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What data is the CFP selection committee looking at? Is it kind to Texas?

Joe Cookby: Joe Cook12/02/25josephcook89

Back in 2024 when Texas was angling for a strong seed in the College Football Playoff, I posted this note on the Inside Texas Members Only board.

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I would pay very close attention to what ESPN’s Heather Dinich says about the CFP. I think there’s no one in the media who has generated closer connections with the CFP and its committee than Dinich.

To me, her sourcing gives what she writes about the Playoff, projected teams, and even important features the committee might be looking for a lot of weight.

That was true then and it remains true now. Here’s her most recent reporting that has Texas “still in the mix.”

The Longhorns will earn a promotion Tuesday night, but the win against Texas A&M is unlikely to catapult them into the playoff. Texas probably will be stuck behind Miami in part because of its loss to Florida, which Miami beat. Even if Texas Tech knocks BYU out of the top 12 with a win in the Big 12 championship game, bumping up both Miami and Texas, the Longhorns would still be excluded from the field to make room for a conference champion. If BYU and Alabama were knocked out with title game losses, that still probably wouldn’t be enough for Texas to get into the field, because even if Texas reaches No. 11 by default, it would still be excluded during the seeding process for a conference champion.

Now, let’s take a look at her projected top-12 after Saturday’s games.

Heather Dinich’s Projected CFP Rankings for 12/2

  1. Ohio State Buckeyes (12-0)
  2. Indiana Hoosiers (12-0)
  3. Georgia Bulldogs (11-1)
  4. Texas Tech Red Raiders (11-1)
  5. Oregon Ducks (11-1)
  6. Texas A&M Aggies (11-1)
  7. Ole Miss Rebels (11-1)
  8. Oklahoma Sooners (10-2)
  9. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (10-2)
  10. Alabama Crimson Tide (10-2)
  11. BYU Cougars (11-1)
  12. Miami Hurricanes (10-2)

Texas played No. 1, No. 3, No. 6, and No. 8 in that list, going 2-2 in the process with wins over No. 6 and No. 8.

The Longhorns were ranked No. 16 in the most recent CFP rankings release. However, that was before Texas defeated No. 3 Texas A&M and prior to No. 15 Michigan’s loss to No. 1 Ohio State.

Texas obviously needs some help at 9-3 as it competes with other 10-2 teams. And credit is due to Texas sports information director John Bianco for trying to get that help. He’s been on a social media blitz and has put Steve Sarkisian in front of as many microphones and cameras as possible to help make Texas’ case.

For example…

Those principles in the first tweet? Bianco addressed eloquently.

But there’s more to keep in mind. From Dinich in late August…

In the current schedule strength metric, more weight will now be applied to games against strong opponents. A new, added metric of “record strength” will help the committee determine how teams performed against their schedule, rewarding those that beat high-quality opponents while minimizing the penalty of losing to one. These changes will also provide minimal reward for beating a lower-quality opponent while imposing a greater penalty for losing to one.

Historically, the selection committee typically has evaluated in this manner, but adding it to a computerized metric should help codify the process publicly. It could also incentivize athletic directors to continue to schedule marquee matchups between blue-blood programs without fear of being penalized for a loss in the committee meeting room. This is something some FBS commissioners have been publicly pushing for and the CFP has been working on over the past six months.

Still, it remains a subjective system, and none of the major components in the protocol — strength of schedule, common opponents, head-to-head results and other circumstances such as injuries to key players — are weighted.

Texas is flooding the college football ecosystem with messaging that says despite a 9-3 record, its resume is superior to others ahead of it despite those teams claiming 10 wins.

How exactly does Texas rank in record strength? Using ESPN’s strength of record, here are the top 20 teams in SOR with their most recent CFP rank in parenthesis

  1. Indiana (2)
  2. Ohio State (1)
  3. Texas A&M (3)
  4. Oregon (6)
  5. Georgia (4)
  6. BYU (11)
  7. Ole Miss (7)
  8. Alabama (10)
  9. Oklahoma (8)
  10. Texas Tech (5)
  11. Vanderbilt (14)
  12. Texas (16)
  13. Notre Dame (9)
  14. Miami (12)
  15. Utah (13)
  16. Michigan (15)
  17. USC (17)
  18. James Madison (NR)
  19. Navy (NR)
  20. Iowa (NR)
  21. Missouri (NR)
  22. North Texas (NR)
  23. Tulane (24)
  24. Virginia (18)
  25. Illinois (NR)

Obviously, the CFP rankings are lagging behind the SOR rankings from ESPN. Even so, there are clear discrepancies, like the one between Texas Tech’s CFP and SOR rankings. Texas and Notre Dame have similar four-spot differences, albeit in opposite directions.

Last year showed the committee has a hard time making up a two-win difference no matter the circumstances, and both BYU and Texas Tech have 11 wins. Those teams, however, may not be who Texas is truly contending with for the final spot. Plus, a one-win difference has been overcome by the committee’s principles. Just ask Florida State.

Here’s the big note: Of those top 25 teams in strength of record, Texas is the only team with a strength of schedule ranking in the single digits at No. 8. The next closest is No. 11 Alabama, and the Tide has the benefit of adding Georgia as an extra data point this coming Saturday.

There’s plenty of available data to help Texas’ case. While it’s not exactly known what metrics the CFP selection committee is looking at, they could see things like…

  • Massey Ratings listing Texas with the No. 5 strength of schedule
  • ESPN listing Texas with the No. 8 strength of schedule, the best among CFP contenders
  • Sagarin listing Texas at No. 12, one spot ahead of Oklahoma in its ratings
  • Wolfe listing Texas at No. 10 ahead of Alabama, Vanderbilt, Notre Dame, and Miami
  • Billingsley slotting Texas at No. 11 ahead of BYU, Notre Dame, and Miami

Those entities? Those are all computers that once fed into the BCS formula. And for the most part in the 2025 season, the CFP committee and a modified BCS formula have almost been in lock-step.

This is just a small bite of the data that could be in front of the committee that Texas hopes will propel the Longhorns past teams with better win-loss records.

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