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Texas with the fourth best odds to win 2025 CFB playoffs

Eric Nahlinby: Eric Nahlin01/27/25
Arch Manning, Texas
Arch Manning, Texas - © Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images

The 2025 College Football title chase is shaping up to be the most open I can recall. Many fans are understating their team’s chances to win it all due to significant attrition. The only problem is, every traditional power is suffering significant losses, particularly at quarterback. Fans tend to know best what their team is losing.

Ohio State +500

Ohio State might set the record for NFL Draft picks in one draft. While the Buckeyes return a lot of talent, notably Jeremiah Smith and Caleb Downs, they lose a whole lot more. They’re also transitioning from steady veteran Will Howard to high upside but young Julian Sayin at quarterback. Oh, and of course, theyl need a defensive coordinator after Jim Knowles left for Penn State.

Georgia +600

Per the usual, Georgia is losing a lot of talent to the NFL. The Bulldogs are used to that but it doesn’t appear they’ve been replenishing with comparable talent to what they’ve been losing in recent years. In general, something seems off, unless you only watched them against Texas. Losing quarterback Carson Beck might actually help but a number of other losses, including four potential first rounders won’t. Running back Trevor Etienne, who was perhaps the difference between Texas and Georgia on October 19th, is also gone.

Oregon +650

Oregon loses defensive tackle Derrick Harmon, both offensive tackles, and a handful of other important pieces. The biggest loss might be quarterback Dillon Gabriel. I say might be because I don’t know what to expect from Dante Moore. The former UCLA Bruin is an obviously talented player who was a five-star in the 2023 class. He was the No. 3 overall player when Arch Manning was No. 1. While Moore played sparingly this past year he played quite a bit his true freshman year. He was a mixed bag, throwing 11 touchdowns against 9 interceptions, but he was clearly gifted.

Texas +700

Then there’s Texas. If you’re reading this you’re likely a UT fan and thinking about the number of questions the 2025 team has, including replacing four-starters on offensive line, lack of experience at receiver, issues at running back, and of course, defensive tackle. Those are undoubtedly genuine considerations but the Horns will have one of the top play making QB’s in the country to pair with one of the best defenses. That sets a pretty high floor for a program that has made back to back semifinal appearances.

*****

It’s important to note these odds are only a snapshot of where things sit now. All four of the teams listed above have proven to be proactive in the portal.

Inside Texas expects the Longhorns to be quite active during the spring portal window. More answers for the Horns are likely on the way.

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