Anything is possible, but it would be VERY surprising if the Beaver Stadium project came in "over budget", for several reasons. But "Never Say Never"
Large PSU capital projects rarely come in "over budget"
The most obvious and important reasons are:
1) PSU does not "bid out" contracts to the lowest bidder (I am surprised how many people still think that is the case - but it is not. Probably because it can be standard SOP in many government or other large entities)
In fact, PSU doesn't even "bid out to a list of pre-approved, pre-vetted" contractors (which is the very common practice among PSU's peers)
2) PSU CapX Admin decides how much money to ask the BOT to approve, and the BOT approves it (always). Knowing that, who would make an ask that would be tough to deliver on - working against their own self-interests?
That is (largely, or at least substantially) why large PSU capital projects typically cost 20%, 30%, 40% or more than comparable projects at our peers'.
It is rather difficult to go "over budget" in those scenarios - even if you try. Honestly, I can't - OTTOMH - remember any time in recent history that happened at PSU for large scale CapX (for the reasons above)
[Smaller projects are handled somewhat differently]
ie: Going over $700 Million on a project of this scope (that most of our peers would have had bid out at, lets say, somewhere around $500 Million or so) would be tough to do.
Lesser impact, but relevant:
The two primary building components here are Steel and Concrete.
3) For both Steel and Concrete: After large price increases in 2021 and 2022 and 2023, steel prices now are down from those highs (table below). They are creeping back up - but not nearly at those rates we saw over the last few years.
Whatever impact "price of steel and concrete" had in the projections for Beaver Stadium (the projections would have been taking place in 2023-24), the current pricing is almost certainly at or lower than those estimates. In any event, there would be no negative "surprises", at least to this date.
4) A large portion of the work/cost is already done (it often doesn't "look like it" in the early stages - as so much of the early work is not the pretty stuff that people will notice when it is all done) - and, one would assume, pricing is locked in on a large portion of what remains - so any future construction market costs volatility would not be all that impactful, if it were to occur.
There definitely are rumors and scuttlebutt around the local area wrt "cost overruns" and other project management issues. Who knows? There are some fairly well-known facts that would be congruent with those types of problems, but sometimes rumors are just rumors - sometimes they have legs. Still, the level of fat/wiggle room provided by the costing cover up a LOT of sins.
Best guess: The project comes in at something a tad UNDER $700 Million (would be my best somewhat educated guess) - and they likely will be adding, rather than subtracting, as the project nears completion. Time will tell. You never know.
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