As I see it week 16

[Halldan]

1 St John's 22-5 15-1
Cruising through a mediocre conference

1 UConn 25-3 15-2
Needed last night badly

3 Villanova 21-6 12-4
Greatly overperformed in a very weak Big East

4 Seton Hall 19-9 9-8
Why does last night feel like an L

5 Creighton 14-14 8-9
This team beat UConn? On the road no less

6 Butler 15-13 6-11
Two Ws in a row in the Big East gives you a major bump

7 DePaul 14-13 6-10
If they could only play the Hall in conference

8 Providence 12-15 5-11
Way too talented to be here

9 Georgetown 13-14 5-11
Cooley's seat getting hot

10 Xavier 13-14 5-11
Well, there's always next season

11 Marquette 9-18 4-12
Did anyone have a clue re Marquette

 

[joeyklings]

Same list except
8. Georgetown
9. Providence

 

[Halldan]

In truth after Creighton you can take your pick with the exception of Marquette.

 

[SPK145]

1) St. John’s
2) UCONN

3) Villanova

The rest are too terrible to even think about, a colossal waste of somebody’s money.

 

[BrklynGrad]

With Xavier at #10 I wish I felt better about our game there.

 

[ivyhillpark63]

1) St. John’s
2) UCONN

3) Villanova

The rest are too terrible to even think about, a colossal waste of somebody’s money.

19 wins and hall is terrible?
Giving up 47 points to a big east team is almost as impossible to do as going 0-18 from 3 .

 

[Halldan]

1) St. John’s
2) UCONN

3) Villanova

The rest are too terrible to even think about, a colossal waste of somebody’s money.

Steve, it's never a waste of time to discuss the conference. Even in a down year.

You spend a ton of time doing your index. Why not share a little of that re this weekly post?

 

[SPK145]

19 wins and hall is terrible?
Giving up 47 points to a big east team is almost as impossible to do as going 0-18 from 3 .

19 wins with the 295th ranked OOC schedule, LOL? The way Seton Hall has played the last several weeks, yes they’ve been terrible.

 

[jack 1970]

I think we're going to have to beat both the Pitinos and Hurleys to get into the NCAAs

 

[Halldan]

And Xavier as well.

Of course can't see it happening. But at least we're still in consideration in late Feb.

 

[dehere23]

I think we're going to have to beat both the Pitinos and Hurleys to get into the NCAAs

We have to win our next 3 for sure. And then maybe a game in the Big East to feel safe.

People still haven't come around to the notion that winning 20+ games and having a winning record in the league isn't enough. Not in this version of the Big East. The smarter coaches are already ahead of this and tried to proactively address it by playing a strong OOC. Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but even Nova wasn't ranked going into last nights game, despite having 20 wins already and being 12-3 in the league. When in the past would that have been the case?

 

[dehere23]

1 St John's 22-5 15-1
Cruising through a mediocre conference

1 UConn 25-3 15-2
Needed last night badly

3 Villanova 21-6 12-4
Greatly overperformed in a very weak Big East

4 Seton Hall 19-9 9-8
Why does last night feel like an L

5 Creighton 14-14 8-9
This team beat UConn? On the road no less

6 Butler 15-13 6-11
Two Ws in a row in the Big East gives you a major bump

7 DePaul 14-13 6-10
If they could only play the Hall in conference

8 Providence 12-15 5-11
Way too talented to be here

9 Georgetown 13-14 5-11
Cooley's seat getting hot

10 Xavier 13-14 5-11
Well, there's always next season

11 Marquette 9-18 4-12
Did anyone have a clue re Marquette

1 Uconn
(smaller gap now)
2 SJU
(bigger gap)

3. Nova.

4. Everyone else

 

[Halldan]

That's the easy part. I would rather read about the hard part.

 

[NCAAsorBust]

We have to win our next 3 for sure. And then maybe a game in the Big East to feel safe.

People still haven't come around to the notion that winning 20+ games and having a winning record in the league isn't enough. Not in this version of the Big East. The smarter coaches are already ahead of this and tried to proactively address it by playing a strong OOC. Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but even Nova wasn't ranked going into last nights game, despite having 20 wins already and being 12-3 in the league. When in the past would that have been the case?

To be fair, I don't think anyone at Seton Hall or around the conference saw the conference being so bad. If anyone thought Seton Hall had a legit shot at more conference wins this season than we had overall wins last year, I think we might have scheduled different. Because of that I think the whole goal of the OOC schedule was to get as close to double digit wins so we didn't have back to back single digit wins. I don't care what anyone says, I think Seton Hall was preparing for the worst of itself and instead got the worst that the big east could possibly be.

 

[dehere23]

That's the easy part. I would rather read about the hard part.

OK, your wish is my command.

4. Creighton (barely, because they beat us more recently and the UCONN win at Storrs)

5. Hall (Sha did a solid job with this group. He went with actual game experience above all else in the portal - per the recent Carino podcast with Felt -- eschewing the young talents with pedigrees that don't have the requisite experience (Scotty, Dual, etc). No problem with that strategy, but now maybe get one or two more offensive minded kids with experience in lieu of a more defense-first profile).

6. Butler (Thad still cannot get over the hump)

7. Depaul (incremental improvements, but we will see if Holty can make another leap)

8. Xavier (little Rick has an eye for offensive talent IMO, like landing both Toppin and Dent at New Mexico. Now he needs to round things out going forward)

9. Georgetown (when Cooley and Pitino were hired 3 years ago, if I asked this board where Gtown and SJU would be sitting here today, no one would have predicted the type of disparity we have seen in the two programs)

10. English (worst coaching job in the Big East)

11. Marquette (if Shaka can keep this group together, I think they will be much, much better than this year. But he needs to go to the portal to replace Ross and maybe Gold too).

 

[dehere23]

To be fair, I don't think anyone at Seton Hall or around the conference saw the conference being so bad. If anyone thought Seton Hall had a legit shot at more conference wins this season than we had overall wins last year, I think we might have scheduled different. Because of that I think the whole goal of the OOC schedule was to get as close to double digit wins so we didn't have back to back single digit wins. I don't care what anyone says, I think Seton Hall was preparing for the worst of itself and instead got the worst that the big east could possibly be.

Agree on the schedule. I think it was absolutely done to get as many wins as possible, regardless of the competition. After last year, that was the goal. Also, we were locked into Maui, and so you kind of live and die with what the rest of the field turns out to be (which wasn't great). Some teams -- Creighton did this I believe -- are willing to pay a "break up fee" to get into a more challenging preseason tournament, but we aren't going to do that.

 

[PQR]

BE is the 5th ranked conference by NET. Sure, it’s top heavy, but outside of the elite conferences, that’s typically the case.

 

[Hall84]

Going in, Kansas St on the road looked to be a really tough game that all of us predicted us to lose. Won handily.
Rutgers ended up being way worse than expected.
We solidly beat a good NC St. team handily.
Got screwed against another tourney team USC.
We win that USC game and we get a better win on the resume over ASU instead of WSU.
As mentioned we were locked into Maui which normally has higher ranked teams.

Not a great OOC schedule but not as bad as most put out there.

 

[Halldan]

Kenpom

1	Southeastern Conference	+19.46
2	Big 12 Conference	+17.93
3	Big Ten Conference	+17.89
4	Atlantic Coast Conference	+15.18
5	Big East Conference	+13.34
6	Mountain West Conference	+9.50

 

[Piratz]

19 wins and hall is terrible?
Giving up 47 points to a big east team is almost as impossible to do as going 0-18 from 3 .

It could be worse. We could be Kansas State. Or Georgetown. With what they spent, yikes.

When you watch this team, does it look like an NCAAT team? To me it doesn't because we are WOEFUL on on side of the court, amongst the worst in the country. We have to grind out games against bad BE teams that we do win, not to mention the few we've lost. With the defense we play we should be more like 12-5 in this league with a marquee win or two f we were good enough on that end. The offense held us back in so many games that we lost. It's never gotten better.

But hey look, we're still in striking distance with a NET of 53 and 6-7 Q1-2 record if we can run the table and pick up these critical 2 Q1 wins. We have no chance without those, even only 1 is probably not enough. I'd even take the 2 big wins and a loss at Xavier if that was the deal. So at least there's a chance. Maybe we find our shots magically.

 

[halltheway]

Who would have thought that we have the slightest possibility
considering the NCAA Tournament in the last few days of February.
I'm happy...

 

[Hall84]

I wonder if we were #9 Kenpom offense and #187 defense people would feel the same way with 19 wins?

 

[dehere23]

Going in, Kansas St on the road looked to be a really tough game that all of us predicted us to lose. Won handily.
Rutgers ended up being way worse than expected.
We solidly beat a good NC St. team handily.
Got screwed against another tourney team USC.
We win that USC game and we get a better win on the resume over ASU instead of WSU.
As mentioned we were locked into Maui which normally has higher ranked teams.

Not a great OOC schedule but not as bad as most put out there.

Kansas State was picked 9th or 10th preseason in that league. USC was picked I think 12th preseason in the Big 10. Arizona State was picked last preseason in the Big 12. WSU isn't any good and wasn't projected to be either. Rutgers was picked to be 17th, or next to last, in the Big 10.

Teams get overrated or underrated all the time preseason, every year, but I think most programs have a pretty good sense on who is going to be a legit or potentially legit team, and who is not. Even if they don't ultimately play to that level.

I think we can do much, much better scheduling-wise in the OOC. I posted all of the above around the time of Maui, and was met with snarky responses and message board nonsense. It wasn't because I wanted to throw cold water on a promising start to the season; of course I was happy the team was winning games. It was to project what those wins and games might mean, or not mean, in the context of the Big East regular season schedule. Even in a historically bad year in the Big East -- the weakest the league has been in my lifetime IMO -- it's played out.

Sha should set up a much more challenging OOC next year. The losses to legit competition do not really harm you, and help you learn where you need to adjust or get better. How rotations work or should work with all the new pieces. Things like that. And if the concern is that a bad OOC record is going to stifle attendance -- well isn't this year evidence that a strong start to the season, or even the Big East schedule, isn't going to move attendance much in a positive direction anyway?

 

[dehere23]

I wonder if we were #9 Kenpom offense and #187 defense people would feel the same way with 19 wins?

Probably not, because it is more visually appealing to watch. But it's absolutely a good point. A win is a win, regardless of how you get it.

 

[radecicco]

This is who we are. Defense first, we win on the margins— forcing TOs, blocks, steals, offensive rebounding — all create extra possessions on offense. When we do those things we can pull out wins.

We have an at best mid level Rev share/NIL budget. We can all name the six or seven schools with more $$$ to spend. Combine that with Sha’s old school style and this is what we get.

We have 19 wins, will most likely get a bye into the quarter finals of the BET. Still playing meaningful games into late February. Nobody saw this coming even if it’s unlikely we get to the NCAAT.

Personally I just enjoy the wins and just completely walk away from the losses, don’t dwell on them at all. Why get frustrated? The team plays hard for Holloway. They are offensively challenged. We all know that.

And we all know what we have to do next year to get better. Increase the budget and retain at minimum Clark and Hines.

 

[ivyhillpark63]

It could be worse. We could be Kansas State. Or Georgetown. With what they spent, yikes.

When you watch this team, does it look like an NCAAT team? To me it doesn't because we are WOEFUL on on side of the court, amongst the worst in the country. We have to grind out games against bad BE teams that we do win, not to mention the few we've lost. With the defense we play we should be more like 12-5 in this league with a marquee win or two f we were good enough on that end. The offense held us back in so many games that we lost. It's never gotten better.

But hey look, we're still in striking distance with a NET of 53 and 6-7 Q1-2 record if we can run the table and pick up these critical 2 Q1 wins. We have no chance without those, even only 1 is probably not enough. I'd even take the 2 big wins and a loss at Xavier if that was the deal. So at least there's a chance. Maybe we find our shots magically.

Good points
If only

It could be worse. We could be Kansas State. Or Georgetown. With what they spent, yikes.

When you watch this team, does it look like an NCAAT team? To me it doesn't because we are WOEFUL on on side of the court, amongst the worst in the country. We have to grind out games against bad BE teams that we do win, not to mention the few we've lost. With the defense we play we should be more like 12-5 in this league with a marquee win or two f we were good enough on that end. The offense held us back in so many games that we lost. It's never gotten better.

But hey look, we're still in striking distance with a NET of 53 and 6-7 Q1-2 record if we can run the table and pick up these critical 2 Q1 wins. We have no chance without those, even only 1 is probably not enough. I'd even take the 2 big wins and a loss at Xavier if that was the deal. So at least there's a chance. Maybe we find our shots magically.

Good points now if only we won that st johns and creighton game

 

[dehere23]

This is who we are. Defense first, we win on the margins— forcing TOs, blocks, steals, offensive rebounding — all create extra possessions on offense. When we do those things we can pull out wins.

We have an at best mid level Rev share/NIL budget. We can all name the six or seven schools with more $$$ to spend. Combine that with Sha’s old school style and this is what we get.

We have 19 wins, will most likely get a bye into the quarter finals of the BET. Still playing meaningful games into late February. Nobody saw this coming even if it’s unlikely we get to the NCAAT.

Personally I just enjoy the wins and just completely walk away from the losses, don’t dwell on them at all. Why get frustrated? The team plays hard for Holloway. They are offensively challenged. We all know that.

And we all know what we have to do next year to get better. Increase the budget and retain at minimum Clark and Hines.

We need to make sure the resources are there to be competitive.

But it doesn’t stop there.

Our HC needs to grown as a coach and as a program leader/manager. Our entire structure needs to improve.

I’m happy with the season for all the reasons you stated. But if anyone is looking at this solely based on NIL I think you are grossly missing the point. So many programs are strong resource-wise but don’t succeed because they lack the other stuff.

 

[dehere23]

Good points
If only

Good points now if only we won that st johns and creighton game

Yes, but we can’t play that game because there are like 6-7 that easily go the other way in any other year.

 

[CTF591011]

I mean trying to be optimistic and realistic, just at least obviously beat Xavier.

team doesn’t look promising to even with one of either UConn or St. John’s, but we both played them well out first matchup.

To give credit Sha he has attempted to make changes in the lineup and give credit in playing Hines more over Payne ( hypocritically was hating on Hines last night).
Even then, the bigs have been inconsistent and not been good on rebounding.

If team was to even just beat one if UConn or St. John’s. They have to crash the boards.

I honestly feel we beat St. John’s weeks ago if we literally boxed out like most decent to good teams do.

I think it’s likely we have to make semifinals in big east tournament to even get considered.

It’s a tough task but hope this team can not ruin it badly.

Even if we only beat Xavier, this team can make the semis of BE tourney.

I just worry if we match with DePaul or Creighton lol, but we should honestly beat these teams man.

 

[CTF591011]

I mean trying to be optimistic and realistic, just at least obviously beat Xavier.

team doesn’t look promising to even with one of either UConn or St. John’s, but we both played them well out first matchup.

To give credit Sha he has attempted to make changes in the lineup and give credit in playing Hines more over Payne ( hypocritically was hating on Hines last night).
Even then, the bigs have been inconsistent and not been good on rebounding.

If team was to even just beat one if UConn or St. John’s. They have to crash the boards.

I honestly feel we beat St. John’s weeks ago if we literally boxed out like most decent to good teams do.

I think it’s likely we have to make semifinals in big east tournament to even get considered.

It’s a tough task but hope this team can not ruin it badly.

Even if we only beat Xavier, this team can make the semis of BE tourney.

I just worry if we match with DePaul or Creighton lol, but we should honestly beat these teams man

It could be worse. We could be Kansas State. Or Georgetown. With what they spent, yikes.

When you watch this team, does it look like an NCAAT team? To me it doesn't because we are WOEFUL on on side of the court, amongst the worst in the country. We have to grind out games against bad BE teams that we do win, not to mention the few we've lost. With the defense we play we should be more like 12-5 in this league with a marquee win or two f we were good enough on that end. The offense held us back in so many games that we lost. It's never gotten better.

But hey look, we're still in striking distance with a NET of 53 and 6-7 Q1-2 record if we can run the table and pick up these critical 2 Q1 wins. We have no chance without those, even only 1 is probably not enough. I'd even take the 2 big wins and a loss at Xavier if that was the deal. So at least there's a chance. Maybe we find our shots magically.

I mean regardless if team doesn’t get one win or even any wins against UConn and St. John’s, they have to be ready for the big east tournament.

Obviously would rather get a split against UConn and St John’s, but team has to approach every game like a must win.

I do think this team can at least get really close to the big east final whic would be a tough semifinals be tourney loss.

Still this team can easily lose in the quarters to a trash team but you just have to gove yourselves the best shot as possible.

 

[Piratz]

We need to make sure the resources are there to be competitive.

But it doesn’t stop there.

Our HC needs to grown as a coach and as a program leader/manager. Our entire structure needs to improve.

I’m happy with the season for all the reasons you stated. But if anyone is looking at this solely based on NIL I think you are grossly missing the point. So many programs are strong resource-wise but don’t succeed because they lack the other stuff.

This.

We've had a nice bounce back season in the context of last year and the program's struggles in the pay-for-play era. But we clearly have more room to go to get back to being an NCAA Tournament team. Our program will now likely go a full 5 years - at least - between berths barring a miracle finish out of nowhere.

Let's also play Friday night at MSG. A doubleheader of Seton Hall-Connecticut, St. John's-Villanova would be exciting for us after not having won a BET game since Kevin Willard was our coach.

 

[radecicco]

We need to make sure the resources are there to be competitive.

But it doesn’t stop there.

Our HC needs to grown as a coach and as a program leader/manager. Our entire structure needs to improve.

I’m happy with the season for all the reasons you stated. But if anyone is looking at this solely based on NIL I think you are grossly missing the point. So many programs are strong resource-wise but don’t succeed because they lack the other stuff.

Agree it’s not just $$$, that’s why I referenced Sha’s old school style. Just saying that for this year, SHU outperformed several schools with a lot more resurces.

 

[SPK145]

Steve, it's never a waste of time to discuss the conference. Even in a down year.

You spend a ton of time doing your index. Why not share a little of that re this weekly post?

Here's what the SPK Index is at:

9 = Connecticut
13 = St. John's (NY)
27 = Villanova
52 = Seton Hall
79 = Butler
85 = Creighton
98 = Providence
101 = Xavier
108 = DePaul
111 = Georgetown
156 = Marquette

 

[PROF Ed]

So, ,we are not part of everyone else after UCONN, SJU and THE NOVA . All is relative To be in 4th place in the 5th best conference in the country and 52 out of 360 or so D 1 teams is pretty ok with me. I have enjoyed this season immensely. These kids play hard and never quit, imagine if they could shoot just a little.

 

[SPK145]

So, ,we are not part of everyone else after UCONN, SJU and THE NOVA .

Not according to the eye test the last few weeks.

 

[PROF Ed]

Whose eye test?

 

[SPK145]

Whose eye test?

Anyone that’s being honest.

 

[joeyklings]

This.

We've had a nice bounce back season in the context of last year and the program's struggles in the pay-for-play era. But we clearly have more room to go to get back to being an NCAA Tournament team. Our program will now likely go a full 5 years - at least - between berths barring a miracle finish out of nowhere.

Let's also play Friday night at MSG. A doubleheader of Seton Hall-Connecticut, St. John's-Villanova would be exciting for us after not having won a BET game since Kevin Willard was our coach.

It would be Seton Hall - St John’s and UConn-Nova. St John’s has a big lead for 1st place

 

[Halldan]

No one should base the season results by just a specific period of time.

Early on the Pirates were playing like a top 25 team. Lately more like a top 80 team.

Bottom line they are a top 50 team right now and that's all that should matter.

 

[lloyde dobler]

Kansas State was picked 9th or 10th preseason in that league. USC was picked I think 12th preseason in the Big 10. Arizona State was picked last preseason in the Big 12. WSU isn't any good and wasn't projected to be either. Rutgers was picked to be 17th, or next to last, in the Big 10.

Teams get overrated or underrated all the time preseason, every year, but I think most programs have a pretty good sense on who is going to be a legit or potentially legit team, and who is not. Even if they don't ultimately play to that level.

I think we can do much, much better scheduling-wise in the OOC. I posted all of the above around the time of Maui, and was met with snarky responses and message board nonsense. It wasn't because I wanted to throw cold water on a promising start to the season; of course I was happy the team was winning games. It was to project what those wins and games might mean, or not mean, in the context of the Big East regular season schedule. Even in a historically bad year in the Big East -- the weakest the league has been in my lifetime IMO -- it's played out.

Sha should set up a much more challenging OOC next year. The losses to legit competition do not really harm you, and help you learn where you need to adjust or get better. How rotations work or should work with all the new pieces. Things like that. And if the concern is that a bad OOC record is going to stifle attendance -- well isn't this year evidence that a strong start to the season, or even the Big East schedule, isn't going to move attendance much in a positive direction anyway?

They mostly played the teams they usually play in the OCC …. it wasn’t radically different from any year in the past …. But those teams are struggling, too.