As I see it week 4

[Halldan]

This is not a projection but play to date

1 Conn 6-1
With Mullins now back might separate the team from SJU

2 St John's 4-3
Credit for scheduling tough, but you have to win at least some of them to be considered elite

3 Butler 6-1
2 point loss to #41 SMU on the road shy of a perfect record

4 Villanova 5-1
Tissue thin schedule to date except for the one game (loss) against BYU that was already set up before Willard was hired

5 Creighton 4-3
3 losses (2 blowouts) against the 3 quality teams on the schedule

6 Seton Hall 7-1
A couple of very bad whistles from being 8-0. Probably should be ahead of Creighton. But for now I'll settle the Pirates here

7. Georgetown 5-2
Much higher until this holiday weekend

8 Providence 4-4
4 quality opponents. 4 losses. The hot seat is smoldering

9. Xavier 5-3
Edges Marquette, but not by much

10 Marquette 4-4
Have been brutal to date

11 DePaul 5-3
Did you just lose to LSU on a neutral court by 33 points?

 

[HallGuy2323]

This is the worst I can remember the Big East being. Could end up being a 2 bid league. That’s not good

 

[hallwins]

This is the worst I can remember the Big East being. Could end up being a 2 bid league. That’s not good

Not a great year for the Conference, but Dan's top 7 all have a chance for a bid. We probably end up with 4. The name teams are performing poorly and that is further hurting perceptions. It is actually good for the league to have Nova, Butler, Seton Hall and Georgetown ( before this MTE ), to be getting some publicity for exceeding expectations.

 

[SPK145]

Tier 1
1) UCONN
2) St. John's

Tier 2 (all surprises for me so far)
3) Villanova
4) Butler
5) Seton Hall - Opportunity seized

Tier 3
6) Creighton
7) Georgetown
8) Marquette
9) Xavier

Tier 4
10) Providence - Decent schedule but giving up 86.1 points per game
11) DePaul

 

[SPK145]

This is the worst I can remember the Big East being.

The Big East is 12-22 against P4 teams.

 

[Halldan]

Football money rules

1	Southeastern Conference	+19.66
2	Big 12 Conference	+17.71
3	Big Ten Conference	+17.67
4	Atlantic Coast Conference	+14.76
5	Big East Conference	+14.18

 

[PirateBlue08]

Reposting from another thread.

I see it as 2, 3, 6. This is my guess at this point in the season. Too early for me to separate the last 6.

Top 2:
Uconn - look like they can make another deep run
St. John's - can win a few tournament games if they fix a few things

Next 3:
Butler - looks solid against P5 schools
Georgetown - beaten two pretty good P5 schools but recent losses
Seton Hall - if we can keep playing like Maui

Bottom 6:
Marquette - Nothing special esp without Jones, Gold hasn't progressed. They'll go as far as Ross can take them.
Creighton - underachieving, Freeman unimpressive, big step back from Kalk etc, been bushwhacked against better comp
Xavier - Feisty at times if shooting well
Villanova - showed well in loss against BYU but haven't played anyone else. Will elevate after they actually beat someone.
DePaul - Signs of life, two good players in Gunn and Benson
Providence - Not good

 

[radecicco]

This is the worst I can remember the Big East being. Could end up being a 2 bid league. That’s not good

I predicted three bids unless the expected brand names did something in Nov & Dec. So far a mixed bag at best.

 

[HallGuy2323]

The Big East is 12-22 against P4 teams.

That’s a disaster. 4 teams in the tourney at this point would be good. OOC schedules are coming to a close. Not much time left to make an impression other than beating up on each other and that doesn’t look like it will mean much.

 

[Bud Boomer]

Title Contenders
UConn

NCAA Teams
St. John’s

Bubble Teams
Hall
Butler
Nova
Creighton

Not Good
Georgetown
Marquette
Providence
Xavier

Depaul-Level
DePaul

 

[radecicco]

Something called TRank has Butler and SHU as the highest rated over performers so far this season as reported by Paint Touches.

 

[Seton75]

Something called TRank has Butler and SHU as the highest rated over performers so far this season as reported by Paint Touches.

TRank sounds brilliant

 

[Fishjam]

Something called TRank has Butler and SHU as the highest rated over performers so far this season as reported by Paint Touches.

TRank is the rating used by Bart Torvik. Would have to see the context but likely means we are the 2 teams who have out performed our preseason ratings.

 

[Fishjam]

The Big East is 12-22 against P4 teams.

This is really going to hurt the Conference's ratings all year. I believe the first NET Rankings come out tomorrow, I don't expect them to be pretty.

On the bright side, despite it being super early you can see a path for Seton Hall to compete for a bid now. Close out the OOC with 3 wins and finish above .500 in conference doesn't seem impossible.

 

[HallGuy2323]

This is really going to hurt the Conference's ratings all year. I believe the first NET Rankings come out tomorrow, I don't expect them to be pretty.

On the bright side, despite it being super early you can see a path for Seton Hall to compete for a bid now. Close out the OOC with 3 wins and finish above .500 in conference doesn't seem impossible.

Agree on both points. But I can also see a Big East team winning 11 or 12 conference games like we did two years ago and being left out again. Are we mad if that’s us again? Or pleased with the season?

Whoever has their hopes on a bid better beat UConn and St Johns to be safe..

 

[radecicco]

TRank is the rating used by Bart Torvik. Would have to see the context but likely means we are the 2 teams who have out performed our preseason ratings.

Exactly.

 

[TheHall87]

Agree on both points. But I can also see a Big East team winning 11 or 12 conference games like we did two years ago and being left out again. Are we mad if that’s us again? Or pleased with the season?

Whoever has their hopes on a bid better beat UConn and St Johns to be safe..

If we go 10-1 in the OOC (with wins over NC State and Kansas State away from home) plus go 12-8 in the Big East, I think we would be in. It would be helpful to be playing Friday in the BET as well. Our non-conference performance would be immeasurably better than it was two years ago.

For one thing, even in a down Big East, there doesn't look to be anybody so bad that a win would look like beating St. Peter's or Wagner. Two years ago, we had Georgetown (NET 205) and DePaul (320). Having three Q4 Big East wins was a killer.

I do agree there could well be an 11 or 12 win BE team left out on Selection Sunday.

 

[Seton75]

If we go 10-1 in the OOC (with wins over NC State and Kansas State away from home) plus go 12-8 in the Big East, I think we would be in. It would be helpful to be playing Friday in the BET as well. Our non-conference performance would be immeasurably better than it was two years ago.

For one thing, even in a down Big East, there doesn't look to be anybody so bad that a win would look like beating St. Peter's or Wagner. Two years ago, we had Georgetown (NET 205) and DePaul (320). Having three Q4 Big East wins was a killer.

I do agree there could well be an 11 or 12 win BEows team left out on Selection Sunday.

yup. ooc killed us then. who knows. but if we finish the ooc strong and play well in the BE, that is a better resume.

 

[Halldan]

Preseason I posted that I thought the doom and gloom threads were way over the top. But now we are going in the other direction.

If we focus on just the NCAAs we might be settinging ourselves up for disappointment and the board will again be difficult to read.

Let's focus on the last three games in our OOC schedule, and then we'll talk about the Big East.

2-1 seems reasonable. 1-2 would be a very bad result. And heavens, how great would 3-0 be?

 

[radecicco]

Yeah let’s not get too far over the skis. Right now I’m looking at the RU game as key to the OOC. Get to 9-2 and there will be plenty of juice for the BE games.

 

[SPK145]

Yeah let’s not get too far over the skis. Right now I’m looking at the RU game as key to the OOC. Get to 9-2 and there will be plenty of juice for the BE games.

Beating a bad Rutgers team doesn't do anything to create juice. Now beating Kansas State at Kansas State, that's a different story.

 

[Hall84]

Agree that beating RU doesn't give us juice, it's just that losing to them deflates the good mojo that we have now built up.
Now, winning all 3 remaining OOC including beating Kansas St at their place and we can start dreaming a little!

 

[TheHall87]

Preseason I posted that I thought the doom and gloom threads were way over the top. But now we are going in the other direction.

If we focus on just the NCAAs we might be settinging ourselves up for disappointment and the board will again be difficult to read.

Let's focus on the last three games in our OOC schedule, and then we'll talk about the Big East.

2-1 seems reasonable. 1-2 would be a very bad result. And heavens, how great would 3-0 be?

It's far too early to focus on the NCAAs but it's never too early to focus on building a resume.

Our first five games were about compiling (relatively meaningless) wins. The final six OOC games are about setting ourselves up for the future. By going 2-1 in Maui, we've put ourselves in a solid spot.

Two home wins is the bare minimum for this last stretch. With the unveiling of the NET rankings, we now know that CCSU is a Q3 and RU is a Q4 game for now, though I expect they'll eventually flip-flop. Simply put, we can't lose either of those games.

It'd be nice to win at KSU but that's a tall task. It would likely be a Q1 win if we pull it off.

 

[Halldan]

Our first five games were about compiling (relatively meaningless) wins.

IMO I would like to correct this one sentence.

It was not compiling meaningless wins. It was about working on

1. The confidence of the team and players.

2. To show the fan base there was some hope.

3. To allow all the transfers and Hines to work together to build chemistry.

4. To allow the staff to see what will work and not work as the schedule ratchets up.

All of that I feel was the reason for our performance in Maui.

 

[Seton75]

i hope ncaa talk sounds possible all season long. and i think it will. not making it would disappoint. not being in the conversation would be far worse.

making the ncaas is the whole point of it all. 2 yrs ago stung. the blaney and most bg years were brutal.

 

[NYC Pirate]

Preseason I posted that I thought the doom and gloom threads were way over the top. But now we are going in the other direction.

If we focus on just the NCAAs we might be settinging ourselves up for disappointment and the board will again be difficult to read.

Let's focus on the last three games in our OOC schedule, and then we'll talk about the Big East.

2-1 seems reasonable. 1-2 would be a very bad result. And heavens, how great would 3-0 be?

I'd say Seton Hall is their own entity right now. UConn is very good. SJU has to play better. They have the marquee coach and have high expectations at this point. Seton Hall passed the eye test in Maui, but have not had a true road game yet. .SHU will swim or sink on their own merit.

 

[Fishjam]

Preseason I posted that I thought the doom and gloom threads were way over the top. But now we are going in the other direction.

If we focus on just the NCAAs we might be settinging ourselves up for disappointment and the board will again be difficult to read.

Let's focus on the last three games in our OOC schedule, and then we'll talk about the Big East.

2-1 seems reasonable. 1-2 would be a very bad result. And heavens, how great would 3-0 be?

I don't think there's any harm in pointing out that events in the early season have changed viewpoints and they now present a feasible path to the Bubble.

Factors that include:

1 - A strong Feast Week showing with a Q1 win and a close Q1 loss

2 - The terrible showing of the 2nd tier of BE teams raising our ceiling in BE play

3 - Kansas State not looking as strong as we thought lining up a difficult, but by no means impossible Q1 opportunity

4 - The Eye Test. Now that we've seen them against High Majors, this team has the look of a fighter. Still have some talent gaps but they are taking on some of the good qualities of their HC showing togetherness, intensity and unselfishness. Opposite of last season, this team is showing to be better than the sum of its parts.

All that said, its still extremely early and we haven't accomplished anything yet besides setting ourselves up to have a decent OOC. This team can't let up and must have a continuous improvement mindset and take every opponent seriously, one game at a time.

 

[radecicco]

Beating a bad Rutgers team doesn't do anything to create juice. Now beating Kansas State at Kansas State, that's a different story.

The point is you can’t lose to them. Of course beating K State moves the needle.

 

[TheHall87]

IMO I would like to correct this one sentence.

It was not compiling meaningless wins. It was about working on

1. The confidence of the team and players.

2. To show the fan base there was some hope.

3. To allow all the transfers and Hines to work together to build chemistry.

4. To allow the staff to see what will work and not work as the schedule ratchets up.

All of that I feel was the reason for our performance in Maui.

I agree with all of this. This is the "relatively" part.

"Meaningless" is within the context of our resume. The value of those five Q4 wins is that they are not losses. Any of them being losses would leave a huge hole in our resume that might not be able to be plugged.

 

[Fishjam]

I agree with all of this. This is the "relatively" part.

"Meaningless" is within the context of our resume. The value of those five Q4 wins is that they are not losses. Any of them being losses would leave a huge hole in our resume that might not be able to be plugged.

Correct regarding resume, but also have to consider that it definitely matters how you play against bad teams. The Wagner and Monmouth Wins were not impressive and not kind for our metrics. The blowouts of St.Peters, Fairfield and New Haven all by 20+ points improved our metrics.

I remember when they came out with NET, they said that wins by more than 10 points would be capped in how they weigh the metrics. While it may be true for how they measure margin of victory, there is no such cap on all other metrics which take into account your play on a per possession basis. Every single possession against every single opponent goes into making up your metrics and you can see the effect after every game, especially early in the season.

 

[Hall1974]

6 votes in AP poll for the Hall. Who would have thought?

 

[Seton75]

I don't think there's any harm in pointing out that events in the early season have changed viewpoints and they now present a feasible path to the Bubble.

Factors that include:

1 - A strong Feast Week showing with a Q1 win and a close Q1 loss

2 - The terrible showing of the 2nd tier of BE teams raising our ceiling in BE play

3 - Kansas State not looking as strong as we thought lining up a difficult, but by no means impossible Q1 opportunity

4 - The Eye Test. Now that we've seen them against High Majors, this team has the look of a fighter. Still have some talent gaps but they are taking on some of the good qualities of their HC showing togetherness, intensity and unselfishness. Opposite of last season, this team is showing to be better than the sum of its parts.

All that said, its still extremely early and we haven't accomplished anything yet besides setting ourselves up to have a decent OOC. This team can't let up and must have a continuous improvement mindset and take every opponent seriously, one game at a time.

YES. NCAA IS NOT A CRAZY DREAM NOW, which is a totally unexpected thing to be true. Enjoy iit. Hope we keep it up. if we dont, oh well. but i think we are for real.

 

[Seton75]

6 votes in AP poll for the Hall. Who would have thought?

!!!!!

 

[Seton75]

Watching nova- Temple. Nova not impressing me.

 

[Halldan]

13:09 - 2nd
2

• 
  Temple
  (4-3 0-0 Away)
  
  42
• 
  Villanova
  (5-1 4-0 Home)
  
  46

 

[mbraue]

Watching nova- Temple. Nova not impressing me.

The best early Christmas present would be sending home Willard and Nova with coal in their stocking - a nice spanking at the Pru.

 

[Seton75]

they came back and won easy. but i think we can handle them

 

[SPK145]

Villanova is better than I expected but I can see Seton Hall's defense bottling them up.

Preseason I was fearful of how many BE teams would sweep the Pirates, it was more than a few. Now I don't see very many BE teams that should sweep the Pirates.

 

[TheHall87]

6 votes in AP poll for the Hall. Who would have thought?

To be clear, six points, two votes.

Unless you think Purdue received nearly 1,500 votes -- which would likely be the largest case of voter fraud in history considering there are only 61 voters.

Brice Cherry had us at No. 22 and Dave Borges at No. 24

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