The College Football Playoff landscape as it pertains to Texas

You could argue the College Football Playoff has already started.

It may not be the single elimination 12-team tournament that we’ll have in December yet, but each game has teams jockeying for position and positive feedback from the CFP Selection Committee.

Let’s look at the current top 25.

Top 25 in the College Football Playoff rankings from November 4

1. Ohio State
2. Indiana
3. Texas A&M
4. Alabama
5. Georgia
6. Ole Miss
7. BYU
8. Texas Tech
9. Oregon
10. Notre Dame
11. Texas
12. Oklahoma
13. Utah
14. Virginia
15. Louisville
16. Vanderbilt
17. Georgia Tech
18. Miami
19. USC
20. Iowa
21. Michigan
22. Missouri
23. Washington
24. Pittsburgh
25. Tennessee

The projected bracket

Why no Texas even though they are ranked No. 11? A reminder from Monday…

If Texas can’t win the SEC title, then it must

• Be in the top 11 of the final rankings and ahead of at least one conference champion, likely the highest-ranked Group of Six conference champion
• Be in the top 10 of the final rankings and ahead of at least two conference champions, likely the highest-ranked Group of Six conference champion and one other Power Four conference champion.

The SEC

In laying out the race to Atlanta for the SEC Championship, IT also laid out the playoff picture for the eight teams that have two or fewer total losses this season.

• Alabama: LSU, Oklahoma, Eastern Illinois, at Auburn
• Texas A&M: At Missouri, South Carolina, Samford, at Texas
• Ole Miss: The Citadel, Florida, bye, at Mississippi State
• Georgia: At Mississippi State, Texas, Charlotte, vs. Georgia Tech
• Texas: Bye, at Georgia, Arkansas, Texas A&M
• Oklahoma: Bye, at Alabama, Missouri, LSU
• Vanderbilt: Auburn, bye, Kentucky, at Tennessee
• Missouri: Texas A&M, Mississippi State, at Oklahoma, at Arkansas

Every team plays at least one CFP contender in the month of November except for Ole Miss and Vanderbilt. The Rebels have a fairly clear path to the CFP so long as they don’t trip up against Florida or Mississippi State.

The SEC should get at least four teams in, one more than last year when it put Georgia, Texas, and Tennessee in the CFP. The big question is, will it get five? And if so, who is that fifth spot at the expense of? Notre Dame? The ACC? The Big 12?

Any SEC team that adds a third overall loss puts itself in a precarious position.

Georgia also has an interesting task at the end of the year with Georgia Tech, a contender in their own right at the current juncture.

It’s nearly impossible to envision a one-loss team from the SEC getting left out. The intrigue is if a team has two losses. Looking at Texas, if the only stumbles on the Longhorns’ resume are Ohio State and Florida, they’ll be sweating Selection Sunday but they should feel good about being the highest ranked two-loss team. After all, according to ESPN, Texas is No. 9 in strength of record, No. 11 in strength of schedule, and No. 5 in remaining strength of schedule. Oklahoma, who Texas defeated head-to-head, is one spot back of the Longhorns in all those categories.

The Big 10

After Indiana and Ohio State, who are looking like CFP certainties, the Big 10 has a lot to sort out.

Let’s limit the contenders to Indiana, Ohio State, Michigan, Oregon, Iowa, USC, and Washington. Sorry, Northwestern.

• Indiana: At Penn State, Wisconsin, bye, at Purdue
• Ohio State: At Purdue, UCLA, Rutgers, at Michigan
• Michigan: Bye, at Northwestern, at Maryland, Ohio State
• Oregon: At Iowa, Minnesota, USC, at Washington
• Iowa: Oregon, at USC, Michigan State, at Nebraska
• USC: Northwestern, Iowa, at Oregon, UCLA
• Washington: at Wisconsin, Purdue, at UCLA, Oregon

The more contenders battle, the more teams will drop. Ohio State and Indiana remaining on a Big 10 Championship collision course probably is best for the Longhorns. Texas seeing Oregon slip up would work well for burnt orange interests. If Texas continues to win, other Big 10 resumes likely won’t overpower the Longhorns’.

Notre Dame

Maybe the most controversial subject from last night’s rankings. Notre Dame is 6-2 with two losses by four total points. One was to a Miami team that has faltered but finds itself, somehow, in the top 20. The ‘Canes are on the outside looking in to the ACC race, so Notre Dame’s schedule can’t really get stronger by a — sigh — quality loss to a Power Conference champion. The other was to No. 3 Texas A&M.

That said, the Irish have handled their schedule, one that ranks No. 15 in strength of record but a lacking No. 23 in strength of schedule. The Irish’s remaining strength of schedule? It ranks No. 70. This is why you’ll see Marcus Freeman try to score a lot in the coming weeks.

Notre Dame: Navy, at Pitt, Syracuse, at Stanford

The Big 12

Things get interesting this week in the Big 12 as BYU travels to Texas Tech. If the Red Raiders lose, they will be begging for Arizona State to slip up considering Tech has tiebreakers over Utah and Houston.

Interesting will be the norm, as Cincinnati hosts BYU in a few weeks.

Put simply, Texas needs the Big 12 to be a one-bid league. Texas winning out should help the Longhorns climb.

• BYU: At Texas Tech, TCU, at Cincinnati, UCF
• Texas Tech: BYU, UCF, bye, at West Virginia
• Cincinnati: Bye, Arizona, BYU, at TCU
• Houston: UCF, bye, TCU, at Baylor
• Utah: Bye, at Baylor, Kansas State, at Kansas
• Arizona State: Bye, West Virginia, at Colorado, Arizona

The ACC

Virginia’s status as the No. 1 team in the ACC vaulted them past Texas and into the 12-team bracket, knocking the Longhorns out of the hypothetical field in the process.

The ACC being a one-bid league also would help the Longhorns. A two-bid ACC that somehow gets Virginia and one of Georgia Tech, Pitt, and Louisville in would make life difficult for Texas.

The Longhorns may just want the Cavs to win out to make things simple for everyone.

A situation where

1. One of the Big 12 or ACC becomes a two-bid league AND
2. Notre Dame makes the field

Might spell the end for Texas’ hopes to make it three straight Playoffs. However, so many of these teams play each other, Georgia Tech battles Georgia, and Pitt plays Notre Dame. Teams will fall off in the coming weeks.

• Virginia: Wake Forest, at Duke, bye, Virginia Tech
• Georgia Tech: Bye, at Boston College, Pitt, vs. Georgia
• Pittsburgh: Bye, Notre Dame, at Georgia Tech, Miami
• Louisville: Cal, Clemson, at SMU, Kentucky
• SMU: at Boston College, by, Louisville, at Cal
• Duke: at UConn, Virginia, at North Carolina, Wake Forest

Yeah, this will sort itself out.

The Group of Six

There’s not a whole lot Texas can do here. Considering Boise State breaking into the top-10 and earning a first-round bye last year was an anomaly, this year’s Playoff will look more like we expect it to with the Group of Six representative sliding into the No. 12 spot. No G6 team was ranked in the top 25, but Memphis was the committee’s “highest ranked” G6 team in Tuesday’s rankings. No result really affects Texas, but Steve Sarkisian‘s program has to ensure, as stated above, it’s ahead of whoever this team is.

Some contenders and their journeys home

• Navy (7-1): at Notre Dame, USF, bye, at Memphis, AAC title?, Army
• Memphis (8-1): Tulane, at ECU, bye, Navy, AAC title?
• North Texas (8-1): Bye, at UAB, at Rice, Temple, AAC title?
• San Diego State (7-1): at Hawaii, Boise State, San Jose State, New Mexico, MWC title?
• James Madison (7-1): at Marshall, App State, Washington State, at Coastal Carolina, SBC title?

Winning out should solve everything for Texas. Things get especially hairy if Texas loses one of its final three games and misses the SEC Championship.

But this is what’s at play for the Longhorns and what they might be looking for.