What rating systems are saying about Texas, and the rest of college football

This rating system series has been a weekly article for me, talking about how Texas is perceived outside of rankings. How good a team is Texas mathematically?

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I almost didn’t do it this week because they hadn’t shown any new data. The Longhorns sat at home while the rest of college football had its best week yet. Texas continues to face criticism for several things it can’t control, such as a lack of a game against an SEC team so far and no P4 wins. This is a discussion for another article, but that’s one of the most ridiculous arguments I’ve ever heard to try to prove Texas has it easy this year.

But I’m going to take this week’s article to not just look at Texas, but the rest of the country. Where does Texas stack up against the field, and what does it need to do to improve?

Here’s a look at the four major rating systems, with Texas’ overall ranking by rating, rank in each of the three phases, and strength of record. Strength of record, in its simplest sense, is where a team should be ‘ranked.’ How well has this team done given the schedule they’ve played, and how different is that from the average expectation of a P4 team?

Texas is, on average, seen as the seventh- or eighth-best team in the nation, with a lackluster offense and the best average defensive rating. The special teams rating has come around a lot. I told you this would happen. Now that we’re five weeks into the season, most of the carryover from last season has been factored out. Texas’ special teams is no longer in the bottom half; it’s actually in a decent spot.

By strength of record, Texas is a bit above average. All of these systems interpret that stat differently. FPI sees them as a team that had three freebies and a loss against their only good competition. They’ve done their job but fell short. FEI sees them as a team that came within seven points on the road against the No. 1 team in the nation and is undefeated otherwise. There are different ways to read this.

But what about the rest of the CFP?

Here’s a fun graphic that can also be found on my Twitter:

This is every team that can be found in the top 15 of any of these rating systems or the AP Poll. Some teams like Florida State, Nebraska, TCU, BYU, and Utah barely fail to qualify, but they’d be around where ISU is.

So what stands out to you?

For me, it’s clear that Texas is still very much in the running as a top team in the nation. They’re tied with Penn State for the fifth-best average rating, and I’d put my money on Texas winning a neutral-field matchup over the Nittany Lions at this point.

Rating systems also aren’t buying either of Texas’ rivals. They see A&M and Oklahoma as two of college football’s most fraudulent teams, along with Miami and Iowa State, who they don’t even rate as a top-25 team.

Let’s narrow this down a tiny bit more. We’re going to take only the top 10 teams, plus Oklahoma and A&M, and look at their offense and defense rankings compared to Texas.

Well, that’s not great. Texas has easily the worst offense of the contenders, with the two rivals and Penn State all struggling on that side of the ball as well. I do not know how these systems calculate the Mateer injury, for reference, but these ratings do seem correct. Oregon has been the best offense in college football, that’s the one bright spot of this Notre Dame team, and most other good teams are in the ‘good’ tier from 9.5–11.5.

That’s more like it!

Texas and Ohio State have the consensus best defenses, with Oregon right behind. You can see why Oregon and Ohio State are the two title favorites. No team is better on both ends than Oregon, and Ohio State has a good enough offense and elite defense. Imagine how good Texas would be with even the 15th-best offense.

Notre Dame gets dinged like crazy here, and that’s the main reason why they aren’t a true title contender right now. It’s odd seeing Georgia that low as well. Oklahoma will be Texas’ second-biggest defensive test this year. If the Longhorns can score 20+ on offense in Red River and win, they will be seen as a top-three team in the nation. Book it.

What a weird spot the Longhorns are in entering SEC play. They have a dominant defense, but the worst offense of any title hopeful. They’re rated like one of the five best teams in the nation and one of the two best in the SEC, yet they have the worst offense of all major SEC title contenders.

Let’s say Texas goes 2-0 in their next two games with above-average offensive performances, or at least top 35 in the country. What are the conversations going to be like then? Texas would be 5-1 with a top-10 win against a top-five defense, and theoretically, the defense would still be one of the two best in the country.

I think dialogue would start getting dangerous about where Texas should be ranked, but more importantly, how well-rated they are. There’s a clear third spot open behind Oregon and Alabama. Right now it’s occupied by Alabama, a team with a worse loss in Week 1 than Texas, whose proven that going to Athens and beating Georgia isn’t impossible. It’s going to be fun to check back in on this in two weeks.