Way-Too-Early College Football Playoff Outlook: Where Texas Stands Entering SEC Play

On Friday, I wrote about how this weekend’s matchups could have major implications on the future of the College Football Playoff.

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Friday night saw Florida State lose a thriller to Virginia—go Hoos! Arizona State also had an uninspiring home win that nudged them back into the Top 25.

On Saturday, Illinois toughed one out against USC, Tennessee and Georgia Tech survived in overtime, Notre Dame got Sam Pittman fired, and the top 12 saw plenty of change.

Texas A&M and Indiana had unimpressive wins that somehow boosted them in the AP Poll, while Ole Miss jumped into the top four after beating LSU. Later, Oregon took down Penn State in Happy Valley, and Alabama walked into Athens and beat Georgia, the SEC favorite. What a shakeup.

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Where We Stand

There’s still a lot of football left, but three teams are clearly in the best shape. Ohio State already has a great win over Texas and added Washington this weekend. They also avoid Oregon, the No. 2 team, in the regular season, which benefits both squads. The third is Miami, comfortably atop the ACC and still undefeated. If I had to plant my flag right now, those three would be in my playoff field.

The G5 will get one slot, and Texas Tech looks like the clear Big 12 favorite. That’s five spots. The discussion gets interesting for the next seven.

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Can the Big 12 or ACC Get a Second Team?

It’s a wild question, but worth asking. Florida State just lost to Virginia, who might actually be the No. 2 team in the ACC. Can Virginia, FSU, Louisville, or Georgia Tech realistically go 10–2 and make it without winning the league? Virginia has the advantage of not playing Miami and already owns a win over FSU. They’re my current No. 1 CFP sleeper, though they visit Louisville next week.

The Big 12 has the same problem. Who’s No. 2? Utah, who got embarrassed by Tech? BYU, who barely beat a bad Colorado team? Iowa State is undefeated but looks fraudulent. They’re the best hope for a two-bid league, but I’m not buying it.

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The SEC Picture

The SEC has eight teams in good playoff positions and two more on the fringe. Here’s how they stack up:

Undefeated with a big win: Ole Miss, Texas A&M
One loss with a big win: Alabama, Georgia
Oklahoma Tier (Michigan at home isn’t elite): Oklahoma
One loss but no big win: LSU, Tennessee, Texas
Frisky and undefeated, but needs more proof: Missouri, Vanderbilt

Mississippi State isn’t terrible, but its climb to the playoff is already too steep. You can argue about the level of wins for Oklahoma and LSU, but these feel like their correct spots given Clemson’s spiral and the difference between vs Michigan and @ Notre Dame.

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What It Means for Texas

Texas faces a brutal schedule. They could play four top-10 opponents in Ohio State, Oklahoma, Georgia, and Texas A&M, plus ranked Vanderbilt and road games at Mississippi State and Florida.

The problem is simple: Texas won’t get in with nine wins. They can only afford one more loss. Dropping three of their major five games, or slipping against a heavy underdog, would shut the door.

Still, the Longhorns could play spoiler. A win at Georgia would knock the Bulldogs out of SEC title contention and into an awkward ranking spot. Oklahoma’s schedule is so tough that a Red River loss might be the beginning of a three-loss season.

LSU now has to go 3–1 against Vanderbilt, A&M, Alabama, and Oklahoma—brutal.

Meanwhile, Ole Miss is in a prime position. They only face two more top-half SEC teams. Even if they lose both road games to Georgia and Oklahoma, they’d still likely make the playoff if they win out otherwise.

Bottom line: Texas is still in control.

With six teams already looking strong (if you include Ole Miss), that leaves six more spots mostly for SEC and Big Ten teams. LSU, Missouri, Vanderbilt, and maybe Tennessee are outside looking in. Texas sits in a group of five SEC teams with solid playoff chances—and they play three of them. They control a lot of what happens this season.

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The Big Ten and Notre Dame

Outside of Ohio State and Oregon, the Big Ten has questions.

• Penn State is struggling with a strange schedule.
• Indiana looks good.
• Michigan is slightly worse but has an easy path.
• The rest are flawed and likely irrelevant.

The league is only five deep, but all five have a shot. Four should comfortably make it.

Notre Dame, meanwhile, is in trouble. They already have two losses, and even if they win out, their schedule offers little. Arkansas means nothing now, they’ll be heavily favored at home against USC, and the toughest remaining game is…. at Pitt? It’s hard to see them making it. Ari Wasserman has a great piece expanding on this.

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Mapping It Out

Heavily Favored to Make the Playoff:

1. Ohio State
2. Oregon
3. Miami

Very Likely:
4. Texas Tech
5. Ole Miss
6. G5 winner

Good position, but long season ahead:
7. Alabama
8. Texas
9. Georgia
10. Indiana
11. Penn State
12. Michigan
13. Oklahoma
14. Texas A&M

Good team, bad spot:
15. Notre Dame
16. Tennessee
17. LSU

Two-bid hopefuls:
18. Florida State
19. Iowa State
20. Georgia Tech
21. Virginia
22. Utah
23. BYU
24. Louisville

Outside looking in:
25. Vanderbilt
26. Missouri
27. Illinois
28. USC
29. Mississippi State
30. Arizona State

Monitor, but likely irrelevant:
31. Washington
32. Nebraska
33. TCU
34. Cincinnati
35. Maryland