Skip to main content
Texas

What's next for Baylor?

On3 imageby: Ian Boyd01/03/22Ian_A_Boyd
On3 image
Photo by Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images)

Year two of the Dave Aranda era in Waco was a slam dunk.

The Bears won 12 games for the first time in program history, won their third Big 12 Championship, and for the first time this decade ended a strong season with a New Year’s Six Bowl win, beating down Ole Miss 21-7.

Baylor’s all-time record is 612-578-44 and their turn toward being a winning program is obviously rather recent.

From the Big 12’s inception in 1996, the Bears have gone 76-144 in conference play, but until the 2010 season, the Bears were 14-98 in Big 12 play with four winless seasons (in conference) and seven more with only one Big 12 win. Since the start of the new decade in 2010, the Bears have gone 62-46 with three conference championships. Quite the turnaround.

So what’s next? Where can this program go in the 2020s?

The 2022 Baylor Bears

The first thought has to be toward a repeat.

Dave Aranda is set to sign a contract extension after not leaving for either USC (Lincoln Riley) nor LSU (Brian Kelly). We’ll see if they can hang on to Jeff Grimes or not but Dave Aranda, Ron Roberts, and the defensive staff foundation are likely set in stone.

Roster-wise, on offense Bears are set to return both Gerry Bohanon and Blake Shapen at quarterback (which will be interesting to track in spring given their respective postseason performances), four offensive linemen (including left tackle Connor Galvin), and tight end Ben Sims. Quick aside, my favorite part of the Sugar Bowl was when the analyst spent all this time praising Galvin for avoiding an ineligible receiver penalty and made the video guys dig up the camera view to see him recognize a busted play and get back within three yards.

“Watch Galvin sprint back here! This is high level awareness!”

(Galvin turns around, sees what’s happening, and jogs three steps with all the nonchalance of a zoo bear observing a pesky fly buzzing around his empty feeding dish)

Anyways, they lose all their skill talent though with Abram Smith and Trestan Ebner moving along as well as Tyquan Thornton and R.J. Sneed at wide receiver.

Those losses are pretty substantial, although perhaps not crippling.

Trestan Ebner ran for 800 yards, went over 1,000 total yards including receiving yards, and was a field-flipper in the kick and punt return games. Tyquan Thornton was the tip of the spear, their downfield threat and option route target on the perimeter. R.J. Sneed was the chain-mover who’d move around for targets. Abram Smith defined the “RVO” (reliably violent offense) bringing hard cuts and a refusal to go down to their patented wide zone running game.

Thornton and Smith are going to be the guys who are particularly difficult to replace. The Bears have other backs but Smith was as physical a runner as you saw in the Big 12 a year ago. Thornton will be even tougher to replace, especially considering the two top options appear to be sophomore Hal Presley and freshman Armani Winfield. Might one of them be ready? It could happen, but good wide zone teams are notorious for making great backs from hard-working runners while deep threat receivers are space force specialists.

Defense is in similar shape. They are sustaining some serious losses, Terrel Bernard and Jalen Pitre are moving on after leading the team in tackles for loss (and 11 total sacks). The secondary hasn’t totally shaken out but figures to lose at least a couple of contributors such as Jairon McVea and Raleigh Texada.

The defense was built on two things though, the fantastic play-making of Bernard and Pitre in their blitz package and then a big, powerful D-line. The latter returns all their main pieces, along with Jack linebacker Matt Jones who was brilliant down the stretch after cementing himself at the position.

Aranda and his staff won’t be able to roll out the same formula but it’s possible they can find more running backs and keep the run game rolling, perhaps improving the passing game by moving to Shapen, and more linebackers to execute the blitz package.

Across the rest of the league:

  • Oklahoma is waiting on a decision from Caleb Williams which could very well determine if they are competitive for a B12 title in 2022.
  • TCU and Texas Tech are undergoing coaching changes.
  • Texas is retooling in a major way after going 5-7.
  • Oklahoma State is replacing star defensive coordinator Jim Knowles.
  • Iowa State is replacing Brock “pump fake” Purdy and several other key seniors.
  • West Virginia returns Dante Stills and moves on from Jarrett Doege.
  • K-State is bringing in Adrian Martinez.

The league is pretty open with a lot of uncertainty about the core makeup of several rosters entering winter conditioning programs. I wouldn’t make Baylor the favorites right now (no point in picking a favorite until the portal and coaching carousel stop whirring) but they’re certainly in the mix.

Baylor’s future in the Big 12

This is the interesting part.

Baylor over this last decade has shown a deep commitment to their basketball and football programs. They hired Art Briles and set him up to run the league briefly before having to dismiss him in disgrace. Before he was bought out for a pretty penny, they constructed McLane Stadium next to the campus and on the Brazos river.

He’s since been replaced by Matt Rhule and Dave Aranda, both on long-term, guaranteed, highly lucrative contracts. Over this same period they witnessed Scott Drew grow as a coach and build the Bear basketball program into a consistent national power and found the funding to build a new basketball arena as well. Fan support is not close where it is for a bigger state school, but CenTex is a growing population so there’s always the chance to add more “t-shirt” fans to the alumni fanbase if they can maintain their place as a winning program over time. They’ll also add more admissions and alumni.

Quick aside, you think it’s purely vanity leading these programs to invest in football? You need to sell modern students on campus life in an era of cheap, online education.

Obviously the program is about to take a hit when Texas and Oklahoma leave and take their money bags to the SEC. The league will lose some respect nationally in the rankings without the presence of two, perennially top 10 recruiting programs. However, they’ll then add several good teams with strong support and the playoff participant Cincinnati Bearcats.

The expanded playoff is essential to the future of the Big 12. The league needs access to those big money games for the money, prestige, and the ability to sell recruits on playing in a nationally relevant conference.

Assuming the non-SEC conferences cave and the expanded playoff is approved, Baylor is set up to have a chance at continuing to grow in the new Big 12.

TCU, Houston, and Texas Tech are all investing heavily in new staff and players to try and position themselves to be regular contenders in the new-look league. Baylor is already positioned for it. They’ve won it three times while Oklahoma was still around (albeit a bit down for two of those titles), have lived to shine a light on Texas’ failures, and have their identity established and set while their peers are scrambling to catch up.

Baylor’s identity in the Dave Aranda era is clear and essentially a continuation of where Matt Rhule was taking the program. They’re going to aim to be the biggest, best, and toughest team in the trenches on either side of the ball.

Rhule and his staff have now (mostly) finished two recruiting classes and brought in the following players along the lines. On offense…

They’ve loaded up on numbers overall. In 2021 they took a trio of smaller guys they were obviously going to grow into skilled big men with time and then the immediate starters Gall and Miller. The 2022 group is bigger both in terms of size and numbers.

There’s not obvious athleticism apparent in the rankings so the plan will hinge on Grimes and Jeff Mateos having evaluated promise and now molding them into great linemen with time, which seems a reasonable enough bet.

On defense…

The numbers and talent metrics here are a bit more concerning outside of Ika, who was a key piece to their title run this last season. For comparison’s sake, here’s how Aranda’s winning 2022 lines were measured and ranked:

Offensive line

  • Left tackle: Connor Galvin, 6-foot-7, 310 pounds, 88.63 rating
  • Left guard: Xavier Newman, 6-foot-2, 315 pounds, 90.90 rating
  • Center: Jacob Gall, 6-foot-2, 300 pounds, no rating
  • Right guard: Grant Miller, 6-foot-4, 309 pounds, 81.69 rating
  • Right tackle: Khalid Keith, 6-foot-5, 329 pounds, 83.57 rating

Defensive line

  • Defensive end: T.J. Franklin, 6-foot-4, 295 pounds, 83.43 rating
  • Nose tackle: Siaki Ika, 6-foot-3, 350 pounds, 92.53 rating
  • Defensive end: Gabe Hall, 6-foot-5, 305 pounds, 86.22 rating

They had a lot of size but nothing magical in terms of recruiting rankings. Their recruiting has dipped in the rankings since dismissing Art Briles, who had them 3rd annually behind Oklahoma and Texas, but they’re obviously evaluating well to find right guys and then coaching them up. So long as their coaching and personnel departments are staffed by top level workers, which has been the hallmark of their rise, it seems highly plausible they can maintain this identity and potentially dominate the new Big 12 if not at least contend within it.

It’s been a good decade-plus now for Baylor football and they keep maintaining their place while chipping away with the sorts of accomplishments they need to take further steps. A best-case scenario for them would be to rule a new-look Big 12 and make some appearances in an expanded playoff to keep the dream alive of finding enough growth to one day win a National Championship.

What does the future hold for Baylor? Discuss for free on the Flyover Football board!

You may also like

Arch Manning
Inside Texas

A Field With A Ball

RT Young•07/31/25

I wrote this article last summer, but with fall camp underway and college football just 30 days from kickoff, it felt fitting to run it back. A lot...