I dont know how anyone can think Rutgers has any chance of beating Michigan. This team has become awful. NCAA bid gone, season over.
BACATOLOGY: 3/3 NCAA TOURNAMENT ANALYSIS UPDATE****RUTGERS PROJECTED 10 SEED****
- Thread starter bac2therac
- Start date
I want us in as much as anyone. But If the committee watched on TV today, no way they could think we look the part.
Board ready but team not so sure.
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Wisconsin didn't get any favors with their draw in Chicago...I've got them as a small dog against Ohio St in the 12/13 game...and then they'd probably be about a 3.5 point dog against Iowa. I'm guessing that they'd need both of those games too., although it's interesting at 18-14 should they lose to Iowa.
It matters a little bit. A committee member can watch Rutgers and think "man they stink" and then find the right metrics to make their point. So when they make their point they're not saying "I watched this team and they don't belong," but that'll still be the genesis of it.
I know what you are saying yet you cant take away the wins on resume
Bac - This team has become gutless and embarrassing. Undeserving of a bid. Very sad to see what happened to them after such a good start. Oh well, Rutgers gotta Rutgers.
And Northwestern isnt a bad loss to move 8 spots to out of field
We are like a horse who has a huge lead and trying to find the wire. if season ended today, we hang on. Issue is we have one furlong left and our legs are heavy and the field is closing strong.
It matters not at this point! Penn State has taken our bid. We now have to beat Michigan to get in. Period.
people declaring Rutgers out better being doing their homework on the their last 8 in and first 4 out
The only guy declaring we are out no matter what is just a troll trying (and hilariously failing) to rile you up.
Other people are saying "no way we beat Michigan" which is wrong but a different argument.
This
When you break down the last four in and the first four out…our resume is better
Here is the reality though
We to need to win Thursday to persevere it at 11-11/19-14….
A loss makes us 10-11/18-14….and pushes michgan ahead of us . Plus PSU and Wisconsin get opornutors to push ahead of us
I’ll say that IF we win …and Illinois beats Penn state AND if Wisconsin loses to either Ohio state or the quarterfinal game , we are clearly ahead of all three for certain ….and in good shape
We are big Ohio state and Illinois fans right now …
Indeed!
Would be nice going in with a cushion, but look at a the resumes of that grouping. I’ll take us in any blind test.
Would be nice to not sweat bud stealers though
Team A(20-11) 3-9 5-1 (8-10) 4-0
Q1 H Purdue, H Indiana, N Miami
Q2 vs ILL, vs Ohio St, vs Mich, vs Penn St, vs NW
Team B(18-13) 5-6 4-4 (9-10) 2-3
Q1 @ Purdue, H Indiana, @ NW, H Maryland, @ Penn St
Q2 vs Mich St, vs Ohio St, @ Wisconsin, vs Penn St
Team C(17-14) 3-11 5-2 (8-13) 5-0, Q4 4-1
Q1 H Maryland, @ NW, @ RU
I know it's not looking good right now but we are not the same team, pre Mag injury, 16-7(8-4), and post injury 2-6(2-6). It doesn't change what we have done. Those three blemishes, Temple no Paul/Caleb, and Neb/Minn no Mag. Missing starters contributed to all three, one starter we aren't getting back unfortunately.
Both B and C beat team A, but team A is comfortably in? Maryland didn't slip up vs St Louis, vs Nebraska in Jan, Home vs Wisc, team we won @, and swept Minnesota 2-0 for their 4th Q3, 8-0 vs Q4 to our 7-0.
The resumes laid out.
Q1 H Purdue, H Indiana, N Miami
Q2 vs ILL, vs Ohio St, vs Mich, vs Penn St, vs NW
Team B(18-13) 5-6 4-4 (9-10) 2-3
Q1 @ Purdue, H Indiana, @ NW, H Maryland, @ Penn St
Q2 vs Mich St, vs Ohio St, @ Wisconsin, vs Penn St
Team C(17-14) 3-11 5-2 (8-13) 5-0, Q4 4-1
Q1 H Maryland, @ NW, @ RU
I know it's not looking good right now but we are not the same team, pre Mag injury, 16-7(8-4), and post injury 2-6(2-6). It doesn't change what we have done. Those three blemishes, Temple no Paul/Caleb, and Neb/Minn no Mag. Missing starters contributed to all three, one starter we aren't getting back unfortunately.
Both B and C beat team A, but team A is comfortably in? Maryland didn't slip up vs St Louis, vs Nebraska in Jan, Home vs Wisc, team we won @, and swept Minnesota 2-0 for their 4th Q3, 8-0 vs Q4 to our 7-0.
The resumes laid out.
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Brad Wachtel disagrees
“Rutgers chances for the NCAA tourney is officially in serious jeopardy,” acclaimed bracketlogist Brad Wachtel tweeted. “It’s not just the losing, it’s also the eye test. They don’t look the part. The Rutgers/Michigan game in the B1G tourney is now essentially a play OUT game. Neither team is guaranteed a spot with a win.”
The eye test isnt a criteria. Whether its "used" or not has been a debate for decades. Its like any other bias a committee member brings in that you hope is put aside. The committee should be voting based on the criteria laid out by the selection committee
If PSU and Wiscy make it and we don’t, has team with 8 wins against the field ever not made it before?
Maybe a bloated school like OK or Texas from the past few years butvI think 8 might be tops..could be 9 if Lowell wins America East
Rider could win their conf tourney as well. They split with Iona in the regular season, both 2-3 point games.
Working on update but im almost positive I still have Rutgers in the field TODAY
@bac2therac thoughts on RU AS St resumes?
“Board will think this is crazy but having a tough time separating Rutgers and Arizona state, Arizona state is 8-10 q1+2 including wins at Arizona and neutral vs Creighton, they also beat Michigan and vcu neutral in q2, they're 12-1 q3+4 the 1 being a loss by 1 to net 313 Texas southern, they also have a winning road record and are 3-0 neutral which is bizarre for a bubble team”
“Board will think this is crazy but having a tough time separating Rutgers and Arizona state, Arizona state is 8-10 q1+2 including wins at Arizona and neutral vs Creighton, they also beat Michigan and vcu neutral in q2, they're 12-1 q3+4 the 1 being a loss by 1 to net 313 Texas southern, they also have a winning road record and are 3-0 neutral which is bizarre for a bubble team”
Obviously this will change depending on Thursday, but for now...
Obviously, there should be no chance of matching 2 B1G teams in the play-in game, so either one of three will be left out or one will move up to the last 11 seed. I don't think March Madness has ever matched conference foes in the first round or play in ever. Just because he says there are no principles doesn't mean it doesn't exist. I don't want to see Rutgers play B1G again after 21+ B1G games after Thursday or Friday to get into the tournament.
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they beat Arizona and Creighton but what else
2 wins vs teams in field is a tough sell...they will draw USC in Pac 12 quarters, if they lose that one, its 0-3 vs a 10 seed
To me not close, RU has more and they both have one high end win.