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Why Texas Deserves a Playoff Spot: Breaking Down the Metrics and Committee Drama

by: Justin Nash9 hours ago

The 2025 regular season is officially in the book with the conference championships settled. As we head into the postseason with resumes finalized, we are hours away from the playoff committee determining the fate for the Texas Longhorns. Let’s look at the resumes for the at-large teams looking to get into the playoffs.

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Looking at the committee’s own guidelines, the Longhorns should have a resume that speaks for itself and should in theory get Texas in with ease. However, as Steve Sarkisian and Texas fans have found out, the committee hasn’t seemed to use these guidelines when ranking teams.

This year they have changed the voting process, moving to a three round process, where teams 1-4 get voted on in round one, 5-8 in round two, and 9-12 in round three.

With the protocols and the process out of the way, here’s what the resumes look like:

Given that there are five auto-bids for the highest ranked conference champions, there are only seven at-large teams that will make it in. Let’s look at where Texas sits in each category among the at large teams, with the seven team cut line in mind.

SOS – 8th in the nation, 2nd among at-large teams
H2H CFP – two, tied most among at-large teams
ESPN FPI – 13th in the nation, 8th among at-large teams
SOR – 12th in the nation, 8th among at-large teams

The good news for Texas fans is ESPN’s Football Power Index is nowhere to be found in the committee’s voting protocols. The bad news like previously mentioned is the listed metrics in their protocols haven’t seemed to be a point of focus for the committee at all.

Among the at-large teams, it is widely considered there are two spots up for grabs going into selection Sunday. With five teams vying for those last two spots, the competition for the last spots will be at an all-time high. With the protocols list, it’s easy to understand why Sarkisian has felt overlooked.

Here’s how Texas compares to them:

Looking at each individual comparison using the committee guidelines, Texas looks to be in a good spot.

Texas has received quite a few endorsements as of late, but one stands above the rest. Kirby Smart took to the “stand” for Texas after the Bulldogs’ win over Alabama, seemingly upset that the strength of schedule hasn’t been weighed as it was advertised heading into 2025.

With the committee pointing to the the Florida loss last week, Smart also came to Texas’ aid. While this does help his team’s perception having been in a close game against Florida themselves, they have an auto-bid and first-round bye. Perception does nothing to his resume.

The most likely reason for the campaigning isn’t to lend Texas a hand. Smart sees the nine-game conference slates coming, paired with at least one non-conference Power 4 opponent. In the SEC where parity is at its highest, he knows another loss with the committee’s latest voting could very well keep Georgia out in 2026.

The Longhorns are likely on the outside despite having metrics that line up really well with the committee’s 2025 guidelines, though it doesn’t hurt to have the top coach in the SEC campaigning in favor of your team.

There is a lot on the line with how this committee decides to vote in the final rankings for 2025.

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