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The real reason Texas at 9-3, and the Ohio State scheduling, should be viewed differently

by: Evan Vieth11 hours ago

Even with the Lane Kiffin saga unfolding all weekend, the story of Rivalry Week, at least on social media, was Steve Sarkisian’s comments after Texas’ win against Texas A&M last weekend.

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Sarkisian made additional points in his post-game presser, basically making the argument that without a game scheduled against the best team in the nation, on the road, this would be a shoo-in CFP team.

This, of course, sparked controversy.

‘Don’t lose to 4-8 Florida’.
‘You wanted the SEC, this is the SEC’.
‘Three losses = out’.

We all know, of course, that most of these are fallacies, maybe outside of the Florida loss. Yes, Texas did lose to an eventual four-win team, one that had lost to USF at home just a few weeks prior. It is a fair critique, but the context of the argument is flawed.

Let’s talk about Texas’ schedule. Heading into Week 13, these were Texas’ nine P4 opponents by FEI power ratings, a way to look at how strong a team is outside of its record.

@ No. 1
@ No. 5
vs No. 9
vs No. 10
N vs No. 12
@ No. 39
@ No. 42
vs No. 44
@ No. 48

This is, by far and away, the hardest schedule of any team actually competing for the CFP. It really isn’t even close. It’s almost unfathomable to play five top-12 teams, just two of which were at home.

There’s a concept I have really come to enjoy when talking about bubble playoff teams that I first saw on KFord Ratings. It’s the idea that we should be judging bubble teams on the expectations of the 12th-best team in the nation. What would you expect the No. 12 team in the country to do with this schedule?

For this season, that would be closer to No. 10, as the 11th and 12th best teams will be left out of this 12-team playoff in favor of two auto-bids from the ACC, AAC or Sun Belt.

So, return to that list of teams, then look through the lens of the 10th-best team in the nation. How many wins would you expect them to have?

I think you’d be crazy to say anything higher than 8.

You’d be expected to lose those two away games, and the odds of going even 1-2 against those next three teams is probably about 35%.

Playing Ohio State and Georgia on the road are pretty much automatic losses for teams at this skill level. EVERY SINGLE BUBBLE TEAM WOULD’VE LOST THESE GAMES, maybe outside of Notre Dame, but they are a unique case.

What you are telling Texas, if they don’t make the Playoff, is that scheduling Ohio State gives you zero margin for error, no matter who the rest of your schedule is.

If it is truly as binary as two losses gets you in, but three keeps you out, it truly does dumb down a schedule to two games. Disregard that they beat three top-12 teams, something no other program has done this season. Disregard that they also had to go on the road to other competitive programs around the No. 40 spot.

Given what we know about the true strength of this team, not the logo it has, or the preseason expectations (because neither of those matters in this process), we should not expect them to beat Ohio State and Georgia. Any team competing on the bubble would have those losses written in, unless they have some improbable performance.

So no matter what third game Texas lost, it seems like they would be out of the Playoff. At least that’s the precedent that’s been set so far in the rankings. If that is truly the idea, then the standards we are setting for our teams are completely flawed.

Notre Dame has played just three top-30 teams in FEI rankings: A&M, Miami and USC. They only won one.

But from the looks of it, they are waltzing into the Playoff.

This is a flawed standard. The 10th-best team in the nation is expected to be 10-2 with that schedule. Texas, on the other hand, is overperforming its schedule by one win. Isn’t that the whole idea of the playoff? Letting the most deserving team in, given their schedule difficulty.

Now think about what this schedule would look like if Texas played the out of conference slate Vanderbilt, a 10-2 CFP competitor, had.

Their only P4 game was against Virginia Tech, the No. 80 FEI team.

This, clearly, is a game Texas would’ve been able to win. Suddenly, look at the conversations.

‘Texas is 10-2 with wins over Vanderbilt, A&M and Oklahoma. If anything, they should have a bye!’

Suddenly, the Longhorns would have margin for error. They would lose against Georgia, while also having the ability to lose to another SEC team on their schedule. Vanderbilt got that grace; they lost to a Texas team FEI would’ve favored them over. As did Oklahoma. Notre Dame lost two of their three important games. Miami lost to Louisville.

You see how all of these teams have a mulligan, but Texas currently doesn’t, because the committee seemingly can’t bake in the idea that Texas is expected to lose that game against Ohio State.

So yes, Texas lost @ Florida. It was a bad loss. If they hadn’t done that, they would be in the Playoff.

But what if they won that game and lost to Oklahoma on a neutral field, a team clearly in the Playoff with two losses. Would we still be leaving them out? If so, it would continue the idea that the committee really only cares about the loss column, not the schedules these teams play.

So, yes, don’t lose to Florida, but Texas scheduling Ohio State is what ultimately cost them, because they had zero margin for error.

We don’t know what the committee will do, but after the lack of upsets and the precedent they’ve created in past rankings where Texas already should’ve been higher than No. 16, we aren’t feeling confident.

Texas will take this as a sign. They played four of the top seven SEC teams this season. That will happen again, and they’ll once again have zero margin for error.

This is why this out-of-conference scheduling debate needs to be had. If they truly are kept out of the Playoff, they need to take the path of least resistance. Look at what Ole Miss, Indiana, Oregon and Vanderbilt did in OOC scheduling this year. Emulate that.

It really is an uphill battle, as a lot of the teams they are competing with have great arguments as well. Alabama is in the SECCG, they should be in. BYU is 11-1 with its only loss to the No. 8 team in FEI, Texas Tech. They should be in. And even if I don’t fully agree with the take, Oklahoma beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa. Even with H2H and a much harder schedule, they won’t leave Alabama out.

But Texas sitting behind Notre Dame, Miami, Utah and Vanderbilt would be completely incorrect.


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