Skip to main content
Texas

What rating systems think of the Texas Longhorns after Red River

by: Evan Vieth13 hours ago
Steve Sarkisian
Steve Sarkisian (Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images)

I’ve been using this weekly article as a nerd-out column for advanced stats and ratings. That’s not going to change this week.

[Sign up for Inside Texas TODAY and get the BEST Longhorns coverage!]

This time, we’re going to go in a bit of a different direction.

Usually, these have been a simple showing of how well Texas is “rated” by different systems. Think of FPI or Kelley Ford Ratings—something you’ll see me retweet on Twitter a lot. Computer algorithms take in multiple points of data to produce a singular number to rate, not rank, every team in college football.

On average, Texas is power-rated as the eighth-best team in the nation. The only teams rated above them in all four of the major rating services are Ohio State, Indiana, and, believe it or not, Notre Dame. The only ones rated ahead in three out of four are Alabama and Oregon. The computers still see a toss-up between the Longhorns, Georgia Bulldogs, and Texas A&M Aggies.

But we’re not as focused on that. Bill Connelly, who runs SP+, made an interesting tweet the other day:

These rating systems will ALWAYS have “priors” assigned to them. I addressed this in an article a few weeks back, but Texas’ strong talent composite and highly rated coaching staff give them a general leg up on the rest of the nation. The same goes for teams like Ohio State and Georgia.

What you see above is purely 2025 performance. Who have been the best teams strictly on the field this year?

There are a few fun takeaways to be had. Texas Tech is No. 1! They’re building a program over there, and they’re the heavy Big 12 favorites.

You can see that Texas, despite two losses, is sandwiched between Nebraska and Memphis as the 17th-best team in the nation. Based on how they’ve played through six games, would you agree with that? The only two-loss team ahead is Notre Dame, which lost to two of the top ten teams, with Iowa not too far behind.

This brings up some interesting discussion for the Longhorns. Say they are good enough to go 3-0 before the bye—where does that leave them?

If they win these games, comfortable or not, they’d have a chance to jump into the top 12 of this no-priors list and probably the top four of most power ratings.

That’s when conversations start getting interesting.

Texas has to travel to Georgia after the bye, but as you can see, they’re actually playing at a lower level than Texas. They’re just lucky to not have had to go to The Swamp yet, I guess.

If these kinds of ratings stay the same, Texas may be the better team entering Athens. We know Texas must win out to make the playoff, but this is easily the biggest test in front of them. And you’re telling me they may have a chance of being favored?

You can’t overlook the A&M game, but ratings get thrown out the window for rivalries of that nature. They have a better team than last year, Texas is probably worse, but they do have the home-field advantage.

Lastly, in pure resume-based stats from Connelly, Texas has the 27th-best resume with the 14th-hardest difficulty. I actually do think a 9-3 SEC team has a chance to make it in this year, but it won’t be Texas. Alabama is the most likely, already possessing the 13th-best resume (feels low) with the fourth-hardest schedule. Their sole loss wasn’t in the SEC, so there’s even a chance they can go 9-3 and make the championship game.

Texas is in a much better spot than they were a week ago, and most algorithms still think they’re one of the eight best teams in the country. If that’s the case, they should head into the bye with two losses. Let’s focus on Kentucky first, though.

You may also like