What do ratings systems think of the Texas Longhorns after Week 4?

Texas just put out its best performance of the year, blanketing Sam Houston while scoring a touchdown on six of its first seven drives. If Texas had really wanted to run up the score, its 55-0 win might’ve crept closer to the 70s.

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It was also their most efficient game yet. When we take a look at these rating systems, keep in mind that these are forward-looking, meaning play-by-play efficiency is much more important in measuring the strength of a team, not the final score or number in the win column.

According to gameonpaper.com, Texas was in the 95th or higher percentile in expected points added per play, yards per play, yards per dropback, and defensive havoc rate, or the amount of backfield pressure and turnovers the group is creating.

These types of numbers look great no matter who you’re facing, but you’ve got to take into account that Texas was facing a lowly Sam Houston team.

Still, it’s probably the most positive weekend Longhorn fans have had all year. Do rating systems match that?

Kelley Ford Ratings are a bit higher on the Longhorns after this week. Texas jumped .5 points per game above the FBS average, while the entirety of the other top eight teams lost between .3 and 1.4 points. Oklahoma dropped from eighth to 15th despite the win against Auburn. Again, these are forward-thinking stats based on efficiency. Oklahoma didn’t play all that well in its seven-point home win.

Still, Texas remains the fifth-rated team, as Indiana’s blowout of Illinois rightfully shot them up the rankings and into the top four.

Ford has Texas as the No. 1 defense, 48th-ranked offense, and 110th-ranked special teams. The more football being played, the better that last number gets. Despite being the highest power-rated SEC team, Texas is expected to finish third in the conference, according to his rankings. Ole Miss, which is already 2-0 in the conference, has favorable matchups in four of the last six games on its SEC schedule.

SP+ is a ratings system that still isn’t buying Texas. The Longhorns are ranked 13th, with oddly similar rankings to KFord: No. 1 defense, No. 44 offense, and No. 111 special teams. It’s peculiar that they actually look better in those categories but are ranked eight spots lower. This is likely a result of every team ranked ahead of Texas having a special teams unit ranked 41st or better.

The special teams discussion is one we’ve been asked to address frequently. Many of these systems are still using preseason models to inform their data. Slowly, as the season goes on, that will be gradually eliminated from the ratings. Generally, five games are enough to know a team. In Texas’ four games, they have not missed a kick, their punter hovers between the top eight to 15 among Power Four players in many important stats, and their primary punt returner is in the top 15 in yards per attempt. Once the bias of last year’s dreadful unit is shaved off, Texas will receive more beneficial special teams grades and will likely jump even higher in these ratings.

Lastly, FEI has Texas tied for sixth with Penn State and Notre Dame. It’s much more bullish on the offense and special teams, ranking them 22nd and 15th, while Ohio State edges out the Longhorns on defense in this one.

The only teams ahead of Texas in all three rating systems are Oregon, Ohio State, and Alabama, while Georgia, Penn State, Indiana, and Ole Miss are the only ones in the top ten in all three ratings.

Even with the offensive struggles, it’s still hard to claim that this Texas team doesn’t possess the best defense, a top-50 offense, and a strong special teams unit, at least so far. That’s a top team in the country. The paragraph above lists seven teams. It would be hard to argue that Texas isn’t one of the best eight teams in the nation going forward, and still one of the 12 or so most likely groups to make the College Football Playoff.