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The Texas Longhorns have an odd relationship with third downs

by: Evan Vieth3 hours ago
Texas-362246
Texas quarterback Arch Manning - Dr. Michael Huang, Kentucky Sports Radio/On3

Throughout this season, a key discussion point behind the downfalls of this Texas team has been its ability to convert on third downs.

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Against Ohio State, they went just 5-of-14. Against Florida, it was an abysmal 3-of-11. Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian had zeroed in on the main issue behind the Longhorns’ struggles on those money downs: they were finding themselves in far too many third-and-longs.

So, heading into the Oklahoma game, Sarkisian made a conscious change to the game plan. The Longhorns were going to bank on a strong defensive performance and focus solely on getting into third-and-manageables through the run game.

It worked extremely well. The Texas offense scored 16 points to Oklahoma’s six, converting 10 of 17 third downs and never once having to attempt a fourth-down conversion. They started the game with four straight third downs of long distance but settled down afterward.

In the second half, Texas converted eight of 11 third downs. They only faced a 3rd-and-8 or longer on four of those, one of which came on a pure clock-killing drive deep in the fourth.

Heading into the game against Kentucky, expectations seemed clear: utilize that same outside zone running scheme and shorter route concepts to bully an inferior Kentucky team and find that same offensive success.

Wouldn’t you know it — that didn’t happen.

Texas’ offense turned in its worst performance of the Sarkisian era, converting just five of 16 third downs.

Here’s where it gets weird, though:

Three of Texas’ five conversions came on plays of eight or more yards.

As Sarkisian put it:

“We actually were pretty effective on our third-and-longs,” Sarkisian chuckled on Monday. “Where we were ineffective was on third-and-one to six. We were one-for-seven on Saturday night. That’s where we have to be productive.”

As with most things regarding this Texas offense, you can look at it as a glass-half-full or glass-half-empty situation.

Texas actually made some really good plays on third-and-long. Arch Manning showed three different types of wins: a pure scramble, a moving throw, and a step up in the pocket. Both of the last two beat strong zone coverage. If Texas can clean up those third-and-shorts, similar to how they operated against Oklahoma, they might actually have the offensive formula needed to win games going forward. He had a few stellar 3rd and long wins as well against the Sooners.

But there’s always the other side. Manning missed a lot of freebies on third down, and Sarkisian didn’t do him many favors. The first third-and-short saw two defenders blow through seven blockers on a trick play.

Another saw Manning miss a wide-open Ryan Wingo on the easiest mesh pattern you’ll ever see.

Later in the first half, Sark called a QB draw on 3rd-and-8. The second half was a mess. Manning missed throws, the offensive line gave up consistent pressure, and the QB run game wasn’t working. It was a disaster.

It’s tough to evaluate this offense from a neutral perspective. They clearly have the pieces to form a cohesive group capable of putting up 20 points per game — probably all this defense and special teams need. But Manning keeps making costly mistakes, the offensive line keeps allowing free pressures, and Sarkisian isn’t doing any of the 20 or so guys he uses on offense many favors with his play-calling.

Keep an eye on those third downs against Mississippi State on Saturday. I’d bet a good amount of money that’s what makes or breaks this Texas team.

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