Texas' first bye aligns with many CFP deciding matchups around the college football world

This Texas bye really couldn’t have come at a better time.

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Not only could the Longhorns have used the break to get healthier ahead of big matchups at Florida and vs. Oklahoma, but it came during the earliest week of the year with true playoff implications.

Sure, some games from Week 1 caused shakeups, but there were 11 more games to go for the likes of Alabama and even the Longhorns to make up for bad losses. Georgia–Tennessee last week was a treat, but not much else happened.

But Week 5 of the College Football season is set to cause one of the biggest shakeups in rankings we’ve seen all season. And luckily for us, we’ll be there for all of it.

Firstly, the Big 12 is pushing to be a two-bid league this season. The ACC is crumbling, and the top conferences may just force each other out with trades of wins and losses. Texas Tech is the current favorite, but they’re on a bye. Instead, we’re treated to a late-night BYU @ Colorado, a matchup between a sneaky good Arizona team and Iowa State, and a huge game with TCU traveling to Arizona State. Those are arguably the four most likely teams to push for a second bid in the conference, or just win it outright. A TCU win would all but end ASU’s chances at the playoffs, and the likelihood of having to hear the nickname “Jake the Snake” 100 times on your TV screen.

A few more games keep it interesting before a legendary duo of night games. Every game from this point forward decides Notre Dame’s fate, and this is probably their second-toughest matchup remaining. The struggling Fighting Irish will head to Fayetteville in a must-win game for both programs. The Irish are fighting for playoff hopes in Week 5, while Sam Pittman is just hoping to retain his job after the year, with the current trajectory the Razorbacks are on.

Ohio State has its own intriguing matchup, traveling out west to Washington. This truly feels like a trap game. While it won’t be as difficult as hosting Penn State or The Game, overlooking this matchup could spoil No. 1 seed hopes for the Buckeyes. Washington is probably one of the best 25 teams in the nation and enters undefeated. A giant win against Ohio State enters them into the CFP conversation. Texas is almost rooting for the Buckeyes here.

In the SEC, we see two important but not groundbreaking matchups. Auburn is probably going to lose on the road at Texas A&M, but you never know. The Tigers starting 0-1 in the SEC isn’t good, but they aren’t out of the CFP conversation with just one loss. They’d catapult back into the Top 25 with a win.

Tennessee then finds itself in a sneaky tough matchup at Mississippi State. With a newfound confidence from the fans, the cowbells will be out and loud in Starkville, and the Bulldogs have already terrorized the Sun Devils at home this year. Tennessee should win, but a loss greatly changes the conversation about the Volunteers’ chances and the strength of this Bulldog team, which faces the Longhorns in October.

But the really important one at 3:30 is LSU @ Ole Miss, with serious playoff implications on the line. LSU needs another big win with how badly Clemson is aging this year, and with a gauntlet of matchups in Week 8 and 9, Ole Miss has to win this game at home. These are two of the top 15 teams in the nation, both in the SEC, battling it out. It’s a must-watch for Texas fans.

But of course, the pièce de résistance comes in the night slate: Oregon @ Penn State on NBC, Alabama @ Georgia on ABC. What a week of football.

These games could really go either way. Neither Oregon nor Penn State has been tested all year, so we really don’t know what these teams have in them. It’s the opposite in the SEC, with Alabama already losing to Florida State and Georgia narrowly beating Tennessee last week. Part of me believes in the Alabama win, even in Athens.

No matter what, a loss for any of these teams greatly shakes up the landscape. Oregon and Georgia can probably withstand a loss more than the other two teams, but Alabama is already playing from behind. Penn State will have to go to Ohio State this season, then face Indiana the next week. Oregon’s hardest game rest of season is hosting Indiana. A loss for either of those teams would drastically hurt their chances at a CFP run.

Either way, this slate is good for Texas. Teams ranked ahead of you losing will always be a good thing, unless it messes with your own strength of schedule calculations. The Longhorns could easily find themselves in the top-five rankings three weeks from now if they emerge from this bye week a better team, and if the programs above fall flat in some of the biggest games of their seasons.

All I know is, I’ll be seated comfortably on my couch, quad-boxing that 3:30 slate of games before switching between the SEC and Big Ten powerhouses for the rest of the night. Maybe bye weeks aren’t all that bad.