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Texas

SP+ Says Texas Is a Contender, but Connelly Hedges the Arch Effect

by: RT Young07/27/25
Arch Manning
Arch Manning (Jordan Godfree-Imagn Images)

ESPN’s Bill Connelly released his SEC Preview with SP+ ratings. In case you need a refresher, SP+ is an advanced rating system which measures team efficiency based on opponent-adjusted play-by-play data. While not a perfect metric, one thing I like about SP+ is it accounts for how an opponent is actually playing. It’s a forward-looking, data-driven system designed to predict future outcomes, not just reflect past results.

The Longhorns come in at fifth in SP+ and third in the SEC behind Georgia and Alabama.

-One big observation after reading Connelly and SP+ on Texas: Hedge the Arch Hedge.

Connelly agrees the Longhorns will be number one in the forthcoming polls and SP+ projects them number one on defense. But, Texas ranking 82nd in returning offensive production and 12th in strength of schedule tempers the Arch Manning hype—slightly. Though Connelly writes: “There really is a chance that Arch Manning is as good as we’ve been assuming he’d become for years, and if he is, then nothing else matters all that much.”

However, one of Connelly’s greatest what-ifs for the season asks: what if Arch is merely very good? That could elevate concerns elsewhere and it causes Connelly to say, “I have a lot more questions about Texas than I do the typical (expected) No. 1 team.”

I don’t subscribe to said questions, though. Mainly because I don’t have many about Manning. Texas fans know that Manning will unlock previously hidden elements of Sarkisian’s offense. Ryan Wingo and DeAndre Moore Jr. look to take a Matthew Golden-sized leap, and the addition of Jack Endries should fill the hole Gunnar Helm left. The offensive line might not have a ton of starts together, but it’s not as “inexperienced” as it might appear to the naked eye. If SP+ is unsure about Manning now, it will break once he gets rolling.

Rapid-fire reactions to the rest of SP+ on the SEC:

– SP+ loves Alabama because of the returning production it has on both sides of the ball. Connelly notes “of the five teams that finished in the SP+ top 10 last season, four rank 81st or worse in returning production, but the fifth, Bama, ranks in the top 30.” I can’t buy the hype, even if Kalen DeBoer is reuniting with OC Ryan Grubb. I think the Tide will be very good, to be sure—Ryan Williams is still only 12 years old. To me, Alabama is getting too big of a bump because of other teams’ uncertainties. And an unproven Ty Simpson, Austin Mack or Keelon Russell starting for the first time gives plenty of room for error to fall off the top pedestal.

– Georgia’s high floor as a program makes up for the fact it could still be a “down year” in Kirby Smart terms.

– Only four SEC teams ARE NOT in the Top 25 in the country for SP+. Luckily, Texas plays all of them: Arkansas, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, and Miss St.

– SP+ faded my offseason crush, South Carolina, while championing LSU and Ole Miss more than I think the old gut-feel-o’meter likes them.

– SP+ and Connelly really like Brent Venables’ defense, so much so: “even just a top-30ish offense, this is a top-15ish team. The ridiculous schedule will put a ceiling on the win total, but the bar for improvement isn’t particularly high.”

– As for the Aggies, they’re 15th in SP+, though the preview paragraph is full of what-ifs that require a “Jump To Conclusions Mat.” The Aggies are white bread with lean brisket in 2025. Maybe they’re just a team destined to go 8–4 again.

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