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What rating systems think about the No. 8 Texas Longhorns

by: Evan Vieth09/16/25
Steve Sarkisian
Steve Sarkisian (Mick Walker/Lettermen Row)

Last week we took a look into this same topic for the then-No. 7 Longhorns: how well is this team rated compared to the other top schools in the nation?

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The results came out about as you would’ve expected after a 1-1 start to the season, losing a close one to arguably the best team and winning comfortably against an FCS opponent. Texas was seen as anywhere from the third- to ninth-best team, with most agreeing on around six.

But a lot has changed since then. Even without accounting for some giant wins this weekend from two of their top SEC competitors, Texas played their worst game of the season—a measly 27-10 win over a bad UTEP team. Arch Manning looked bad, and Texas’ offense once again seems like one of the worst in the P4.

So what about this week?

Well, thanks to this guy (thanks, Brandon Curry), I don’t have to make my own averages chart.

Brandon took the rankings from ESPN FPI, SP+, TeamRankings, and KFord Rating and averaged them into a single number—a general power rating score. Though I likely would’ve included FEI instead of TeamRankings, which I’m less familiar with, this seems like a great starting point for this discussion.

Sixth, huh? Do you feel like you’re watching the sixth-best team in the nation every week?

Kelley Ford and FPI still hold out hope for this Longhorn team. KFord did drop them down to No. 5 in the nation but still would favor them on a neutral field over Georgia. You read that right.

That’s all these rating systems are: how many points would you be favored by on a neutral field over the average FBS opponent?

KFord still has Texas as the No. 1 defense in the nation, but the offense has dropped all the way down to No. 55, right next to Florida. Just two SEC teams sit lower than that range. Texas has a bottom-three offense in the SEC.

They’ve also been dropped in those projections to fourth-most likely to lead the SEC in regular season wins, though the difference is just one-third of a win between first and fourth.

FPI also has them at No. 6, behind USC but above Penn State. These rating systems love USC. SP+ is lowest on the Longhorns, ranking them 14th behind the likes of Indiana and Texas Tech. SP+ still ranks Texas as a bottom-three special teams unit, which doesn’t help the cause, and the offense barely cracks the top 50.

So how do you feel about where Texas is? They’re firmly seen as a playoff team, tiered with Ole Miss and USC in the 6–8 range, but are not generally seen as a national title contender. I personally like that spot. The defense may just will this offense into the playoff and a 10-2 record, but I have a feeling some of our readers side closer to SP+ than KFord.

This will continue to be something we look into every Tuesday morning. By around Week 5 or 6, these ratings will begin to completely shed off preseason expectations. Some will still have talent composites integrated, but preseason conceptions about this offense will no longer factor in. I am so curious to see how these look after the Florida game, win or lose.

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