A few weeks ago after UF debacle

Perd Hapley

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Sep 30, 2022
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I posted that we only had a 25% chance of finishing 4-8, based on ESPN analytics and future matchup predictors.

Some thought it was faulty, but here we are now and its 0% chance.

So what do the same predictive models say now? Here are the % chances of each possible final record:

5-7: 43.6% chance
6-6: 41.8% chance
7-5: 13.2% chance
8-4: 1.4% chance

Overall, chances of finishing 6-6 or better currently sit at 56.4%.
 
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paindonthurt

All-Conference
Apr 7, 2025
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I posted that we only had a 25% chance of finishing 4-8, based on ESPN analytics and future matchup predictors.

Some thought it was faulty, but here we are now and its 0% chance.

So what do the same predictive models say now? Here are the % chances of each possible final record:

5-7: 43.6% chance
6-6: 41.8% chance
7-5: 13.2% chance
8-4: 1.4% chance

Overall, chances of finishing 6-6 or better currently sit at 56.4%.
Don’t get us acting emotional in the opposite direction!
 

UpTheMiddlex3Punt

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May 28, 2007
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Jim Carrey Chance GIF
 

She Mate Me

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Dec 7, 2008
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I posted that we only had a 25% chance of finishing 4-8, based on ESPN analytics and future matchup predictors.

Some thought it was faulty, but here we are now and its 0% chance.

So what do the same predictive models say now? Here are the % chances of each possible final record:

5-7: 43.6% chance
6-6: 41.8% chance
7-5: 13.2% chance
8-4: 1.4% chance

Overall, chances of finishing 6-6 or better currently sit at 56.4%.

I posted some similar analytics from Massey when we were 4-0. I think at the time the odds we would not win another game (even though we would clearly be underdogs in them all) was under 10%.

The odds we would win 6 or more were about 67% then if I recall correctly.
 

Perd Hapley

All-American
Sep 30, 2022
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5,754
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Who gives a shlt about a bowl anyway? I'd rather us turn it down and spend our time crootin for next year. We're going to need it with all we are losing.
I don’t really care about the actual bowl as much as I do about simply being bowl eligible, if that makes sense. I haven’t cared about actual bowl games in years, actually.

But I think from 2-10 to 6-6 is a really solid step forward, and that’s not up for debate. I think this is true even though the SEC in general is a lot weaker than folks thought it was preseason.
 
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HRMSU

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Apr 26, 2022
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Who gives a shlt about a bowl anyway? I'd rather us turn it down and spend our time crootin for next year. We're going to need it with all we are losing.
Come to Mississippi State where we dont need no stinkin bowl games; CFP or bust baby****