You did a great job listing some things for people to think about.
However, you did not do a good job justifying this war. Nor did the administration. So its not really your fault and more the people in charge fault.
I reread my post just to remember what i had posted and i kinda sounded like a dick when i @'d you. That wasn't the reason i posted. My intent going in was to detail out the actions that Iranian regime has taken to maim and kill americans since the 1979 revolution. The most recent ayatolla was there at the beginning so he worked his way up to eventually run crazytown so he's been party to it all.
I don't think the initial messaging from the admin was good. I could say that about a number of other things that the amin has done as well, but that's another thing.
I can maybe make a guess as to the admin's justification from what i've heard from various admin officials and trump and i think they are getting it together, but i didn't do it so i can't speak for them definitively.
I support the action so I can tell you why I do. I believe 100% that given their history, they will continue to kill americans however they can. I believe that they export terrorism and unrest thoughout the region and beyond. I beleve Iran as it exists today is the single biggest impediment to peace throughout the region and the single biggest reason why we have to have the level of military presense that we have historically had in the reason. I agree with the policy of no nukes. I believe that them devloping even longer range ballistic missiles to include ICBMs is unacceptable. I believe that they will continue to disrupt oil tanker traffic when it suits them, as they have in the past. I belive they will never completely give up their nuke weapon progam or ballistic missile program, as they got back to it after our attack last year. I believe they may say they will, but they will find ways to cheat. I also believe it likely that we didn't destroy as much of their program last year as we said/thought we did. I believe that some sort of armed conflict with Iran would be inevitable in the future. I believe that even if we don't get a stable, democratic government immediately that after we neuter iran's military capabilities, that Israel and the other gulf states will be able to keep them in check without massive involvment by us.
Why now? I believe that conditions lined up for this to be the most favorable opportunity to solve or partially solve all the issues i listed above. I posted probably way up this thread or the other a list of reasons what i think are the factors uniquely lining up in favor of now that can't be assumed will happen any time soon. Not least of which the iranian regime is having to brutally supress internal dissent so they are vulerable internally to some extent and a large segment of the population ready for change.
The other reasons are that waiting could very well be much much worse. Iran was going full speed ahead producing cheap drones and cheap shorter range missiles (enough range to threaten the region) with production ramping up. The pace of that exceeds the pace that the US and others in the region could make systems / munitions to counter. At some point (and the admin is making the case that it would be soon) , Iran woudl have too many to counter and then could use that increase the price for taking action in the future, effectively providing top cover for their nuke and ICBM program. Imagine if Iran had 5x the number of missles/drones etc. and ICBMs and after that nukes?
Lastly i think we and israel had good penetration of the iranian leadership to support decapitation strikes (makes the military campaign easier) ... that can't be guaranteed to last forever.
So all that can be boiled down to saying, the best time to solve a problem is when it's easiest to solve. Right now, to me, doesn't seem like a bad time.
And it goes without saying that now that we are where we are... we need to see it through.