Bubbletology update:
Ironclad 1-bid leagues: 21
I'm moving the A-10 and the MAC to this side because of Dayton's loss to George Washington and Kent State's loss to Northern Illinois. Kent State is 0-3 in Q1 with no remaining opportunities, and now they have a Q4 loss. Even if they won out all the way to the MAC title game before losing, I don't think they'd get in. That'd be five losses. An analogue would be 2015 Murray State which went 25-4 but had no signature win and weren't even First Four Out. I'm finally making the call on the A-10 but I reserve the right to resurrect them if Saint Louis runs the table, but their 6-1 A-10 record has come almost entirely against the bottom of the league. Pepper in a loss to Dayton or VCU (both of whom they have to play twice still) and that won't be an at-large worthy resume. I also moved the A-Sun (Liberty) here because their resume is basically equivalent to Kent State's and if they take another loss to an A-Sun team, even in the conference tournament title game, I don't think they get in because their best win is Bradley and their second-best win is, uh, Bryant on a neutral?
21 bids
Possible 2-bid leagues: 3
This is the CAA (Charleston), C-USA (FAU), and WCC (Gonzaga/SMC). Charleston and FAU are still sitting on one loss and in position for a bid if they keep winning in the regular season. Nothing has changed in the WCC even if LMU's win over Gonzaga. LMU and Santa Clara are still out of the conversation with 4-3 conference records so that league is still locked in for two bids. I'll be conservative and allow for a bid thief here to call it five from this group.
5 bids
That leaves 42 up for grabs among the top eight conferences, which is unchanged from last week. Eyeballing it (2.5 basically means they’ll get either 2 or 3 bids):
AAC: 2.5 (Houston, Memphis, UCF in the mix)
The wrong team got the win over Houston. Memphis and UCF could both really use that to bolster their resume. UCF is on the downswing with consecutive losses to Tulane and USF, the latter a Q3 to go with an earlier Q4 loss this season, and now they have to face the Cougars who you have to assume are not going to drop two straight. Memphis on the other hand is chugging along just fine. Temple got the win over Houston but they're just 12-9 with a whopping six Q3/Q4 losses.
MWC: 4 (San Diego State, Utah State, Boise State, New Mexico, Nevada)
Bumping them up from 3.5 to 4 as the top five teams in this league kept it clean, the only losses among the group coming to another. Utah State is still the odd one out with two Q4 losses but they're #35 in the NET and have plenty of good chances left, starting tonight at San Diego State. The others have solidified their standing and four bids is looking way more likely than three at this point.
Pac-12: 3.5 (UCLA, Arizona, USC, Arizona State, Utah)
Arizona State failed to get a win as the LA schools came through Tempe, knocking them down to 6-3 in the league. Their resume is still better than the Trojans for now. Big potential for upheaval this week as ASU is on the road against the Oregon schools and Utah is in Washington to face the Huskies and Cougars. If they come through that at 4-0 I'll probably bump this to four bids next update.
Big East: 5 (UConn, Creighton, Providence, Marquette, Xavier)
Nothing new here. Seton Hall no-showed a game that would've propelled them onto the bubble and lost by 21 at home to Marquette. The Pirates probably still have the next-best shot outside the top five. Beat @Butler, @St. John's, and DePaul in the next three and that'll set up another huge home opportunity, this time against Creighton. Meanwhile St. John's lost at the Garden to Villanova and have to play Creighton in Omaha tonight. Win that to leapfrog SHU, but they'd still be bubble-adjacent at best.
ACC: 6 (Duke, Virginia, UNC, Miami, Clemson, Pitt, NC State, Wake Forest)
Thankfully Syracuse lost a terrible basketball game to North Carolina to keep them from joining this group. Wake Forest has a big three game stretch coming up: @Pitt, vs. NC State, @Duke. Two Q1 games and one Q2. Pittsburgh lost a bad one at home to Florida State and needs a bounceback tonight against the Deacs. Right now Pitt is the first team out at Bracket Matrix, so yeah, that's a big one. Six bids still feels right for this league as they've mostly maintained the firewall between the top and the bottom and not taken horrible losses.
Big 12: 6.5 (Kansas, Iowa State, Kansas State, Texas, TCU, Baylor, pick one of the bottom 4)
The eight bid dream is over and the seven bid light is starting to flicker. I'm considering 17-14 as the magic record to reach as I don't believe the committee will pick a 16-15 team no matter how strong the conference. Texas Tech (10-9) hosts West Virginia (11-8) tonight and it's basically impossible to see how the loser of that gets to 17 wins. And Texas Tech's not going to go winless in league play, right? Oklahoma State (11-9 right now) has an easy SEC Challenge draw with a home game against Ole Miss that's basically a must-win. West Virginia gets stuck playing Auburn, but at least that's at home. Also at home is Oklahoma (11-9), but they have to play the hottest team in the country in Alabama.
SEC: 6 (Tennessee, Alabama, Auburn, Arkansas, Missouri, Kentucky, Texas A&M)
Arkansas did indeed steady the ship with home wins over LSU and Mississippi State. The Bulldogs lose their "in the mix" status as they're 1-7 since an 11-0 start. Wanna get back on? Win at Alabama tonight. The two teams currently in the field per Bracket Matrix but closest to the cut line are Kentucky and Missouri and both have huge B12 Challenge home opportunities with Kansas and Iowa State respectively. Losses there don't really hurt the profile but a top-10 Q1 win would be a huge shot in the arm. Florida can also sneak into this mix with a road win at Kansas State. Six bids still feels right.
Big Ten: 8.5 (Everyone except Nebraska and Minnesota)
The Big Ten continues to Big Ten at extreme levels. The only teams on a winning streak right now are Purdue and Indiana. Purdue's won six straight and Indiana has three in a row. Nobody else is even at two. Second place and 13th place are separated by just three games, so we'll wait another week. Bracket Matrix currently has ten teams in the field, but three of them are Last Four In so that number will shrink as the losses mount.
Total: 42 bids
So I'd project two of the leagues projected at x.5 to go OVER and two to go UNDER.
