Bubble shrinks
- Thread starter NYShoreGuy
- Start date
I understand the schedule Miami of Ohio played, but IMO they have to be included as an at-large.
I think a big reason why the bubble is so weak is exactly why most of the Big East has been so weak and inconsistent. Everyone is playing with 10 or more brand new players with no continuity from previous year, no established culture, and that results in inconsistency. You have some good wins but a lot of questionable losses. The entire Big East below Villanova is that way. We've been beating up on each other all year.
This is their best hope. Their resume doesn’t stand up as an at-large. Let them take it up with their conference.
I think people need to get beyond the thought that SHU has any shot at an at-large bid. It's BET champions or bust (Fox NIL).
Agree, let’s just get to Friday night.
The Peacock guys suggested a win tomorrow night gives us a chance at an at large, assuming it was SJU and not Providence. But Carino's article and various other "bubble predictors" seem lockstep in that we have no chance of an at-large (i.e., even playing UCONN tight in a final won't move the needle, because that never does). If Carino is saying it is BET title or bust, I tend to think that's the case, but who knows.
At least we are playing Friday. Been a while. My view is to enjoy the ride and see where it lands.
Depends on how the rest of tournaments are. Hope something like MWC, there isn't a BS upset. Auburn is interesting cause I see they are getting hype. Personally don't like giving a 17-18 win team win just because they play in a tougher conference. There needs to be balance and consideration to at least getting 20 wins. If Auburn don't get 19-20 wins, hopefully SH making BE final can be more favorable but doubt. I do think you got to win anyway. better safe than sorry even if it's hard, but hopefully some luck goes our way either way.
I hear you. The problem with comparing us to Auburn is that Auburn is going to have a bunch of more high-end, quality Ws, because of the strength of the SEC gives them more opportunities to do so.
Right now, our best W of the season is in Maui against NC. State. Who, right now, is a bubble team itself. That's it. The W over SJU would give us our best W of the season, but even then you are talking about 1 quality W versus the tourney field (in a conference tournament) and NC. State after that, who isn't yet in the dance it seems.
I think Jerry is still feeling the pain of announcing two years ago that SH punched their ticket by beating DePaul at home, only for the bubble to completely boil over in the ensuing two weeks. Better to hedge than give unwarranted hope or confidence
Yea, his article coming out of Maui was headlined “a contender has emerged” or something like that. I remember having to read the headline multiple times so I could be sure what I was exactly looking at.
All that to say that if we had a punchers chance at an at large, I think he’d be saying so. But most of the others seem to indicate that as well. I stopped studying the bubble metrics once we faltered a few times down the stretch, but when the Peacock guys said a win tomorrow gets us in, it got me thinking.
I mean they just lost, but I see their record it's literally 7-11 in conference play. At least in 2023 we were literally 13-7 and this year even with bad losses at least 10-10 and 11-10 for now. For me you have tor reward at least being 20 wins and around 4-8 in your conference especially if it's competitive. They were a 12 seed. I just personally don't like rewarding that. My cutoff is 19 wins and you at least made semifinals of your tournament but that's because we have seen that. I remember Kentucky in 2014 and I believe they even lost before the semifinals. I do agree they have gotten some huge wins like against Florida and others, but I still don't reward a team that doesn't get at least 20 wins by 2nd round of a conference tournament.
Carino and the bubble predictors are probably right. Right now we have 1 win, just 1 win against teams projected in the tournament. We also only have 1 win vs a power conference team that is above .500 for the year. Both situations it's NC State. We've beat up on crap. The question iis can we get in with only 2 good wins if we beat SJU. Seems unlikely but I would take it if ever happened.
The NET rankings as of today of our OOC P4 teams NC St 35, USC 79, KSU 100, mighty RU 141.
And before our game today I heard at least one of the bracketologists say NC State was “first 4 out” right now.
Conf tournament week should have little consideration to the total package of making the field. Of course the metrics will help P4 only because if you were a mid team in your conference you are now getting shots at metric chances as early as QF round.
BTW an 18 win shu team was safely in a field in 2006.
FSU winning against Duke. F ACC bro. Ruined 2023 for us letting trash NC state win tournament. Now this FSU could get in. Probably get in by beating golden boy trash Duke. Unbelievable, but we have to win the BE final anyway regardless. No point leaving anything up to committee. It's going to be insane luck regardless, but thought bubble luck would help us but the overrated ACC who has given power to SEC and big 12 makes me laugh. Hope Duke choke again like they have since 2015.
With the win, SHU’s WAB could move from 57 to about 50. Another win over St John’s could push them into the high 40’s. The metrics will also get a boost with a win tomorrow. The key is that a lot of bubble teams have already gone down. Va Tech, Indiana, SMU, Cal, Texas, and Auburn (earlier today).
Plus, does Miami (Oh) now survive a Q4 loss? With no Q1 wins?
Root against San Diego State, New Mexico and Oklahoma in the late games tonight.
Win tomorrow and an at-large berth may not be impossible.
Plus, does Miami (Oh) now survive a Q4 loss? With no Q1 wins?
Root against San Diego State, New Mexico and Oklahoma in the late games tonight.
Win tomorrow and an at-large berth may not be impossible.
The problem is that what Sha said at his press conference was seemingly backwards to most people involved in this stuff. He said the Big East has "good" teams top to bottom, beyond just the first few everyone knows about. But that these other high major leagues are "top heavy". Which is literally the opposite of what the Committee or frankly anyone involved in college basketball thinks is the situation. In past years and better times, a Big East team that was .500 or above in the league and won 20+ games was pretty safely a lock in the field. We've learned these last few years this isn't the case anymore, and this Big East is the weakest version of what we've seen those past few years.
Not good with Oklahoma. Literally crushing A&M, but honestly a lot of luck going our way with today's win and other bubble teams choking. It really one game at a time at this point and making that final gives yourself at least the best shot to control your destiny.
Brad Wachtel doesn’t even have us in last four out.
