This could be the year Texas finally produces a 4000-yard passer

The NCAA officially recognizes 30 Division I-A or Football Bowl Subdivision rushers with over 2000 yards in a season, with Texas accounting for two of them via Ricky Williams in 1998 and D’Onta Foreman in 2016.

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Yet while Texas has boasted plenty of phenomenal rushers in its history, it has yet to produce an individual 4000-yard passer even in an era where teams can play wide open offense in as many as 13, 14, 15, or even 16 games. It has only produced a 3500-yard passer three times: Colt McCoy threw for a program-record 3859 yards in 13 games in 2008, Sam Ehlinger put 3663 yards up in 13 games in 2019, and McCoy followed his 2008 record-setting year with 3521 yards in 14 games in 2009.

Much of that has to do with Texas’ history on offense. The Longhorns were the program that brought the Wishbone into college football. They followed the Wishbone era with basic I-formation principles, not electing to bring in newfangled systems like the Run-N-Shoot or the Air Raid. Texas’ adaptation of the Spread offense didn’t really take place until the 2000s.

Meanwhile, programs like Texas Tech, Houston, Hawaii, and Oklahoma State can boast 5000-yard passing seasons. Even Alabama and Oklahoma, programs who rode the Wishbone to success, have players who topped 4500 passing yards before the expanded CFP began last year.

Could Arch Manning finally put Texas’ name on that list?

To be sure, the Longhorns have had 4000 total passing yard seasons. The Longhorns put 4008 yards up in 2008, tallied 4047 yards in 2023, and a recorded a program best 4460 yards in 2024 in 16 games. Texas posted 7000 total yards in 2024, a school record.

Yet no individual has crossed that 4000-yard threshold.

Though they were previously mentioned, it doesn’t take an Air Raid or Run-N-Shoot system to get to 4000 yards. In fact, it’s possible in Steve Sarkisian‘s system. Mac Jones passed for 4500 yards in 13 games in 2020. Sarkisian probably would have been able to claim a 4000-yard passer in 2019 via Tua Tagovailoa had he not gotten injured late in that season. Still, Tagovailoa and Jones combined for 4343 yards in 13 games.

That’s a proof of concept for Sarkisian as a play-caller, but it hasn’t happened during his time as a head coach. Could Manning be the one to hit the mark?

Six players notched 4000 yards passing in 2024. Only two hit that total in 2023. In 2022, eight players reached that plateau. Nine accomplished the feat in 2021.

That goes to show it is not a simple task. It requires a competent play-caller. It requires good receivers. It requires health, durability, and protection. As mentioned, Tagovailoa would have probably done it had he not injured his hip late in 2019.

Doesn’t Manning have all that?

Manning’s first year as a starter will feature Ryan Wingo, DeAndre Moore, and Emmett Mosley V as his top-line wide receivers. All have production at the college level and another step for each is more likely than a step back.

He’ll also have a proven tight end in Jack Endries as a safety valve. Though Texas is replacing four O-line starters, all the candidates have multiple years of experience in the program.

The most exciting part of Manning’s skill set is the best piece of supporting evidence for an argument in favor of him hitting 4K: he throws bombs.

Manning was 8-for-19 for 327 yards with four touchdowns and one interception last year on passes 20+ yards down the field according to Pro Football Focus. That resulted in a scorching yards per attempt of 17.2. To compare, Quinn Ewers had a ypa of 11.6 on similar throws.

On passes 10-19 yards down the field, Manning was 11-for-18 for 228 yards and two touchdowns. PFF rewarded him with six “big time throws” on attempts at least 10 yards down the field, defined as “a pass with excellent ball location and timing, generally thrown further down the field and/or into a tighter window.”

Throwing downfield and completing those attempts are surefire ways to rack up the type of yardage needed to approach 4000. Plus, it would add more games to the list of 400-yard passing performances from Longhorn quarterbacks. Ewers has produced the only one in the Sarkisian era when he hit for 452 in the 2023 Big 12 Championship game versus Oklahoma State. Texas has eight total in its history.

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Between his own skill, the Texas system, and the chance to play a significant amount of games, Manning has a chance to do something no other quarterback in Longhorn history has done. It would finally bring Texas into the company of countless other programs who have had big passing seasons across multiple eras.