Musings from Arledge: Predictable and unpredictable struggles of Lincoln Riley and USC
It’s time for Lincoln Riley to fight for his career, which seems far less secure than it did a year ago.
I don’t mean that he needs to fight for his job. His job is safe, and it should be. Even if he tanked the next two years, USC’s financial obligations to Riley would probably make his job safe. USC isn’t Texas A&M; this program does not have the fan or financial support to consider dismissing a coach and paying him a $70 million exit package. That’s not on the table and shouldn’t be.
But Lincoln Riley came to USC widely regarded as one of the top young coaches in the country—an offensive genius who developed quarterbacks like nobody in history. He had so much success, so quickly, that it seemed impossible to believe that he could fail at USC.
It’s not as hard to believe now, is it?
Some of what has happened to Lincoln Riley this year has been predictable. Some of it has been completely unexpected. All of it cries out for more than just tinkering in the offseason. I think Riley thought he was on the right track to win titles already and that no major overhaul of the program would be necessary. If he’s still thinking that way now, he—and we—are in big trouble.
The fact that we’re already talking about the offseason only eight games into the schedule is amazing. Nobody expected that. But the truth is that this season is effectively over. The goals that USC had for itself, the expectations that the college football world had—expectations that Lincoln Riley helped to set; more on that later—are dashed. Yes, the Trojans could win out and win the conference. They could, but they won’t. They’re not good enough. USC is slightly more likely to lose out than win out at this point. USC is fighting for a second-tier bowl. Nobody expected USC to be in that situation after eight games, least of all Lincoln Riley. But that’s where they are, and it’s time to deal with that.
Let’s start with the predictable part of this mess. Lincoln Riley hired Alex Grinch at Oklahoma after Grinch had a single, underwhelming season at Ohio State. In three years at Oklahoma, Alex Grinch underwhelmed three straight times. But Riley brought him to Los Angeles anyway. And, in his first season at USC, Alex Grinch underwhelmed. But Lincoln Riley brought him back. And, once again, and please raise your hand if you’re surprised by this, Alex Grinch has underwhelmed. Alex Grinch has been a below-average defensive coordinator at three different college football blue bloods. When you run a defense at Ohio State, Oklahoma, or USC, the goal is not to field a top-40 defense—at least it shouldn’t be, although most USC fans were praying we could reach that level this year, thinking a top-40 defense might be enough. And USC won’t get close to that already sad goal.
That Lincoln Riley has stuck with Alex Grinch for five years despite a mountain of evidence that he cannot get the job done is a giant, red flag. Maybe many red flags. Maybe it’s more like that scene just before intermission in Les Mis when the whole cast is on stage and half of them are waving giant flags. Riley either put loyalty to Grinch ahead of loyalty to his employer, his program, and his players—which would be really bad—or he legitimately believes that Alex Grinch is an excellent defensive coordinator, five years of results be damned. And that may even be worse; I just don’t know.
Yesterday, facing a depleted Utah offense that has been pretty dreadful all year, led by a relatively inexperienced quarterback with marginal physical skills, Alex Grinch’s defense gave up almost 500 yards and 34 points. The crazy part is, in Alex Grinch world, those numbers don’t even sound that bad. Most weeks it’s worse.
But the numbers are bad. Utah was averaging about 21 points a game coming into this matchup. They couldn’t throw the ball effectively against anybody, and they were only 47th in the nation rushing, averaging less than four yards per carry. Oregon State held them to a single offensive touchdown. UCLA held them to a single offensive touchdown. Mediocre Baylor held them to two offensive touchdowns. USC gave up more yards and points to Utah than Weber State did. USC gave up the same number of points and more yards than Cal did.
USC should have been desperate. Riley and staff must have known that they would only have a chance of salvaging their season if they beat Utah. And if that wasn’t motivation enough, they were playing against a team that has been a longtime thorn in USC’s side and which just so happened to have embarrassed them last season and kept them out of the playoff. With all of that in play, the Trojans came out on the first series of the game and promptly gave up a three-play, 75-yard touchdown drive. It was an Alex Grinch classic: bad run defense followed by a spectacularly foolish pass-defense assignment that led to a long touchdown play.
I suspect one of the fun games played by opposing coaching staffs is “Find the Ridiculous Assignment.” This is where opposing offensive coordinators identify the player that Alex Grinch has tasked with a near-impossible assignment so they can target that kid and score easily. Bonus points if that player is trotted out in front of the media after the game to take the blame for the bad play.
I’m excited about Braylan Shelby. He will develop into a spectacular edge rusher before his career at USC is over. I am not as enamored by Braylan Shelby as a man coverage specialist. Could be wrong. I don’t get to watch practices. Maybe Alex Grinch has seen Shelby’s lock-down cover skills in practice and decided to unleash them on the world. But I will note that I have been complaining since last year about Grinch’s habit of putting his defenders in bad positions, such as putting a safety on a slot receiver in man coverage with no deep help and only four pass rushers. He does it all the time; it leads to touchdowns all the time. But his decision on multiple occasions last night to have a freshman edge rusher manned up against a Utah running back really takes the cake. Did anybody think that would work?
That’s not a rhetorical question. I want you to answer it. And don’t answer too quickly. Say it out loud. Let it marinate. Let the words hang in the air for a bit. Should we have our true freshman pass rusher covering the other team’s halfback in man coverage? I say no. What do you say?
Let’s try another one. The other team has two tight ends in the game. Should we keep our nickel personnel on the field and rely on a little defensive back, who is five yards off the ball and whose primary responsibility is pass coverage, to be the contain guy on outside running plays? Again, I say no. Alex Grinch says yes. Predictably, teams gash USC on the edge with the run over and over and over again.
Don’t get me wrong; I couldn’t be a college defensive coordinator. I don’t have the knowledge or the experience. I’m just a guy who used to play a little and now watches games.
I’m also not a structural engineer. But if I saw somebody trying to build a freeway overpass using nothing but particle board and duct tape, I could probably identify that some engineering errors are in play. You don’t have to know a ton to recognize some problems; some problems should be obvious to the world.
And while I’ve probably already ranted too much, I can’t leave this subject without talking about the key play of the game, the quarterback scramble to set up the winning field goal. That play wasn’t made by Michael Vick, or RG3, or Vince Young, or Caleb Williams, or even Cameron Rising. It was made by …. Barnes, right? For much of the game I couldn’t remember the kid’s name. Because he’s just a guy, an available body. He’s a scout team player. That USC lost a must-win game by giving up a 26-yard scramble to that guy? I deal in words professionally, but I don’t have the words for that.
Alex Grinch has failed at USC this season. That was not unexpected. We all hoped it wouldn’t happen, but we all knew it could. That he was allowed to do so is completely on Lincoln Riley, who was guilty of coaching malpractice of the highest order in not making an obvious personnel change to fix a glaring weakness. The great coaches recognize problems before they destroy a season or threaten a program, and they ruthlessly deal with them. Lincoln Riley won’t be a great coach unless and until he is able and willing to do that.
Grinch’s failure was, sadly, predictable. But let’s talk about what is surprising: USC’s offense is a liability. Nobody expected that. Not Lincoln Riley. Not Caleb Williams. Not USC fans. Not the college football media. Not USC’s opponents.
USC’s offense has been a mess for over a month. After scoring 14 points on their first two drives against Utah, USC had eight straight possessions without a touchdown. And when the USC offense finally scored a touchdown, it was because the freshman phenom ran a punt back to the 11 yard line. I never thought I’d say this, but right now, Lincoln Riley’s offense—an offense with the most-talented college quarterback I’ve ever seen, a returning Heisman Trophy winner—might be worse than Alex Grinch’s defense. If you say you expected that, you’re a liar. I would have bet any amount of money that this offense would be excellent. That Lincoln Riley has a sputtering offense for this long with Caleb Williams and well-above-average talent around him is stunning. Lincoln Riley can replace Alex Grinch. He probably will. But the mess that is Lincoln Riley’s offense is, in some ways, more concerning, because there is no obvious solution.
Should USC be running the ball more? Probably. Its starting halfback averages about eight yards a carry on the season. That’s pretty good, no? I think, based on a quick perusal of the media guide, that it would be the second-best yards-per-carry average in USC history. Yet here’s how many carries MarShawn Lloyd is averaging per game: 10. Last night, after running the ball five times (and very well) on its first two drives, USC gave its running backs, who averaged about 10 yards per carry on the night, only seven more carries for the rest of the game. Tailback U, huh?
Riley was supposed to be different. He was the disciple of Air Raid coaches who understood the need for a power running game, the one who had some excellent running offenses at OU. Now it appears he isn’t even willing to try.
And for some reason, the most-talented college quarterback I have ever seen, coached by college football’s renowned quarterback whisperer, regresses every week. He still plays well. He still does something amazing every game. But there’s something wrong. And I’m worried that Williams is demonstrating for NFL teams that he has a weakness that, if not corrected, will destroy him in the NFL: he struggles to play within the offense and get the ball out on time. In the NFL, that’s the name of the game. Yes, Pat Mahomes and Steve Young and Aaron Rodgers and a bunch of other quarterbacks used their feet to create time and make big plays. But those plays were the exception, not the norm. Most of the time, an NFL quarterback reads the defense quickly, gets the ball out on time, throws to the right guy, and fits the ball into tight spaces. It’s the primary job requirement. Williams has the talent to do that. But he hasn’t been doing it. I don’t know why. I wonder if Lincoln Riley does.
Let’s end the Utah discussion with this: what is USC’s identity under Lincoln Riley? Let’s turn it over to Kyle Whittingham for a second, as painful as that may be:
“But they have a Heisman Trophy winner at quarterback, so they’re gonna make some things happen and that’s just the way it is. But we have ourselves a pig farmer at quarterback, and we’re proud of that guy. We love him and what a warrior he is. We saw that grit that he has on the last drive, a couple of QB runs and found a way to win. That’s what this team is…. Bottom line is, we found a way to win. Like I said, that’s a heck of a football team we just beat tonight. Tons of athletes, athletes everywhere, speed everywhere, and we did it with toughness and grit, which again, is our MO.”
That hurts, doesn’t it? I can’t stand Whittingham’s verbal jabs and his bullying. But that guy is one heck of a football coach, and he has the right to say what he wants, especially because he’s right. I’m tired of watching USC have athletes and speed and flash and get whipped by guys with less talent who play with toughness, and discipline, and grit.
Is there anything worse in football than being the finesse team that can’t take a punch? Since Pete Carroll, USC has hired as permanent head coaches four straight former quarterbacks. Not a single one of them has figured out how to make USC the bullies on the block. And for the program of Pete Carroll, John McKay, Junior Seau, Ronnie Lott, Tony Boselli, Troy Polamalu, Marcus Allen, Bruce Matthews, Rey Maualuga, Sedrick Ellis, Anthony Munoz, Scott Ross, Mark Carrier, Kevin Bruce, Charles White, Richard Wood, Sam Bam Cunningham, Ricky Bell, Gary Jeter, Jack Del Rio, and many, many others to lose to less-talented “pig farmers” because four different coaches over a decade a half couldn’t figure out how to tap into USC’s history of being physical bullies who would punch their opponents in the mouth, well that’s just sad.
I’m not giving up on Lincoln Riley. I think he was the right hire. I think he’s smart and ambitious and capable of learning and growing. And former quarterbacks can build tough football teams. Johnathon Smith and Jim Harbaugh are doing that right now. But, Lincoln, I have to be honest with you. The quarterback whisperer thing is great. Scoring a lot of points is nice. But if you can’t figure out a way to mold your team into a group that will physically dominate the opponent—the way Pete Carroll, John McKay, and John Robinson could, the way Nick Saban can, the way USC’s former nemesis Lou Holtz could—then you’ll only ever be a slick offensive coordinator who is not yet a real head coach, much less an elite one.
So where does USC go from here? It tries to play spoiler against Washington and Oregon. (I shudder to think about that upcoming matchup in Autzen.) It tries to beat UCLA. It probably secures a second-tier bowl. The players won’t care. Neither will the fans.
And speaking of the fans not caring, last week I criticized and challenged USC fans to show up to a must-win game. We didn’t. USC announced 61,000 or so “tickets distributed” or whatever nonsense euphemism they’re using these days. Please don’t misunderstand; attendance of 61,000 would have been bad enough. But there’s no way there were more than 40,000 there last night. The Los Angeles Memorial Haden Architectural Abomination Coliseum holds 77,500. At least half the seats were empty. Entire, large sections were completely empty, especially on the Peristyle end and at the top of the closed end. And, of course, the rattle-your-jewelry section was about half full, as always. USC has a lot of people that pay a lot of money for the right to buy seats they virtually never occupy and apparently can’t or won’t give to fans who would show up.
That’s their right. And, hey, maybe everybody is just unhappy with the program and not sold on USC’s trajectory. I get it; nobody owes USC their time or money, especially after a decade-plus of nonsense and a team that appears to be poorly coached and regressing.
But if USC fans want the program to compete with the big boys, it needs far better support. USC doesn’t have the resources to compete with Oregon, Texas, Miami, and others in the NIL department, even if it wanted to. And what major program would have 40,000 largely docile fans show up for a must-win, revenge game with a 5:00 pm kickoff? Miami, maybe? And that’s about it. USC fans may just get the program they deserve.
And for all of Lincoln Riley’s mistakes and need to change, I wonder if deep inside, he isn’t a little bit surprised and disappointed that USC alums just don’t care about the football program? And I wonder if the NFL talk doesn’t have a little bit of merit to it. That doesn’t mean he’s leaving. How would I know? But he made a massive career move expecting to duplicate what Pete Carroll did. Now he’s losing games, getting whacked in recruiting, and seeing that he will not get the fan support he got at Oklahoma or which every other major program in the country gets. I wonder if he’s as disappointed and skeptical of us as many USC fans currently are of him. It’s hard to blame him if he is.
But there is one thing I expect from Lincoln Riley no matter how tough this season is and how disappointed he is in USC’s fan and alumni support. I expect him to quit whining. It’s not a good look—not for anybody, and especially not for someone who is making eight figures a year to lead a program that he knew from the beginning expected to win and win quickly—a program that he himself said he expected to win quickly. That’s right: don’t complain that people outside this program set unreasonable expectations for USC this year. Don’t pretend that we should have been expecting a team that is now fighting for the Holiday Bowl.
You, sir, helped set the expectations. You made clear that championships are always the standard at USC, that you expected to win right away, that last year’s team was the least-talented team you’d have, and that you don’t shy away from huge expectations. You didn’t say this was a five-year rebuild. You didn’t say that you can’t compete with an Utah team led by a pig farmer quarterback who would never even have a scholarship at USC. Don’t move the goal post now. Don’t gaslight us now. You helped set the expectations, and you were right to do so. Because this team had a lot of promise and has dramatically underperformed.
You’re getting paid sums that would have been unimaginable to John McKay or Bear Bryant to win, and it is your job to right the ship. Best of luck; we badly want you to succeed. You have time. One down year won’t be your legacy. But Kyle Whittingham just outcoached you—again—and you need to worry more about that, and your two-point conversion strategies and play calls, and your team’s lack of toughness and discipline, and all kinds of other things of real import. You don’t have the time or standing to complain that people unfairly expected you to be good. Just go be good.
