2026 NFL Draft No. 1 pick odds

Halldan

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Jan 1, 2003
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2026 NFL Draft No. 1 pick odds​

PickTeamRecordStrength of scheduleFPI Odds for No. 1 pickOdds for top-five picksProjected pick
1Giants2-12.53610.655.8No. 4
2Raiders2-12.54837. 489.1No. 1
3Titans2-12.57624.187.2No. 2
4Browns3-11.48514.178.6No. 3
5Jets3-11.5365.758.2No. 5
6Cardinals3-11.571x44.7No. 6
7Saints4-10.492x37.4No. 7
8Commanders4-10.506x44.7No. 8
9Bengals4-10.523x2.3No. 10
 

Halldan

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Jan 1, 2003
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New York Giants schedule​

Week 16: vs. Vikings (6-8)
Week 17: at Raiders (2-12)
Week 18: vs. Cowboys (6-7-1)

The Giants are home underdogs to the Vikings in Week 16, and the road game in Week 17 against Las Vegas will play a huge role in which team has the upper hand to grab the No. 1 pick

Las Vegas Raiders schedule​

Week 16: at Texans (9-5)
Week 17: vs. Giants (2-12)
Week 18: vs. Chiefs (6-8)

Las Vegas is a huge underdog in Week 16 before hosting the Giants, and that Week 18 game suddenly has interesting draft implications with Patrick Mahomes’ season over and the Chiefs eliminated.

Cleveland Browns schedule​

Week 16: vs. Bills (10-4)
Week 17: vs. Steelers (8-6)
Week 18: at Bengals (4-10)

The Browns figure to be underdogs in all three of these games, although neither Ohio team will have much to play for in Week 18.

Tennessee Titans schedule​

Week 16: vs. Chiefs (6-8)
Week 17: vs. Saints (4-10)
Week 18: at Jaguars (10-4)

The Titans are small underdogs against Gardner Minshew and the Chiefs in Week 16, and then face another potential team picking in the top 10 in the Saints, which will have draft ramifications.

New York Jets schedule​

Week 16: at Saints (4-10)
Week 17: vs. Patriots (11-3)
Week 18: at Bills (10-4)

The Jets will be underdogs in all these games, especially since Weeks 17 and 18 figure to have playoff implications for the Patriots and Bills.

Arizona Cardinals schedule​

Week 16: vs. Falcons (5-9)
Week 17: at Bengals (4-10)
Week 18: at Rams (11-3)

The Cardinals have two winnable games against the Falcons and Bengals on tap, but they’ve lost 11 of 12 and six straight. They’re already thinking about the 2026 team.

New Orleans Saints schedule​

Week 16: vs. Jets (3-11)
Week 17: at Titans (2-12)
Week 18: at Falcons (5-9)

The Saints are suddenly hot under rookie quarterback Tyler Shough, and they have three winnable games to close out the season that could potentially move them out of the top 10.

Washington Commanders schedule​

Week 16: vs. Eagles (9-5)
Week 17: vs. Cowboys (6-7-1)
Week 18: at Eagles (9-5)

Cincinnati Bengals schedule​

Week 16: at Dolphins (6-8)
Week 17: vs. Cardinals (3-11)
Week 18: vs. Browns (3-11)

The Bengals could not save their season with Joe Burrow under center, and it’s fair to wonder just how motivated this team will be over the next three weeks.
 

Fishjam

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Raiders vs Giants in Week 17 will likely decide the 1st pick.

Jets always win just enough meaningless games to NEVER get the 1st pick.

What would people think of NFL going to a Lottery system?