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Bubble Watch

NittanyPirate

NittanyPirate

Junior
Feb 18, 2007
271
396
63
Post upcoming bubble games and results here.
Bold teams are teams I assume we should root for but I welcome the thoughts and opinions of others.

Texas @ Georgia
BC @ SMU
Oregon @ USC
WVU @ TCU
SDSU @ Colorado State
Stanford @ California
Illinois @ UCLA
New Mexico @ Fresno State
A&M @ Oklahoma
UCF @ Utah
Utah St @ Nevada
Santa Clara @ San Francisco
Georgetown @ Seton Hall

Results
Va Tech > Wake Forest
FSU > Clemson
Virginia > Miami
 
H

HallGuy2323

Senior
Jun 3, 2020
638
421
63
NittanyPirate said:
Post upcoming bubble games and results here.
Bold teams are teams I assume we should root for but I welcome the thoughts and opinions of others.

Texas @ Georgia
BC @ SMU
Oregon @ USC
WVU @ TCU
SDSU @ Colorado State
Stanford @ California
Illinois @ UCLA
New Mexico @ Fresno State
A&M @ Oklahoma
UCF @ Utah
Utah St @ Nevada
Santa Clara @ San Francisco
Georgetown @ Seton Hall

Results
Va Tech > Wake Forest
FSU > Clemson
Virginia > Miami
Click to expand...
It’s over man. It was over two weeks ago. Now it’s dead.
 
I

IronKaz1

Junior
Mar 21, 2004
537
293
63
they piss me off but at 18-9 we still have a "chance" wouldnt you rather have a chance then none at all? they make me crazy but its nice to still be in a conversation
 
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TommyD82

Freshman
Jul 6, 2025
97
63
18
Sad that is over but the bubble is nice to watch. The last couple of years the bubble was pathetic and now with these mega conferences it is just weird to me.
 
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V

VegasPJ1

Junior
Feb 19, 2023
524
380
47
IronKaz1 said:
they piss me off but at 18-9 we still have a "chance" wouldnt you rather have a chance then none at all? they make me crazy but its nice to still be in a conversation
Click to expand...
The only conversation is who might be on the team next year. Bubble burst vs DePaul. NIT or buy in tourney maybe.
 
Last edited:
NittanyPirate

NittanyPirate

Junior
Feb 18, 2007
271
396
63
It’s just about over. But the thread title shouldn’t be too confusing.

I knew which posters would be the first to show up. This thread isn’t for them but they’re welcome to do their thing here and on every other thread.
 
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shu09

Junior
Jan 6, 2006
317
335
63
IronKaz1 said:
they piss me off but at 18-9 we still have a "chance" wouldnt you rather have a chance then none at all? they make me crazy but its nice to still be in a conversation
Click to expand...
18 wins, but 16 of them very little to no quality.
 
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HallGuy2323

Senior
Jun 3, 2020
638
421
63
NittanyPirate said:
It’s just about over. But the thread title shouldn’t be too confusing.

I knew which posters would be the first to show up. This thread isn’t for them but they’re welcome to do their thing here and on every other thread.
Click to expand...
So you made some type of irrelevant bait-post right before our game started. And you want to talk about “which posters would show up.” Look in the mirror
 
NittanyPirate

NittanyPirate

Junior
Feb 18, 2007
271
396
63
HallGuy2323 said:
So you made some type of irrelevant bait-post right before our game started. And you want to talk about “which posters would show up.” Look in the mirror
Click to expand...
I’ve been here a little before this game and posting similar things. Tell me why you would respond to an “irrelevant” post?

You are exactly the poster I’m here to entertain. I guarantee you and I have more in common than you would like to believe.
 
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NYC Pirate

Senior
Nov 11, 2007
650
616
92
New Mexico came back from 21 down to win. Much more enjoyable game to watch than ours. Two or three players in that game look like they could play at SHU.
 
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NYC Pirate

Senior
Nov 11, 2007
650
616
92
Prov beats DePaul which helps SHU. It was not out of the question for DePaul to pass The Hall. DePaul will probably lose two more games, and they cannot pass SHU at that point. The Hall are clinging to life, and they better elevate their level of play. It doesn't look good.

SHU will probably be beaten by UConn by a substantial margin next week. Maybe a rested Hall team can at least keep it competitive.
The Xavier game is a Must. Then you take your best shot against SJU at home. Could be a great atmosphere at The Rock.

Have to beat Creighton in the 4/5 game at MSG. Won't be easy.

If they advance SJU or UConn waiting in all likelihood. The best we can ask for at this point.
 
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F

Fishjam

All-Conference
Mar 27, 2016
651
2,247
93
NCAA President Charlie Baker wants to add 4 to 8 at-large bids to the tournament for next year. That would have put us in 2 years ago and possibly this year too. He uses us as an example and mentions many Top 50 teams are left out in the current format.

Baker is of the belief that the 36 at-large cutoff is too small for the number of teams that should get a crack on the biggest stage in the sport.

"That leaves 36 spots," Baker said. "That means you're going to leave a bunch of the top 50 teams out of the tournament, right? ... I mean, couple years ago I was kind of bummed when Seton Hall and Indiana State didn't get in the tournament, because they both had quality wins and quality schedules. ... The more you do to create opportunities for the so-called bubble teams each year to get into the tournament, first of all, it puts some other really good teams that probably might belong there. But it also protects the AQs, right? Because I don't want to end up in a situation where people say we need to do something about the AQs because we're keeping too many good teams out of the tournament."

www.cbssports.com

NCAA pausing talks on NCAA Tournament expansion as president reaffirms support enlarging field in future

Baker spoke Thursday in Indianapolis with a small group of media and also dove into bigger issues facing the NCAA
www.cbssports.com www.cbssports.com
 
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P

Piratz

All-Conference
Mar 24, 2004
1,301
2,555
113
Left Coast Pirates said:
???

how is the bottom not the issue?

If the BE conference results had remained the same but the bottom half performed much better during the out of conference, we would be sitting in a much stronger spot. Most likely a NET closer to 40 than 50.
Click to expand...
Yeah I agree if everyone had done better out of conference the wave would raise all ships. Of course if those teams were better we may also be worse. All things equal, we'd have a better NET, sure, idk about impact wins though.

By the logic of the tweet based on the situation as-is, the bottom of the BE isn't "terrible" as defined by KP and we may get all teams until KP 100 for the first time in 6 years, conveying the bottom is better than it has been. The league's big problem right now with only 3 NCAAT teams is its middle teams aren't good enough to distance themselves from that bottom in league play. The 4th team in the league is only 9-8 without a win against a team with a winning conference record.
 
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N

NCAAsorBust

Junior
Jan 14, 2026
474
384
63
Left Coast Pirates said:
???

how is the bottom not the issue?

If the BE conference results had remained the same but the bottom half performed much better during the out of conference, we would be sitting in a much stronger spot. Most likely a NET closer to 40 than 50.
Click to expand...
If they performed better it likely would have been because they are better. The reason we’re 9-8 is because they suck. If they didn’t suck we at best have 6 big east wins. It’s not even about win/loss results. I’ve never watched A-10 or CAA conference games but the level of play we are watching by big east teams 4-11 is what I always pictured those conferences to be.
 
S

shu09

Junior
Jan 6, 2006
317
335
63
Left Coast Pirates said:
???

how is the bottom not the issue?

If the BE conference results had remained the same but the bottom half performed much better during the out of conference, we would be sitting in a much stronger spot. Most likely a NET closer to 40 than 50.
Click to expand...

The middle and bottom of the Big East is absolutely the issue. Could there be a third top 20-ish team? Sure, but having two is pretty good. The very top isn't the problem. The rest of the league is an issue. Too many teams outside the top 50.
 
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Left Coast Pirates

Left Coast Pirates

Senior
Feb 6, 2019
244
559
93
phelanma said:
I think if the bottom of the BE was better, we wouldn't be in right now in 4th place.
Click to expand...
That is a possibility. But the fact that they all were sub par in the OOC forced us to be flawless against everyone 5-11 in the standings.

the only difference between us and Nova are the following:
- not as many stumbles vs 5-11 as we had
- they beat us twice head to head
- their offense is better so their metrics don’t take a hit from that perspective.

but if they had split with us and lost another game or to a bottom feeder, they would be in dangerous bubble territory.

the BE did not do itself any favors for acquiring multiple bids this year
 
D

dehere23

All-Conference
Feb 28, 2015
1,046
1,026
113
Left Coast Pirates said:
???

how is the bottom not the issue?

If the BE conference results had remained the same but the bottom half performed much better during the out of conference, we would be sitting in a much stronger spot. Most likely a NET closer to 40 than 50.
Click to expand...
The stat is also misleading because we’ve had some truly awful teams the past few years that were way outside the top 100, whether that be us, Gtown or Depaul.

The problem this year isn’t the top, nor is it one team at the bottom that’s going to win 1 or 2 games in the league. The problem is the middle isn’t anywhere close as strong to what it’s been.
 
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radecicco

All-Conference
Jun 24, 2013
752
1,148
93
All true about the BE being down. IMO this is an outiler year. The 15 team ACC got only four teams in two years ago and were roundly criticized. They have recovered. So will the BE.

(Yes two years ago the BE only got three teams in but there were extenuating circumstances as we all know.)
 
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dehere23

All-Conference
Feb 28, 2015
1,046
1,026
113
radecicco said:
All true about the BE being down. IMO this is an outiler year. The 15 team ACC got only four teams in two years ago and were roundly criticized. They have recovered. So will the BE.

(Yes two years ago the BE only got three teams in but there were extenuating circumstances as we all know.)
Click to expand...
Yes, but the 4-6 in the Big East that year were ions better than the 4-6 this year. In fact they are much closer to Nova if not better than or just as good as Nova.
 
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dehere23

All-Conference
Feb 28, 2015
1,046
1,026
113
To add, just looked at the Kenpom 2024 rankings. Of the Big East teams that missed the dance:

SJU was 21
Nova 37
Us 50
Providence 59

If you go by NET rankings, there were 5 Big East teams between 32 (St Johns) and us (67). Beyond the 3 top teams that year who all were in like the top 15/20.
 
T

TheHall87

Senior
Jun 3, 2001
439
625
93
For the purposes of this thread, it is not over. With a second four out projection, we are squarely on the bubble.

Yes, our chances are very, very slim but not they're not done. Lots can happen over the next couple of weeks.

As for the Ken Pom portion of this thread, seven of 11 teams have 13 or more losses and only two of those teams, DePaul and Butler are above
500 overall.

While there are no terrible teams, a la Georgetown and DePaul from two years ago, this year there are way too many mediocre teams. Ideally you want those .500 or so teams only filling the last four or five spots while the top six or seven have a profile like ours or better.
 
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