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Stats Breakdown: What the numbers say about Texas vs. Kentucky

Joe Cookby: Joe Cook11/19/24josephcook89
Anthony Hill
Anthony Hill (Will Gallagher/Inside Texas)

The No. 3 Texas Longhorns are approaching a senior day matchup with the Kentucky Wildcats. The two teams have met just once in their histories. Texas won over Kentucky in Austin in 1951 by a score of 7-6.

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Ahead of their matchup in 2024, here’s what the stats have to say about Saturday’s game.

Standard stats

Via the UT game notes

College Football Insiders

Weekly reminder: The Longhorns are among the nation’s best in almost every advanced statistical category save for defensive rush rate over expected.

What does that measure? According to CFB-Stats’ Parker Fleming, it looks at given down, distance, yard line, and game state, how often do you call designed runs relative to an average team?

Fleming has reiterated that RROE is not a measure of quality. It’s a measure of what opponents are doing against a defense.

For most of these pictures, Red = Bad and Blue = Good. That doesn’t apply for this particular stat, it just illustrates how often a team is calling a designed run relative to an average team.

ESPN FPI

Texas was No. 1in ESPN FPI, just barely ahead of the No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide and No. 3 Ohio State Buckeyes. The Longhorns have a projected record of 11.1-1.6.

Texas has a 38.9% chance of winning out, a 39.1% chance of winning the conference, a 93.0% chance of making the playoffs, a 32.4% chance of making the national championship, and a 19.9% chance of winning the national championship.

Kentucky is ranked No. 46 in FPI.

ESPN SP+

SP+ is a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency.

Texas is ranked No. 3 in overall SP+, just behind No. 2 Alabama and No. 1 Ohio State. The Longhorns are No. 5 in offensive SP+, No. 2 in defensive SP+, and No. 106 in special teams SP+.

Kentucky is ranked No. 39 in overall SP+. The Wildcats are No. 68 in offensive SP+, No. 24 in defensive SP+, and No. 13 in special teams SP+.

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FEI

Texas is No. 2 in FEI, just behind No. 1 Ohio State and ahead of No. 3 Ole Miss. The Longhorns are No. 10 in offensive FEI, No. 1 in defensive FEI, and No. 45 in special teams FEI.

Kentucky is No. 38 in overall FEI, No. 69 in offensive FEI, No. 41 in defensive FEI, and No. 1 in special teams FEI.

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