If we play as well as we played against England, then we have a great chance. If we play like we played against Wales, we have a poor chance.
My favorite three approaches to attacking a team that is playing a very compact defensive game include combinations of:
- patience with tons of drop and switches combined with probing passes into the midfield
- overloading numbers to a side or quadrant of the opponent's half
- death by a thousand passes (aka small-ball)
There is a lot of other stuff, but these are the basics, IMO.
We were trying the first one against Wales, but failed miserably. Mostly because of overly slow ball movement, imprecision in the probing passes, and lack of quality first touch by our midfielders. Our midfield was WAY better today against a much higher quality team.
When done right, that first approach, patience with switches, exhausts the opponent because it forces a compact defense to run from one side of the field to the other and back again as the ball is switched dozens and dozens of times. Make them do it a hundred times in the first half and they'll become worn out in the later stages of the second half. Do it wrong, like we did against Wales, and you wind up with possession without a purpose. We hold the ball a lot without ever really threatening. Exactly what the opponent choosing to play a super compact defense wants.
Attacking a compact defense is really not much different than attacking a team defending into your defensive third except you wind up with a much smaller area in which to work. Instead of two thirds of the field or so in which to work, you wind up with just half the field or less. So you need to be faster and more precise with ball movement because there's less available space and time.
Rapid and constant combination play becomes more critical, and overlaps or underlaps can be particularly deadly when done right as they are designed to force defenders to constantly make lesser-of-two-evils type choices when deciding to defend the first attacker or the overlapping/underlapping player. Don't confuse the overlapping runs our wing defenders make with combination play overlaps. The former is just about a player overlapping the midfielders to add numbers into the opponent's final third during the attack. That is a sort of brute force, but often effective, approach to creating a numbers-up situation and forcing the opponent to drop additional players - not super useful against a compact defense that's already dropping players back.
The latter is a type of combination play between two attacking players who are basically using small movements to try to force a first defender to choose between holding the first attacker in place or guarding the overlapping player's (the second attacker's) short curved runs. This presents the first and second defenders with a dilemma because they don't want the second attacker to roam free and receive a through ball, but they also don't want to leave the first attacker free to penetrate off the dribble.
While it's also a case of trying to create a numbers-up situation, it's a lot more transient and localized and can occur anywhere on the field while moving in any direction with the ball, versus when a defender makes an overlapping run up the sideline which is a field-sized thing all about moving forward. Done right, tactical overlaps unbalance the disciplined shape of the compact defense, which is a little bit like playing Jenga. You keep pulling at the pieces (the defenders) until you pull the right combination and the whole defense collapses (momentarily, but hopefully long enough to create a scoring chance).
As I said, though, all that actually applies to attacking any kind of defense. All the cues and responses are the same. It's just that it all has to happen much faster against a compact defense than against a defense that is spread out across two-thirds of the field.