Where we are in the College Football Playoff race halfway through the season

This is going to be a long one, so we’re jumping right in.

As a reminder, here’s how the current CFP bracket works.

There are 12 teams. The five highest-ranked conference champions automatically receive a bid. From there, the next seven highest-ranked teams, based on the committee’s rankings, will be selected to compete for the remaining spots. There are no longer automatic byes for the four highest-ranked conference champions — instead, the top four overall ranked teams receive the byes. That means the Big Ten could have two teams on bye, and the Big 12 could have none.

Let’s get into the teams.

There are currently five of the 12 spots that are, for all intents and purposes, already occupied. It’s strange to say that in mid-October, but that’s the case.

The G5 will have one of the 12 spots guaranteed. We won’t go super in-depth on that, but the top two contenders, Memphis and USF, play next week. (Tulane and Navy are also interesting) There’s almost no chance two G5 schools make it.

I’d be very surprised if Ohio State or Indiana weren’t among the 12 teams in the playoff. Remember, in this exercise, we’re trying to find a team’s path to being the 11th seed — the bubble of the bracket.

In the SEC, that generally means finishing 9–3 or 10–2.
In the Big Ten, it’s 10–2.
In the ACC and Big 12, you probably need 11 wins to be safe.

Indiana and Ohio State are both 6–0. Ohio State’s only notable matchups left are hosting Penn State and visiting Michigan. They could lose both and still likely get in. Indiana faces Penn State and Maryland on the road, and I’d give better than a 95% chance these two teams make it.

Miami and Texas Tech are also almost certainly in. Compared to last year, the top of both the Big 12 and ACC are much stronger, and it shows. Miami is 6–0 and has already passed its two major tests. Texas Tech is 6–0 and has already hammered the No. 2 team in the Big 12, Utah. They get BYU later, but they’ll probably win that.

The most likely way either league gets two bids is if one of these teams loses its conference championship game but still finishes strong. Both should be good enough to withstand that kind of loss.

That leaves seven spots for the 38 Power 4 schools with two or fewer losses. Technically, South Carolina, Kentucky, or Auburn could win out and sneak in with three losses, but that’s not happening.

Let’s tier these 38.

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LOL

Penn State, Clemson, Florida, Florida State

Just reminding you that these teams are out of playoff contention.

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Not Gonna Happen

Northwestern, Minnesota, Cal, Wake Forest, Arizona, Baylor

Two-loss teams that just aren’t good enough to make a run, though technically they’re still in contention.

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Would Need Multiple Miracles

Mississippi State, Houston, TCU, Iowa State, Arizona State, Pitt, SMU

Pitt and SMU both have a path to the ACC Championship Game (they’re fifth and sixth in odds), but both already have two losses and still play Miami. Houston has just one loss — to Texas Tech — but it’s one of the least talented Big 12 rosters. TCU and Iowa State already have two conference losses, and Arizona State travels to Tech this weekend. Mississippi State is a fun story, but take a look at their remaining schedule. It’s not happening.

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Too Hard, Not Good Enough

Iowa, Louisville, Duke, Maryland

This is where it starts to get interesting. You could call this the unofficial top 25. From here, every team listed still has a realistic path, but the road gets very narrow. As you can see, there are no Big 12 teams in this tier — the conference hierarchy is pretty set right now.

In the ACC, Duke already has two losses, both out of conference. Their margin for error is razor-thin, and they’re probably not good enough to win two of three against Georgia Tech, Virginia, and Clemson. If they did, they’d have a shot. Louisville has just one loss, but it’s in conference, and they still have Miami, Clemson, SMU, and Kentucky ahead. They’d need to be perfect.

In the Big Ten, Iowa already has two losses but doesn’t play Indiana or Ohio State. They still host Oregon and visit USC, though, which makes the climb steep. Maryland’s a fun team with two losses, but they have Indiana after a bye, plus Michigan and Illinois. They’re actually pretty good — just in the wrong league at the wrong time.

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9–3 Hopefuls

Vanderbilt, Oklahoma

If any two teams can get in at 9–3, it’s these two.

Their schedules are simply too hard to reach their conference title games, but they’re talented enough to stay in the conversation. Oklahoma’s win over Michigan helps, but they’d still have to beat Ole Miss, Missouri, and LSU to make a serious case. They seem destined for 8–4.

Vanderbilt’s in the same boat. They still have to play Texas, and they’d need to knock off teams like LSU and Missouri to even hope for 9–3. This is basically the SEC version of the previous tier — good, but not good enough.

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Doable

Illinois, Michigan, Nebraska, Washington, Virginia, Cincinnati

The four Big Ten teams here — Illinois, Nebraska, and Washington — probably won’t sniff their conference championship game, but they’re all solid and have manageable schedules. Washington has one loss and hosts Oregon. Nebraska has one loss and hosts USC. Illinois has two losses but gets Washington after a bye, which could set them up for a 10–2 finish. Michigan has two losses, but if they beat Washington this week, they have a very real path to being 9-2 ahead of the Ohio State game, at home.These teams are probably favored to go 8–4, with an outside shot to hit 10 wins.

Virginia and Cincinnati are basically the same team in different leagues: one loss each, with one glaringly tough game left. Both could go 11–1, but at 10–2, they’re probably left out.

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Good Teams, Zero Margin for Error

Texas, Notre Dame

This is where the conversation gets personal.

It’s simple. If either of these two clearly strong teams loses, they’re out of contention. I’d have Texas as around the 16th most likely team to make the playoff. They may end up being favored in every game going forward, but they won’t get in at 9-3. Notre Dame definitely won’t, but if they beat USC on Saturday, they can easily make it.

The nice thing for both programs is that winning out gets you in, losing once kicks you out. They’re basically playing playoff games already without any math thrown into the equation.

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Very Possible

Georgia Tech, USC, Utah, BYU, Missouri, Tennessee, LSU

This is where it starts to get real. I’d say this group includes five of the seven weakest teams on paper among the top 17 playoff odds, but they all have clear paths to success.

Georgia Tech is undefeated and will likely be favored in every ACC game going forward — especially if they beat Duke on the road this weekend. Even with a loss to Georgia, a one-loss ACC Championship Game appearance probably gets them in. I just don’t think they can finish 5–1 down the stretch.

Utah and BYU are the two biggest threats to Tech in the Big 12. They meet in Provo on Saturday, and the winner will be in fantastic shape. BYU is undefeated but hasn’t played Tech yet, and both teams could realistically finish 11–1.

USC and Missouri are power-conference teams with straightforward paths. Split your two toughest games, win the rest, and you’re in. If USC beats Notre Dame this weekend, it just needs to handle the rest of the slate before facing Oregon near the end of the year.

Missouri’s schedule is remarkably easy. They have one loss — to Alabama — and just need to go 3–1 against Auburn, Vanderbilt, A&M, and Oklahoma to stay alive.

Tennessee might actually be too talented for this tier, but its schedule makes things complicated. They won’t get in at 9–3, and they visit Alabama this weekend. If they win, they’re all but in. If not, they’d have to run the table against Oklahoma, Florida, and Vanderbilt — not impossible, just tough.

LSU’s schedule is as brutal as it gets. They still have to play Alabama, Vanderbilt, Oklahoma, and A&M. They probably deserve their own tier just below this one.

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Har

In a Great Spot

Texas A&M, Georgia, Alabama, Oregon, Ole Miss

If I had to bet right now, I’d take all five of these teams to make the playoff.

A&M has already survived its toughest stretch and could probably get in at 9–3. Win one road game between LSU, Missouri, or Texas, and they’re set.

Ole Miss is undefeated with only two tough games remaining. They’re on track for an easy 10–2.

Alabama’s one loss isn’t in the SEC, and all three of their toughest remaining games are at home. Georgia still has to play Texas and Ole Miss, but even a split gets them in.

Oregon dodges Ohio State this year, but this is easily the friskiest of the group. They have one loss and still have to play @ Iowa and Washington as well as host USC. They should win 2/3, but there’s a world where they don’t.

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There you have it — 1,500 words of CFP talk and where Texas stands. I’d say they’re probably the 13th-most likely team to grab one of those final seven spots. Not bad, but not quite where fans expected them to be.

This weekend brings a huge slate of matchups that matter for Texas:

LSU plays at Vanderbilt. Texas fans should probably root for the Commodores — an LSU loss would all but eliminate them from contention.
Ole Miss travels to Georgia. It’s better for Texas if Georgia wins. You want your upcoming opponents knocking off other contenders, which also makes it harder for Ole Miss to reach the SEC title game.
Tennessee heads to Alabama. Probably best if Bama wins this one.
USC visits Notre Dame. This one doesn’t move the needle much for Texas.

A perfect weekend would see Texas’ schedule partners win the games that strengthen their own resumes — only for Texas to beat them later and build its own case.

The first CFP rankings release show will be on November 4 at around 7 p.m. Central Time on ESPN. That will be the first real look we’ll have at how the voters see the remaining teams.

Either way, it’s simple: Texas gets in at 10–2, and they’re out at 9–3. That’s the entire equation.