If we are a dancing team. This is a must win With Creighton trending in a positive direction. we cannot fall to 0-2 at home against fellow bubble teams especially with the historical success we’ve had @ Nova and @creighton
Creighton = Must win
- Thread starter Gohall129
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This is not a must win game, but it would be very helpful for Seton Hall's chances as a possible NCAA tournament team.
If you want to be a tournament team, the real must win games are those against the weak teams in the conference - Marquette, DePaul, Xavier, Georgetown, & Providence.
If you want to be a tournament team, the real must win games are those against the weak teams in the conference - Marquette, DePaul, Xavier, Georgetown, & Providence.
I really think we need to go 13-7 in conference. As a result, we need to win 5 road games (Providence, Marquette, Gtown, Depaul and Xavier), and 7 home games (Providence, Gtown, Depaul, Marquette, Xavier, Butler, and Creighton). And we then need to get another win somewhere (at Nova, at Butler or St John's at home). As a result, i don't think we have room for error losing at home to Creighton.
The annual home win against Uconn would greatly help the cause as well.
Splitting with Creighton and nova is more important than slipping against one of those teams.
In theory it’s not a must win game but in reality it is. You cannot afford to go 0-4 vs Nova and Creighton.
It’s not realistic to expect to beat them on road or pick up a win against UConn. 0-6 vs that group would make it extremely unlikely to make the tourney. Theres only one game remaining amongst the group where we will be expected to win. That’s this Sunday.
It’s not realistic to expect to beat them on road or pick up a win against UConn. 0-6 vs that group would make it extremely unlikely to make the tourney. Theres only one game remaining amongst the group where we will be expected to win. That’s this Sunday.
Agreed. Once again it is a Very important game, not a must win. We want this one badly though. Most important is how they play. A big red flag if they are humbled at home again. So far USC and Villanova could be tournament teams. We are not sure what Creighton's season will look like in March. They have a lot of work to do just like The Hall.
I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that we lose to Nova in Philly. We played our worst game of the season at home against them, unfortunately. Winning in Omaha, on the other hand...
With Rodney rice out for the year. There is a high probability that USC slides to bubble team
Head to head matters amongst conference teams on the bubble together. Committee won’t put us in over creighton even with us having a slightly higher NET if we go 0-2 vs them
it's too early for a must win game with a 12-2 record
Losing at Creighton is not a foregone conclusion if we win on Sunday. On the other hand, if we lose, we will get swept again
SHU Creighton History
2014 - Creighton Sweep
2015 - Pirate Sweep
2016 - 2-1 Pirates
2017 - 1-1
2018 - 1-1
2019 - Pirate Sweep
2020 - Creighton Sweep
2021 - Creighton Sweep
2022 - Pirate Sweep
2023 - Creighton Sweep
2024 - Creighton Sweep
2025 - Creighton Sweep
SHU Creighton History
2014 - Creighton Sweep
2015 - Pirate Sweep
2016 - 2-1 Pirates
2017 - 1-1
2018 - 1-1
2019 - Pirate Sweep
2020 - Creighton Sweep
2021 - Creighton Sweep
2022 - Pirate Sweep
2023 - Creighton Sweep
2024 - Creighton Sweep
2025 - Creighton Sweep
Possible vs probable. It’s certainly possible, but it will be difficult to win those road games.
Someone said it above, the head to head amongst nova/shu/creighton/butler will come into play. Those four teams are fighting for 2, maybe 3, bids.
If we get Budd for more than 2 minutes in the first half at Nova, we can easily win.
The reality in BE this year is that every game where a top half team (Nova, Creighton, SHU, maybe Butler) plays a bottom half team will be like a NCAAT elimination game. The league is down this year and it will be a stretch to get more than four teams in. Just can’t lose to those teams and expect to make the NCAAT. One good thing about our resume so far is zero bad losses and two OOC Quad 1 wins.
Exactly.. Can’t lose 2 to Creighton this year which is why it’s a must win
I’ll trade a road loss to Georgetown for wins over Butler and Creighton at home ten outta ten times this year
I think it’s likely everyone will pick up a “what the heck?” loss along the way. Someone will lose to Marquette, someone will lose to DePaul, etc.
I think it will ultimately come down to your record in this mini conference. The top two will make it. The 3rd will sweat it out. The 4th is cooked.
I think it will ultimately come down to your record in this mini conference. The top two will make it. The 3rd will sweat it out. The 4th is cooked.
This is semantics as it’s certainly an important game, but I have always characterized that “Must Win” games only occur when the requirements for advancement are known and there is no margin for a loss. We simply don’t know that at this juncture.
On the target BE record for an NCAA bid, a 10-1 OOC and a 12-8 BE record for an overall record of 22-9 would seem to make you a lock to make the NCAAs. I don’t think a 9-loss BE regular season team has ever missed the tourney.
On the target BE record for an NCAA bid, a 10-1 OOC and a 12-8 BE record for an overall record of 22-9 would seem to make you a lock to make the NCAAs. I don’t think a 9-loss BE regular season team has ever missed the tourney.
This is a good point, but it's still very early to call it a must win. That said, I don't see Seton Hall as a tournament team when all is said and done.
It’s never too early to be hungry and a little desperate to prove something
That’s fine. You can pretend it’s not, but it’s critical in terms of making the tournament. It’s universally agreed that 12 BigEast wins is our magic number. You’re 100% correct that even with a loss on Sunday there’s still 16 opportunities to pick up 10 more wins, but I challenge you to go through the schedule and find 10 *realistic* wins without Creighton. It’s tough.
Things change. How many realistic wins did we originally see in the OOC? 7, 8?
Eight games in January. 5-3 or 6-2 provides hope for February. Although Hines injury was a setback, I still expect him to be a much bigger force in February and March. They need to stick to their identity.
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K state is about to walk into a gauntlet of a schedule. USC Stock is going to fall without rice. Picking up wins in the top 50-60 is a MUST when the opportunity presents
I believe budd play 35 mpg last year. If he can keep up the D w out fouling id say run him 35
No it is not universally agreed that 12 is the magic number, If you win 12 then you have to take 2 games in the BE tourney otherwise no dance.
If you win 14 then you are probably in regardless of the BE tourney results. If you win 13 you have to win at least 1 BE tourney game to have a chance.
That is the way I see it.
No way, not with the usual weakness of the NCAA bubble.
I don’t think 12 is the number yet either.
Go back to the 23-24 season, every article written down the stretch by Carino claimed 12 wins the magic number, until it wasn’t and the goal posts got moved to 13.
until that wasn’t good enough and we needed an extra win in the BE to avoid being in that Dayton play-in grouping of teams.
And then after numerous bid stealers none of it was good enough.
too many bad metrics teams at the moment in the conference. Which means many landmines and fewer opportunities to improve the team sheet. So I do agree with you that the Creighton game is a very important resume piece this early in the season.
Playing zone defense, sure. Anyone can play 35 mpg. Sha’s system is way more demanding. That said, Budd has to play as many minutes as humanly possible. There just isn’t another answer when he’s on the bench.
It's futile to play the "how many games to clinch " game this early in the season. There are so many variables and so much that can change in the next 2 months of the season. As you mentioned, its not even accurate to play it late in the season.
The big difference between 23/24 and this year is the OOC. We were terrible in the OOC that year going 7-4 with our best win a Quad 3 over KenPom #145 Missouri. Our other 6 Wins were all Quad 4. We lost to #100 Rutgers on our Home court and we finished the OOC rated #84 in KP.
This year we finished the OOC 48th in KP with no bad losses and 2 Quad 1 Wins so we are in far better shape. Evan Miya ranks our current Resume as #24 in the Country, 3rd in the BE.
The Creighton game is important but all games are important. Our next 6 games are currently all Quad 1 or Quad 2. Need to bag as many as possible.
Creighton 49 Q2
@GT 129 Q2
UConn 8 Q1
Butler 45 Q2
@STJ 26 Q1
@Depaul 134 Q2
Sha has never beaten McDermott in 6 tries and with the exception of the Triple Overtime game, every loss has been by at least 13 points. Sha needs to exorcise this demon and we need to defend our home court. Creighton is going to be hungry as this is a Quad 1 opportunity for them, the same as it was for Nova.
Good summary as usual. If there is a game for Sha to get off the scnide with McDermott this is it. Need a couple of 12-0 runs where stifling defense creates some points off turnovers.
As you said, an important win with SJU and UConn coming up shortly. A must win by definition implies that the alternative is pretty much a death sentence. A lot of basketball to be played.
It’s a win that’s needed to avoid future “must win” games.
For argument sake let’s say 12 isn’t enough (although metrics indicate 12 wins moves us to 62% chance of in), that just strengthens the argument that today is a must win. I don’t think a team that averages 5.9 threes a game is going to go 11-5 over the final 16.
Assuming we get swept by UConn that means we go 11-3 against the rest and that include St. John’s 2x, butler 2x, @ nova, @ Creighton. That’s just not a likely scenario.
On the other hand, if someone on the board had started a thread three months ago trying to debate how this team can get to 12, 13 or 14 BE wins, they would have been ridiculed by everyone.
The fact we are even discussing this now is pretty miraculous.
As far as the rest of the season, I really do think Hines is the wildcard. If he can be a force by February, that makes the offense that much more effective as he has such good hands and finishing ability around the basket.
The fact we are even discussing this now is pretty miraculous.
As far as the rest of the season, I really do think Hines is the wildcard. If he can be a force by February, that makes the offense that much more effective as he has such good hands and finishing ability around the basket.
Every time is different. Who knows what the landscape will look like in March. I remember the outrage when Seton Hall and Boston College went 10-6 in the BE in 2003 and didn’t get in for SEC teams who were .500 or below. Our non-con was terrible.
In 2024 you had 5 upsets and teams who would not have been in bumped us to 2nd out. Again, our non-con was terrible.
We’ll be right there at 22-9, 12-8. Our non-con is good with 2 quality wins despite weak SOS. Let’s see what the rest of the country looks like… the Bubble has been so weak.
Going 0-2 at home to Villanova and Creighton would be disappointing. But these teams are 12-1 against Holloway since taking over.
In 2024 you had 5 upsets and teams who would not have been in bumped us to 2nd out. Again, our non-con was terrible.
We’ll be right there at 22-9, 12-8. Our non-con is good with 2 quality wins despite weak SOS. Let’s see what the rest of the country looks like… the Bubble has been so weak.
Going 0-2 at home to Villanova and Creighton would be disappointing. But these teams are 12-1 against Holloway since taking over.
Two teams we do not match up well with. Unlike the Nova game we must come out strong and take the lead and dictate the game to our style of play .