Military Strikes on Iran Imminent

Aardvark86

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Oct 12, 2021
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I don't even know how to respond to this. Are you claiming that he should have known that we were planning to kill all of Iran's leaders and the ME would explode with targets in other ME countries being hit and their airspaces shut down? And you believe it's as easy to travel from one Middle Eastern country to another by land as it is to travel by rental car across the US?


No, I am contending that when you are to travel to the ME in a time of publicly high tension, you do some additional backup planning ahead of time. That can involve a very wide range of things indeed, from not going at all and/or meeting virtually, to arranging backup ground transport (either internally within or externally out of a country), to (in some extremely limited cases), extraction. The point is, there are things that can be done on teh planning front. But either way, when you do actually find yourself in a war zone that could have been anticipated, you don't take to twitter and whine about it.
 

dpic73

Heisman
Jul 27, 2005
27,873
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No, I am contending that when you are to travel to the ME in a time of publicly high tension, you do some additional backup planning ahead of time. That can involve a very wide range of things indeed, from not going at all and/or meeting virtually, to arranging backup ground transport (either internally within or externally out of a country), to (in some extremely limited cases), extraction. The point is, there are things that can be done on teh planning front. But either way, when you do actually find yourself in a war zone that could have been anticipated, you don't take to twitter and whine about it.
I don't agree that he should have anticipated he wouldn't be able to fly out of Dubai and I wouldn't call what he did whining. He was desperate to find a way out and the hotline Rubio advised citizens to call gave them no help, so in his post you can see that he was tagging @usgov and @SecRubio in an attempt to get their attention. Wild that you're solely blaming him because he should have planned for all this.

We'll just agree to disagree.
 

dpic73

Heisman
Jul 27, 2005
27,873
20,557
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I don't agree that he should have anticipated he wouldn't be able to fly out of Dubai and I wouldn't call what he did whining. He was desperate to find a way out and the hotline Rubio advised citizens to call gave them no help, so in his post you can see that he was tagging @usgov and @SecRubio in an attempt to get their attention. Wild that you're solely blaming him because he should have planned for all this.

We'll just agree to disagree.
Of course if you're a maga influencer, you'll have no trouble at all. Screw everyone else.

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Aardvark86

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Oct 12, 2021
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dpic73

Heisman
Jul 27, 2005
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obviously they planned ahead.
He should've planned for it

To travel by land between the UAE and Saudi Arabia, U.S. citizens must have a passport valid for at least six months, a pre-obtained Saudi e-Visa, and an International Driving Permit if driving. Land borders are open, but require careful planning, as rental vehicles often need special permits, and the journey requires registering with Saudi authorities.
https://travel.state.gov/content/tr...el-Country-Information-Pages/SaudiArabia.html

  • Airspace Status: Saudi airspace is under partial closure. While it remains a primary corridor for international flights bypassing closed zones in Iraq and Iran, certain areas (especially near the borders with Iraq and the Persian Gulf) are restricted due to military activity.
  • Flight Realities: Even though the airport is open, many flights are being cancelled, delayed, or rerouted by individual airlines due to safety risks and the closure of neighboring airspaces.
 

ANEW

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Jul 7, 2023
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You did a great job listing some things for people to think about.
However, you did not do a good job justifying this war. Nor did the administration. So its not really your fault and more the people in charge fault.
I reread my post just to remember what i had posted and i kinda sounded like a dick when i @'d you. That wasn't the reason i posted. My intent going in was to detail out the actions that Iranian regime has taken to maim and kill americans since the 1979 revolution. The most recent ayatolla was there at the beginning so he worked his way up to eventually run crazytown so he's been party to it all.

I don't think the initial messaging from the admin was good. I could say that about a number of other things that the amin has done as well, but that's another thing.

I can maybe make a guess as to the admin's justification from what i've heard from various admin officials and trump and i think they are getting it together, but i didn't do it so i can't speak for them definitively.

I support the action so I can tell you why I do. I believe 100% that given their history, they will continue to kill americans however they can. I believe that they export terrorism and unrest thoughout the region and beyond. I beleve Iran as it exists today is the single biggest impediment to peace throughout the region and the single biggest reason why we have to have the level of military presense that we have historically had in the reason. I agree with the policy of no nukes. I believe that them devloping even longer range ballistic missiles to include ICBMs is unacceptable. I believe that they will continue to disrupt oil tanker traffic when it suits them, as they have in the past. I belive they will never completely give up their nuke weapon progam or ballistic missile program, as they got back to it after our attack last year. I believe they may say they will, but they will find ways to cheat. I also believe it likely that we didn't destroy as much of their program last year as we said/thought we did. I believe that some sort of armed conflict with Iran would be inevitable in the future. I believe that even if we don't get a stable, democratic government immediately that after we neuter iran's military capabilities, that Israel and the other gulf states will be able to keep them in check without massive involvment by us.

Why now? I believe that conditions lined up for this to be the most favorable opportunity to solve or partially solve all the issues i listed above. I posted probably way up this thread or the other a list of reasons what i think are the factors uniquely lining up in favor of now that can't be assumed will happen any time soon. Not least of which the iranian regime is having to brutally supress internal dissent so they are vulerable internally to some extent and a large segment of the population ready for change.

The other reasons are that waiting could very well be much much worse. Iran was going full speed ahead producing cheap drones and cheap shorter range missiles (enough range to threaten the region) with production ramping up. The pace of that exceeds the pace that the US and others in the region could make systems / munitions to counter. At some point (and the admin is making the case that it would be soon) , Iran woudl have too many to counter and then could use that increase the price for taking action in the future, effectively providing top cover for their nuke and ICBM program. Imagine if Iran had 5x the number of missles/drones etc. and ICBMs and after that nukes?

Lastly i think we and israel had good penetration of the iranian leadership to support decapitation strikes (makes the military campaign easier) ... that can't be guaranteed to last forever.

So all that can be boiled down to saying, the best time to solve a problem is when it's easiest to solve. Now to me doesn't seem like a bad time.

And it goes without saying that now that we are where we are... we need to see it through.
 

PawPride

Heisman
Nov 28, 2004
52,967
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Can someone explain why with a damn near $1t/year defense budget we’re at the point where the pentagon is coming hat in hand to congress asking for another $50b? What in the world have we been spending all that money on all these years
 

baltimorened

All-Conference
May 29, 2001
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He should've planned for it

To travel by land between the UAE and Saudi Arabia, U.S. citizens must have a passport valid for at least six months, a pre-obtained Saudi e-Visa, and an International Driving Permit if driving. Land borders are open, but require careful planning, as rental vehicles often need special permits, and the journey requires registering with Saudi authorities.
https://travel.state.gov/content/tr...el-Country-Information-Pages/SaudiArabia.html

  • Airspace Status: Saudi airspace is under partial closure. While it remains a primary corridor for international flights bypassing closed zones in Iraq and Iran, certain areas (especially near the borders with Iraq and the Persian Gulf) are restricted due to military activity.
  • Flight Realities: Even though the airport is open, many flights are being cancelled, delayed, or rerouted by individual airlines due to safety risks and the closure of neighboring airspaces.
yea it's not as easy getting around in Saudi as it is in the US. Like I posted, I don't think anyone anticipated that the Iranian reaction would be to track all it's mideast neighbors. Still seems a little "off " to me. Why generate more enemies
 
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baltimorened

All-Conference
May 29, 2001
4,184
3,093
113
Can someone explain why with a damn near $1t/year defense budget we’re at the point where the pentagon is coming hat in hand to congress asking for another $50b? What in the world have we been spending all that money on all these years
you should look up the defense budget categories. Only about $150Billion or so goes into procurement. The rest is in personell, operations and readiness etc.
 
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PawPride

Heisman
Nov 28, 2004
52,967
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you should look up the defense budget categories. Only about $150Billion or so goes into procurement. The rest is in personell, operations and readiness etc.
Good call - just looked it up and AI said 17% goes into procurement.

Assuming 17%:
2024 - $149b
2023 - $144b
2022 - $146b
2021 - $137b
2020 - $133b

That's $709b over 5 years for procurement. Now I could see an argument for we're down low because we were selling old munitions to Ukraine for the last 4 years, but still you'd think they'd increase procurement over these last 4 years to offset that.
 

Hotshoe

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Feb 15, 2012
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As we should. I hope the Demos subpoena the crap out of Trump and his minions when they retake the House. Absolute scorched earth. Susan Rice was right on the money.
This shows exactly who you are. A one party person. As anti-American as it gets. Susan Rice is the scourge of America.
 
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