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Stats Breakdown: What the numbers say about Texas vs. Texas A&M

Joe Cookby: Joe Cook11/26/24josephcook89
Steve Sarkisian
Steve Sarkisian (Will Gallagher/Inside Texas)

It’s time for one last look at the numbers (in the regular season) ahead of the return of the rivalry between Texas and Texas A&M.

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Standard Stats

via the UT Game notes

College Football Insiders

Weekly reminder: The Longhorns are among the nation’s best in almost every advanced statistical category save for defensive rush rate over expected.

What does that measure? According to CFB-Stats’ Parker Fleming, it looks at given down, distance, yard line, and game state, how often do you call designed runs relative to an average team?

Fleming has reiterated that RROE is not a measure of quality. It’s a measure of what opponents are doing against a defense.

For most of these pictures, Red = Bad and Blue = Good. That doesn’t apply for this particular stat, it just illustrates how often a team is calling a designed run relative to an average team.

ESPN FPI

Texas is ranked No. 1 in ESPN’s Football Power Index, just ahead of the No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes and the No. 3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish.

The Longhorns have a projected record of 11.2-1.5. Texas has a 46% chance of winning the conference, a 97.8% chance of making the College Football Playoff, a 35.6% chance of making the national championship game, and a 22.0% chance of winning the program’s fifth national title.

Texas A&M is ranked No. 15 in FPI, good for sixth in the SEC behind No. 1 Texas, No. 4 Alabama, No. 5 Georgia, No. 6 Ole Miss, and No. 8 Tennessee.

ESPN SP+

SP+ is a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency created by ESPN’s Bill Connelly. The Longhorns currently rank No. 4 in overall SP+.

Texas is No. 4 in offensive SP+, No. 2 in defensive SP+, and No. 115 in special teams SP+.

Texas A&M is No. 12 in overall SP+.

The Aggies are No. 18 in offensive SP+, No. 18 in defensive SP+, and No. 8 in special teams SP+.

FEI

Texas is the No. 2 team in FEI, which creates rankings based off are opponent-adjusted possession efficiency data representing the scoring advantage per non-garbage possession a team or unit would expect to have on a neutral field against an average opponent. Texas A&M is No. 19.

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Texas is No. 14 in offensive FEI, No. 2 in defensive FEI, and No. 24 in special teams FEI.

Texas A&M is No. 28 in offensive FEI, No. 23 in defensive FEI, and No. 16 in special teams FEI.

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