A few weeks ago after UF debacle

[Perd Hapley]

I posted that we only had a 25% chance of finishing 4-8, based on ESPN analytics and future matchup predictors.

Some thought it was faulty, but here we are now and its 0% chance.

So what do the same predictive models say now? Here are the % chances of each possible final record:

5-7: 43.6% chance
6-6: 41.8% chance
7-5: 13.2% chance
8-4: 1.4% chance

Overall, chances of finishing 6-6 or better currently sit at 56.4%.

 

[paindonthurt]

I posted that we only had a 25% chance of finishing 4-8, based on ESPN analytics and future matchup predictors.

Some thought it was faulty, but here we are now and its 0% chance.

So what do the same predictive models say now? Here are the % chances of each possible final record:

5-7: 43.6% chance
6-6: 41.8% chance
7-5: 13.2% chance
8-4: 1.4% chance

Overall, chances of finishing 6-6 or better currently sit at 56.4%.

Don’t get us acting emotional in the opposite direction!

 

[TaleofTwoDogs]

SPS acting emotional, BAH, we are the model of rationality. *

 

[UpTheMiddlex3Punt]

 

[She Mate Me]

I posted that we only had a 25% chance of finishing 4-8, based on ESPN analytics and future matchup predictors.

Some thought it was faulty, but here we are now and its 0% chance.

So what do the same predictive models say now? Here are the % chances of each possible final record:

5-7: 43.6% chance
6-6: 41.8% chance
7-5: 13.2% chance
8-4: 1.4% chance

Overall, chances of finishing 6-6 or better currently sit at 56.4%.

I posted some similar analytics from Massey when we were 4-0. I think at the time the odds we would not win another game (even though we would clearly be underdogs in them all) was under 10%.

The odds we would win 6 or more were about 67% then if I recall correctly.

 

[OG Goat Holder]

Who gives a shlt about a bowl anyway? I'd rather us turn it down and spend our time crootin for next year. We're going to need it with all we are losing.

 

[basedawg]

Who gives a shlt about a bowl anyway? I'd rather us turn it down and spend our time crootin for next year. We're going to need it with all we are losing.

Most of the current players care. As far as recruiting, isn't there a dead period, plus it goes on after the bowl game.

 

[Shmuley]

Make a damn bowl game then let’s see what the MFer can do in recruiting. Only way to go on recruiting is up.

 

[OG Goat Holder]

Most of the current players care. As far as recruiting, isn't there a dead period, plus it goes on after the bowl game.

LOL

 

[CochiseCowbell]

 

[Perd Hapley]

Who gives a shlt about a bowl anyway? I'd rather us turn it down and spend our time crootin for next year. We're going to need it with all we are losing.

I don’t really care about the actual bowl as much as I do about simply being bowl eligible, if that makes sense. I haven’t cared about actual bowl games in years, actually.

But I think from 2-10 to 6-6 is a really solid step forward, and that’s not up for debate. I think this is true even though the SEC in general is a lot weaker than folks thought it was preseason.

 

[TXDawg.sixpack]

Who gives a shlt about a bowl anyway? I'd rather us turn it down and spend our time crootin for next year. We're going to need it with all we are losing.

Dubmass gonna dubmass

 

[aTotal360]

Who gives a shlt about a bowl anyway? I'd rather us turn it down and spend our time crootin for next year. We're going to need it with all we are losing.

Keeping kids on campus for as long as possible is paramount for retention. I want us to play 2 bowl games.

 

[HRMSU]

Who gives a shlt about a bowl anyway? I'd rather us turn it down and spend our time crootin for next year. We're going to need it with all we are losing.

Come to Mississippi State where we dont need no stinkin bowl games; CFP or bust baby****

 

[FrontRangeDawg]

I think we have a reasonable shot at two more wins. Mizzou and UM are there. UM is better, but not by much. And Kiffin is due for his no-show.

 

[Perd Hapley]

I think we have a reasonable shot at two more wins. Mizzou and UM are there. UM is better, but not by much. And Kiffin is due for his no-show.

I do think that the Egg Bowl will be quite interesting if OM rolls in with 10 wins already, but still no shot of playing in the SEC Championship. And as of right now, that seems like the most likely scenario since they don’t play Bama or A&M, and already have lost the tiebreaker to UGA.

They’ll essentially have nothing to gain and everything to lose just from playing the game. A week 18 NFL scenario. Would they rest or at least limit the snaps for key players? It’s quite possible.

 

[patdog]

I do think that the Egg Bowl will be quite interesting if OM rolls in with 10 wins already, but still no shot of playing in the SEC Championship. And as of right now, that seems like the most likely scenario since they don’t play Bama or A&M, and already have lost the tiebreaker to UGA.

They’ll essentially have nothing to gain and everything to lose just from playing the game. A week 18 NFL scenario. Would they rest or at least limit the snaps for key players? It’s quite possible.

A loss to us in that situation could easily knock them right out of the playoff, and put us in a bowl game. Which would be one of the sweetest Egg Bowl wins every. But they will have everything to play for.

 

[RopeDawg]

I don’t really care about the actual bowl as much as I do about simply being bowl eligible, if that makes sense. I haven’t cared about actual bowl games in years, actually.

But I think from 2-10 to 6-6 is a really solid step forward, and that’s not up for debate. I think this is true even though the SEC in general is a lot weaker than folks thought it was preseason.

I think the top of the SEC is weaker than previous 2 decades but it’s never been as deep. We don’t have any Purdue’s, Michigan State’s, Boston Colleges, OK State’s etc.

 

[patdog]

I think the top of the SEC is weaker than previous 2 decades but it’s never been as deep. We don’t have any Purdue’s, Michigan State’s, Boston Colleges, OK State’s etc.

Bottom of SEC is pretty weak. 5 teams with 4 wins combined and 2 of those are over winless Arkansas. Kentucky, Arkansas, Auburn and South Carolina are pretty awful. And of course we only play 1 of them.

 

[RopeDawg]

Bottom of SEC is pretty weak. 5 teams with 4 wins combined and 2 of those are over winless Arkansas. Kentucky, Arkansas, Auburn and South Carolina are pretty awful. And of course we only play 1 of them.

Yeah but the talent on the bottom of the SEC teams is much better than bottom of the others. I guarantee you more $ and resources are poured into bottom SEC teams

 

[Villagedawg]

After the Tennessee game I thought there was absolutely no way we were not going to sneak up and beat someone we had absolutely no business beating. After the Florida and Texas games, and even the Arkansas game I am thinking we missed our chance on the big upset. I'm not saying we have no shot in these next three, but I am afraid that ship has sailed.

 

[Perd Hapley]

A loss to us in that situation could easily knock them right out of the playoff, and put us in a bowl game. Which would be one of the sweetest Egg Bowl wins every. But they will have everything to play for.

A 10 win OM will not be left out of the playoff. No way, no how. They will only be left out if they somehow lose to both UF and MSU. If they beat UF next weekend after already destroying the Citadel, they will know their future with relative certainty heading into the Egg Bowl.

And not only that, but they are very close to complete assurance of a first round home game with 10 wins as well.

There’s just not many teams out there that can leapfrog over a 10 win SEC team, either to make the CFP in general or to get a higher seed in the playoff. 10-2 ND is not going to have any marquee wins, and that’s the best they can do. I think Oregon could leapfrog them at 11-1, but I think they lose at least one more…..and a 10-2 Oregon isn’t going to have any major wins. The ACC champ and G5 team are assured of being in that 9-12 zone, and Big 12 champ might land there also. The top two in the Big 12 (BYU and Texas Tech) play each other this weekend, so one of them is about to drop. You’d have to have 4 teams in that grouping leapfrog a 10-win OM just to keep OM from getting a first round home game, and 4 more to keep them from making the field. I don’t see either happening.

When CFP detractors started talking about the reduced importance of the regular season, this is exactly what they were talking about. Same type of thing as Ohio State last year.

 

[patdog]

A 10 win OM will not be left out of the playoff. No way, no how. They will only be left out if they somehow lose to both UF and MSU. If they beat UF next weekend after already destroying the Citadel, they will know their future with relative certainty heading into the Egg Bowl.

And not only that, but they are very close to complete assurance of a first round home game with 10 wins as well.

There’s just not many teams out there that can leapfrog over a 10 win SEC team, either to make the CFP in general or to get a higher seed in the playoff. 10-2 ND is not going to have any marquee wins, and that’s the best they can do. I think Oregon could leapfrog them at 11-1, but I think they lose at least one more…..and a 10-2 Oregon isn’t going to have any major wins. The ACC champ and G5 team are assured of being in that 9-12 zone, and Big 12 champ might land there also. The top two in the Big 12 (BYU and Texas Tech) play each other this weekend, so one of them is about to drop. You’d have to have 4 teams in that grouping leapfrog a 10-win OM just to keep OM from getting a first round home game, and 4 more to keep them from making the field. I don’t see either happening.

When CFP detractors started talking about the reduced importance of the regular season, this is exactly what they were talking about. Same type of thing as Ohio State last year.

Max 4 SEC teams will get a bid. They’re #6 right now. Only need to fall to 10 to get left out. A loss to a 6-win team & no real quality wins would be damaging.

to clarify , not saying the can’t make it at 10-2. But it wouldn’t a guaranteed, and it would be a road game for sure.

 

[Perd Hapley]

Max 4 SEC teams will get a bid. They’re #6 right now. Only need to fall to 10 to get left out. A loss to a 6-win team & no real quality wins would be damaging.

to clarify , not saying the can’t make it at 10-2. But it wouldn’t a guaranteed, and it would be a road game for sure.

They have a quality win over OU on the road. That’s about as good of a win as anybody has except for Bama’s road win over UGA. OU is currently in CFP Top 12, which in and of itself shows how weak the field is this year, because neither them or Texas is anything special.

And 5 SEC teams getting a bid is possible, but not likely. Either way, OM’s not very likely at all to be the 5th SEC team. Currently they are solidly ahead of OU and Texas, and solidly behind A&M, Bama, and UGA. There’s not much of a path to either of those things changing, unless Texas wins in Athens AND beats A&M at home, AND Ole Miss drops either the UF or MSU game (really unlikely for all that to occur). The greater possibility is that they move up to 3rd, if Bama stumbles against OU and/or Auburn and then loses the SEC Championship game to A&M, and OM doesn’t lose both the MSU and UF games.

And again, there’s just not a lot of possible 10-2 or better teams you can put ahead of 10-2 Ole miss in the 5-8 slots, either. Lets pretend BYU goes 13-0 and Oregon goes 11-1 (both of which are probably 50/50 chance, at best). That’s 2 teams. Let’s say ND wins out and the committee tries to pretend their win over USC is better than OM’s win over Oklahoma. That’s 3. Who’s the 4th? It would potentially be whichever of Bama, A&M, and UGA doesn’t finish in the Top 4. But all 3 of those teams have at least one difficult game left, with the SECCG participants having another. Bama potentially slips lower than a 10-2 OM with any new regular season loss….that FSU game still a huge albatross for them. If UGA stumbles against Texas and Ga Tech, that’s problematic for them.

Bottom line - a lot has to happen a very specific way for 10-2 OM just to get an away CFP game. There is no chance at all they get left out entirely at 10-2. Zero.

 

[patdog]

They have a quality win over OU on the road. That’s about as good of a win as anybody has except for Bama’s road win over UGA. OU is currently in CFP Top 12, which in and of itself shows how weak the field is this year, because neither them or Texas is anything special.

And 5 SEC teams getting a bid is possible, but not likely. Either way, OM’s not very likely at all to be the 5th SEC team. Currently they are solidly ahead of OU and Texas, and solidly behind A&M, Bama, and UGA. There’s not much of a path to either of those things changing, unless Texas wins in Athens AND beats A&M at home, AND Ole Miss drops either the UF or MSU game (really unlikely for all that to occur). The greater possibility is that they move up to 3rd, if Bama stumbles against OU and/or Auburn and then loses the SEC Championship game to A&M, and OM doesn’t lose both the MSU and UF games.

And again, there’s just not a lot of possible 10-2 or better teams you can put ahead of 10-2 Ole miss in the 5-8 slots, either. Lets pretend BYU goes 13-0 and Oregon goes 11-1 (both of which are probably 50/50 chance, at best). That’s 2 teams. Let’s say ND wins out and the committee tries to pretend their win over USC is better than OM’s win over Oklahoma. That’s 3. Who’s the 4th? It would potentially be whichever of Bama, A&M, and UGA doesn’t finish in the Top 4. But all 3 of those teams have at least one difficult game left, with the SECCG participants having another. Bama potentially slips lower than a 10-2 OM with any new regular season loss….that FSU game still a huge albatross for them. If UGA stumbles against Texas and Ga Tech, that’s problematic for them.

Bottom line - a lot has to happen a very specific way for 10-2 OM just to get an away CFP game. There is no chance at all they get left out entirely at 10-2. Zero.

I doubt OU is a top 20 win at season end. And the committee will probably give 2 bids to the Big 12 the way it looks right now. Of course they don't deserve it, but neither did SMU last year. We'll see. Again, not saying they won't get a bid at 10-2. Very good chance they will. But they could get left out. Even without that, playing for a home game vs a road game is a pretty big deal for them anyway. Any hope they might treat the Egg Bowl like NFL teams treat week 18 is a fantasy.

 

[campshelbydog1116]

Who gives a shlt about a bowl anyway? I'd rather us turn it down and spend our time crootin for next year. We're going to need it with all we are losing.

Having players not go home for the holidays and stay with the team and the coaches gives them less time to go be around people at home telling them to transfer. That's why bowl games are good for teams.

 

[Perd Hapley]

I doubt OU is a top 20 win at season end.

What’s going to make them not a Top 20 win? They’re 7-2. They’d pretty much need to lose out to not finish in the Top 20. They’ve got some good wins over Tennessee and Michigan, and no bad losses.

And the committee will probably give 2 bids to the Big 12 the way it looks right now.

Why does it look that way right now? BYU is undefeated and only #7. Committee is not giving the Big 12 much love. And even if so, why does either of the two get the nod over a 10-win OM in the pecking order? Need TT to beat BYU, then BYU / TT would both need to win out after this weekend for them to both finish ahead of a 10-win OM.

Of course they don't deserve it, but neither did SMU last year. We'll see.

I mean, SMU kind of deserved it….11 regular season wins, and next best SEC was 9-3. Bama doesn’t have that WTF game against Oklahoma, and they are in.

Again, not saying they won't get a bid at 10-2. Very good chance they will. But they could get left out.

They won’t.

Even without that, playing for a home game vs a road game is a pretty big deal for them anyway.

They may not have that concern either. You need to look closely at who all plays each other down the stretch. Example - BYU vs. TT, Bama vs. OU, UGA vs. Texas, Texas vs. A&M, Ga Tech vs. UGA, Oregon vs. Iowa, etc. The conference championship games. There’s a lot of cannibalization that OM gets to steer clear of.

Any hope they might treat the Egg Bowl like NFL teams treat week 18 is a fantasy.

I’m not saying it will be exactly like that. But you can’t say it won’t be a factor in how the game is managed if they already have the bid sewn up and already have a likely home game in the 1st round.

Any guys with moderate injuries (which is a lot of folks at that point in the season) aren’t going to be pushed too hard. Less QB running plays, less deep shots that leave QB exposed for longer, etc. It can and will come into play somehow.