The Freaky Parallels Between Quinn Ewers' 2022 and Arch Manning's 2025

Same coach, same system, same first-year starting EPA numbers. Quinn Ewers‘ 2022 and Arch Manning‘s 2025 are statistical twins. One leaned on Bijan Robinson and Xavier Worthy. The other leans on his legs. Even with a less talented supporting cast and a shakier offensive line in 2025, Manning replicating Ewers’ numbers in a key category feels almost uncanny.

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Right now an advanced metric that has taken over football is called Expected Points (EP) and Expected Points Added (EPA). EP in its simplest description is an opponent adjusted metric that estimates how much a player contributes to the point total. You will often see this used in a per play format, considering some players see a larger play volume than others. However, its real strength is telling you the areas of play that a player will typically perform better in.

EPA is the average change in EP for every snap of the ball. You will often see a ‘Pass EPA’ or ‘Rush EPA.’ Pass EPA is the expected change in points with every pass, and the same goes for Rush EPA for every carry.

That being said, there is a remarkable similarity for Ewers and Manning in their first seasons as starters. When looking at EPA, both Manning (2025) and Ewers (2022) saw borderline identical numbers save for a couple rates and obvious differences in play.

Something interesting is the numbers that are identical are all numbers that you would typically associate with the team’s performance as a whole on offense. These are areas that show how effective the QB may be at operating the Steve Sarkisian offense.

•Early Down EPA/Play
•Late Down EPA/Play
•Explosive Rate
•EPA/Play
•EPA Lost Turnovers

Meanwhile you can see a clear strength in Passing EPA for Ewers, while Manning has his strength in Rushing EPA. The two QBs have individual strength in the area that the other lacked in. Despite taking different paths, they have both wound up at the same destination EPA wise.

This is also not the first time that the two have had a freakishly similar comparison.

Both QBs had nearly the same exact numbers, versus the same opposing team, at the same exact venue, in their first ever starts as Texas Longhorns. Ewers’ first start was versus ULM in 2022, and Manning’s was also against the Warhawks in 2024.

The freakish similarities in that game don’t end there either. Ewers threw his first career interception on his first drive as a starter and the same happened with Manning.

However, the similarities have to come to an end somewhere. That is in the makeup of the roster. The 2022 team had offensive firepower that would easily have the edge over this 2025 squad, as well as the better performing offensive line.

It’s hard not to participate in the “what ifs.” What if Manning had Robinson in the backfield? What if Manning had Worthy running deep? Robinson with Manning’s ability to run the zone read would be flat out unfair, and Worthy would’ve likely enjoyed a fantastic sophomore season with a QB who excels in the deep ball.

The paths are extremely similar, yet very different at the same time.

Will the similarities continue for Manning and Ewers? If so, things could be looking pretty good on the 40 Acres over the next 12 months.

Sarkisian is well known for his development of QBs, and that is certainly noticeable when looking at Ewers improvement from year one to year two. With an improved cast around him and with more experience, Ewers enjoyed a successful season.

Will Sarkisian develop Manning at the same rate as Ewers? Will the similarities continue?

These are all good questions, and Texas fans will have to wait for the answers.