OT: B10 expands/PAC B12 TBD

[rutgersguy1_rivals]

My thoughts about Cal and Stanford joining is: with Oregon and Washing in the fold making 4 West Coast programs adding those two would cut the expense of the 4 WC programs having to go to Midwest and eastern B1G stadiums for away games and having Midwest and eastern programs head west .
I think the B1G will make deals with regional TV stations to cover some of the West Coast games that won't be showing to a national audience , if their current TV rights deal allows that.

From the Forde article above:

A source familiar with the Big Ten thinking said the conference’s presidents are more interested in adding all four schools, while the league’s media partners are more interested in a two-member addition of Oregon and Washington. While one league source cautioned “nothing is there” in terms of an imminent move, a second source said that “a real proposal is going to take shape fast” regarding Oregon and Washington.

 

[Knight Shift]

FSU says to hold my AAU-flavored beer.

 

[Knight Shift]

https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/threads/is-something-about-to-go-down.263592/

 

[krup]

“While also keeping an eye on if any teams leave the ACC…”

Still will have to see it to believe that part but @JayDogSmooth should be happy to see that lol.

Jay shouldn’t be happy to see this rumor.

His argument is that FSU will get out soon because enough ACC schools have an SEC, B1G or B12 landing spot to vote to dissolve the conference.

If the B1G takes Oregon, Washington , California, and Stanford, and the B12 takes the other 3 four corners schools, if is hard to see enough places for ACC schools to land.

Fox and ESPN (especially) want to reduce the overall number of schools they are paying big money to. They won’t settle for just Oregon St and Wash St losing out.

 

[rutgersguy1_rivals]

Jay shouldn’t be happy to see this rumor.

His argument is that FSU will get out soon because enough ACC schools have an SEC, B1G or B12 landing spot to vote to dissolve the conference.

If the B1G takes Oregon, Washington , California, and Stanford, and the B12 takes the other 3 four corners schools, if is hard to see enough places for ACC schools to land.

Fox and ESPN (especially) want to reduce the overall number of schools they are paying big money to. They won’t settle for just Oregon St and Wash St losing out.

If anything, I don't think it would keep FSU out it would keep Cal and/or Stanford out.

If you see the quote from the Forde article, the networks want Oregon/Washington but the presidents want all 4. So I think FSU would make the cut for sure if they could get out cleanly but problem it's highly unlikely they would get out cleanly any time soon.

 

[bigmatt718]

If anything, I don't think it would keep FSU out it would keep Cal and/or Stanford out.

If you see the quote from the Forde article, the networks want Oregon/Washington but the presidents want all 4. So I think FSU would make the cut for sure if they could get out cleanly but problem it's highly unlikely they would get out cleanly any time soon.

Yeah. I think end game may be 24 teams in a decade once the ACC GOR code is cracked.

 

[MADHAT1]

From the Forde article above:

A source familiar with the Big Ten thinking said the conference’s presidents are more interested in adding all four schools, while the league’s media partners are more interested in a two-member addition of Oregon and Washington. While one league source cautioned “nothing is there” in terms of an imminent move, a second source said that “a real proposal is going to take shape fast” regarding Oregon and Washington.

Probably Oregon and Washington will be fast tracted, Cal & Stanford will be put on hold so the B1G can work out TV rights deals , with media partners permission, that brings in some revenue to blunt how much revenue sharing will be lessened by their entrance.
Also their wait for full share might be longer than the Ducks and Dogs timeline and beginning payout less, but still more than what they would get if stayed in PAC or another Conference.
The Big 12 might look at them and be willing to pay more to join.
But that might mean one or 2 of these three , ASU and Utah having to stay in PAC. .

My feelings are all 4 mentioned as B1G invites will come but on a two tier revenue sharing bases and long full share timeline.

Some ACC schools will be trying to break their GOR, but I doubt that will happen and Notre Dame will be happy the way they are now as long as the ACC stays together

 

[krup]

If anything, I don't think it would keep FSU out it would keep Cal and/or Stanford out.

If you see the quote from the Forde article, the networks want Oregon/Washington but the presidents want all 4. So I think FSU would make the cut for sure if they could get out cleanly but problem it's highly unlikely they would get out cleanly any time soon.

FSU finding a spot isn’t the problem. It is that eight schools need to have a spot for FSU to get out, and I don’t see it.

 

[patk89]

FSU would do very well in the B1G. Great spot for them if they can pull it off. Puts them in great position vs Florida and Miami.

 

[bigmatt718]

Probably Oregon and Washington will be fast tracted, Cal & Stanford will be put on hold so the B1G can work out TV rights deals , with media partners permission, that brings in some revenue to blunt how much revenue sharing will be lessened by their entrance.
Also their wait for full share might be longer than the Ducks and Dogs timeline and beginning payout less, but still more than what they would get if stayed in PAC or another Conference.
The Big 12 might look at them and be willing to pay more to join.
But that might mean one or 2 of these three , ASU and Utah having to stay in PAC. .

My feelings are all 4 mentioned as B1G invites will come but on a two tier revenue sharing bases and long full share timeline.

Some ACC schools will be trying to break their GOR, but I doubt that will happen and Notre Dame will be happy the way they are now as long as the ACC stays together

I think your timeline makes plausible sense. Oregon/Washington/Cal/Stanford get into the B1G in say 2026 with a higher pay than what the Pac-12 would've offered but still a lengthy buy in period for all 4 to avoid dilution of the payouts of the 14 B1G schools who are all bought in. Oregon/Washington will buy in faster than Cal/Stanford due to overall value in the B1G.

 

[rutgersguy1_rivals]

FSU finding a spot isn’t the problem. It is that eight schools need to have a spot for FSU to get out, and I don’t see it.

I don't put stock in that rumor either because I think it would take a supermajority not just a majority to dissolve or break anything.

Fighting the GOR in the courts probably has a better shot than thinking that many schools will leave or have spots to leave.

IMO, neither of these scenarios has a strong shot of happening any time soon, if at all.

 

[RUHEADHUNTER]

I don't put stock in that rumor either because I think it would take a supermajority not just a majority to dissolve or break anything.

Fighting the GOR in the courts probably has a better shot than thinking that many schools will leave or have spots to leave.

IMO, neither of these scenarios has a strong shot of happening any time soon, if at all.

Not sure how this works, but hypnotically....if they get 4 more schools from the Pac and then get Clemson and Florida State, they would increase content for television. Could they supplement the additions by getting more money from ESPN or Apple to kick in for a 4th or 5th tier programing??

 

[rutgersguy1_rivals]

Not sure how this works, but hypnotically....if they get 4 more schools from the Pac and then get Clemson and Florida State, they would increase content for television. Could they supplement the additions by getting more money from ESPN or Apple to kick in for a 4th or 5th tier programing??

Sure they can possibly get money out of new tv package(s). I've said that for awhile now with regards to how they can fund more additions. Friday night/Sat after dark windows are possibilities. Conference semifinal games in addition to the B10 champ game is another revenue generator. At the same time it doesn't mean it's bottomless pot of money and that anyone can be added. That's something that has to be figured out with the networks.

 

[krup]

Sure they can possibly get money out of new tv package(s). I've said that for awhile now with regards to how they can fund more additions. Friday night/Sat after dark windows are possibilities. Conference semifinal games in addition to the B10 champ game is another revenue generator. At the same time it doesn't mean it's bottomless pot of money and that anyone can be added. That's something that has to be figured out with the networks.

What has worked for them in the past (while doing the opposite has blown up in the face of the ACC) is not touching the existing contracts, so I expect a whole new package to be bid out for the new content.

 

[Ataylor1989x]

 

[NickRU714]

Only a few dopes think we got hosed with the B1G deal we signed. Everyone else understands.

I'm one of those "dopes".
How can anyone not agree RU got a terrible deal?
The Big Ten immediately got a revenue increase due to Rutgers inclusion but received zero benefit.
Our distributions were fixed while conference reveneue was increasing.

Both things can be true:
Rutgers would have been foolish to turn down the deal considering the alternatives.
It was a poorly designed busniess deal (especially considering how people talk about the Big Ten being about equality unlike the Texas/B12 setup).

If it was such a great deal, why didn't USC/UCLA get the same deal?
Are they generating more revenue for the conference than Rutgers did?

 

[Caliknight]

PAC and Acc. More schools than seats.

There are going to be a number of schools that get left out of the big show. My prediction:

1) BCU
2) Sarahcuse
3) WF
4) Washington St.
5) Utah
6) Oregon St.
7) Cal
8) Stanford

All will be relegated.

 

[Knight Shift]

PAC and Acc. More schools than seats.

There are going to be a number of schools that get left out of the big show. My prediction:

1) BCU
2) Sarahcuse
3) WF
4) Washington St.
5) Utah
6) Oregon St.
7) Cal
8) Stanford

All will be relegated.

Is that in order, with Cal and Stanford as being the last two in the "big show?"

Also, perhaps there could be three super-conferences, B1G, SEC, Big 12, those teams in the mix for B12?

 

[krup]

I'm one of those "dopes".
How can anyone not agree RU got a terrible deal?
The Big Ten immediately got a revenue increase due to Rutgers inclusion but received zero benefit.
Our distributions were fixed while conference reveneue was increasing.

Both things can be true:
Rutgers would have been foolish to turn down the deal considering the alternatives.
It was a poorly designed busniess deal (especially considering how people talk about the Big Ten being about equality unlike the Texas/B12 setup).

If it was such a great deal, why didn't USC/UCLA get the same deal?
Are they generating more revenue for the conference than Rutgers did?

There were two revenue streams for the B1G when Rutgers was added.

1- BTN carriage fee revenue, which Rutgers definitely increased by getting the BTN an increased fee in NJ and parts of NYC

2-the regular TV revenue, which did not go up one penny when Rutgers and Maryland were added.

Rutgers got a decreased share until the contracts in 2 were up and the Rutgers games were factored into the next TV deal.

USC and UCLA are both increasing stream 1 by getting more BTN revenue with CA being added, and increasing stream 2 because they were added at the time contracts were negotiated, not mid contract like RU and MD were. The USC And UCLA additions don’t cut into the incumbent members revenue like RU/MD did.

 

[cubuffsdoug_rivals]

Also it's possible not just ESPN after dark but maybe a few games thrown to ESPN+ too.

I'd expect that to be a cheaper package that might be affordable to ESPN and so they could be a fourth partner but we'll see.

I rather that 4th partner be Warner/TNT instead of ESPiN. ESPiN is a like pest that tries to take over once they infest your home. TNT could show the Western teams at 6 and 9 pm. You want an after-dark game, but not too late into the night.

 

[rutgersguy1_rivals]

I rather that 4th partner be Warner/TNT instead of ESPiN. ESPiN is a like pest that tries to take over once they infest your home. TNT could show the Western teams at 6 and 9 pm. You want an after-dark game, but not too late into the night.

Well it also depends on NBC and what kind of exclusivity they have for the Sat primetime window outside of maybe the BTN. Friday night or after dark wouldn’t interfere with that.

 

[bigmatt718]

I rather that 4th partner be Warner/TNT instead of ESPiN. ESPiN is a like pest that tries to take over once they infest your home. TNT could show the Western teams at 6 and 9 pm. You want an after-dark game, but not too late into the night.

TNT B1G After Dark sounds good to me.

 

[NickRU714]

There were two revenue streams for the B1G when Rutgers.

1- BTN carriage fee revenue, which Rutgers definitely increased by getting the BTN an increased fee in NJ and parts of NYC

2-the regular TV revenue, which did not go up one penny when Rutgers and Maryland were added.

Rutgers got a decreased share until the contracts in 2 were up and the Rutgers games were factored into the next TV deal.

USC and UCLA are both increasing stream 1 by getting more BTN revenue with CA being added, and increasing stream 2 because they were added at the time contracts were negotiated, not mid contract like RU and MD were. The USC And UCLA additions don’t cut into the incumbent members revenue like RU/MD did.

Do we know what the revenue numbers would have been without USC/UCLA and then with?
Suppose without it was approx $75m/year (I have no idea). You are proposing that adding them both would be worth at minimum $150m/year to the media contract. Perhaps that is the case and I missed those reports.

Wouldn’t the increased CA carriage fees be accomplished by one school? I wouldn’t allocate the benefit to both schools. That like adding Princeton along with Rutgers and giving Princeton full benefit of the carriage fees as well.

Rutgers didn’t receive an increased share until an arbitrary 7 year wait period.
When the new media contact increased revenue shares, we didn’t get any benefit I believe. We stayed with the same projected distribution set from the beginning.

 

[Caliknight]

Is that in order, with Cal and Stanford as being the last two in the "big show?"

Also, perhaps there could be three super-conferences, B1G, SEC, Big 12, those teams in the mix for B12?

It was in no order, but looking it, it seems about right. I'd swap Sarah for BCU. At least BCU has Boston you could sort of leverage even though they aren't a player there. At least it's something. Syracuse offers literally nothing. They are fvcked.

 

[rutgersguy1_rivals]

TNT B1G After Dark sounds good to me.

You assume that Turner would want after dark and I don’t know if they would.

 

[MADHAT1]

Do we know what the revenue numbers would have been without USC/UCLA and then with?
Suppose without it was approx $75m/year (I have no idea). You are proposing that adding them both would be worth at minimum $150m/year to the media contract. Perhaps that is the case and I missed those reports.

Rutgers didn’t receive an increased share until an arbitrary 7 year wait period.
When the new media contact increased revenue shares, we didn’t get any benefit I believe. We stayed with the same projected distribution set from the beginning.

I believe Rutgers entered getting AAC money first year then slightly increased every year after that until full share timeline reached.
Full share payment delayed becaise of loan payment deducted from revenue share being given

 

[BeantownKnight]

As many hoped, this will eventually mean the end of the NCAA.

The B1G and the SEC will, in an unchecked arms war over the next decade, gobble up many/most of the schools in the remaining conferences until those conferences are no longer able to support themselves. The B1G and SEC will govern themselves and each will either eventually crown their "conference" champion as the National Champion, or play one-another - if that is thought to be necessary - to determine the National Champ. You will have a B1G vs. SEC view of college athletics. If you are affiliated with one, you won't think the other necessary. And, of course, in no way would you think the NCAA is necessary. That will be for all of the schools that remain (incl. FCS, D2, and D3).

 

[cubuffsdoug_rivals]

There were two revenue streams for the B1G when Rutgers.

1- BTN carriage fee revenue, which Rutgers definitely increased by getting the BTN an increased fee in NJ and parts of NYC

2-the regular TV revenue, which did not go up one penny when Rutgers and Maryland were added.

Rutgers got a decreased share until the contracts in 2 were up and the Rutgers games were factored into the next TV deal.

USC and UCLA are both increasing stream 1 by getting more BTN revenue with CA being added, and increasing stream 2 because they were added at the time contracts were negotiated, not mid contract like RU and MD were. The USC And UCLA additions don’t cut into the incumbent members revenue like RU/MD did.

A lot of people miss that point. People tried to hold that against Rutgers and Maryland when they entered the B1G in the middle of the contract because there wasn't a bump in team money. Therefore, people claimed they didn't add value to the B1G. When the new media deal was signed, you saw a significant jump in the payout for all teams in the B1G. Finally, the value of Rutgers and Maryland was factored in. More than any of the haters could imagine. USC and UCLA were fortunate enough to join the B1G during the negotiation for a new media deal. Their added value was factored into the payout for each team.

 

[NickRU714]

I believe Rutgers entered getting AAC money first year then slightly increased every year after that until full share timeline reached.
Full share payment delayed becaise of loan payment deducted from revenue share being given

Yes. The annual increases were predetermined and weren't tied to any increase in overall conference distribution.

If distributions went up $1m or $100m for the next contract, our distribution was already set.

Technically, if conference distributions fell, we would have also stayed the same while everyone else lost money.
I highly doubt we would have been unscathed though.

The loan and payback is immaterial.
Our distributions pre-loan were fixed.

 

[krup]

As many hoped, this will eventually mean the end of the NCAA.

The B1G and the SEC will, in an unchecked arms war over the next decade, gobble up many/most of the schools in the remaining conferences until those conferences are no longer able to support themselves. The B1G and SEC will govern themselves and each will either eventually crown their "conference" champion as the National Champion, or play one-another - if that is thought to be necessary - to determine the National Champ. You will have a B1G vs. SEC view of college athletics. If you are affiliated with one, you won't think the other necessary. And, of course, in no way would you think the NCAA is necessary. That will be for all of the schools that remain (incl. FCS, D2, and D3).

There is going to be limit to how many teams find a home in the three conferences (SEC and B1G as top tier, B12 included but definitely a distant third).

ESPN for a while and Fox recently have understood that since the big conference revenue is increasing, the only way to cost some costs is to “relegate” some former power 5 schools by leaving them without a chair when the music stops

Oregon St and Washington St for sure. Probably 3 or 4 ACC teams at least.

 

[cubuffsdoug_rivals]

Well it also depends on NBC and what kind of exclusivity they have for the Sat primetime window outside of maybe the BTN. Friday night or after dark wouldn’t interfere with that.

Friday night is perfect for the West Coast teams. If NBC Saturday night game is 7:30 pm, how would the 9 pm Saturday night game have an impact? Drop the 6 pm game. Make the late game start at 9:30 pm. By then, you are into the third quarter for the NBC game.

TNT:
Friday night could be a tier-three game like Indiana at Stanford
Saturday night could be a little more exciting, like Wisconsin at Washington. It's not USC at Ohio State, but still entertaining.

 

[AdventureHasAName]

After Notre Dame, Stanford and Cal are the remaining prizes west of the Mississippi. Washington is okay, but Oregon is fool's gold. The goal should be branding the Big 10 as "power conference where academics matter" - that means Notre Dame, Stanford, Cal, North Carolina, Virginia.

 

[cubuffsdoug_rivals]

There is going to be limit to how many teams find a home in the three conferences (SEC and B1G as top tier, B12 included but definitely a distant third).

ESPN for a while and Fox recently have understood that since the big conference revenue is increasing, the only way to cost some costs is to “relegate” some former power 5 schools by leaving them without a chair when the music stops

Oregon St and Washington St for sure. Probably 3 or 4 ACC teams at least.

Make sure BC, Syracuse, Pitt, and Louisville are part of that group that gets left out.

 

[bigmatt718]

Make sure BC, Syracuse, Pitt, and Louisville are part of that group that gets left out.

I think Pitt and Louisville find their way into the Big 12 at some point. BC and Cuse are f**ked, however.

 

[Mr. Magoo1]

I’d anything, I think the B1G overpaid for USC and UCLA. There should have been a buy in period for them.

They (especially USC) had leverage. The SEC could have swooped them up if the B1G didn’t.

 

[bigmatt718]

They (especially USC) had leverage. The SEC could have swooped them up if the B1G didn’t.

Exactly. The 4 Pac-12 targets this time around do not.

 

[cubuffsdoug_rivals]

I think Pitt and Louisville find their way into the Big 12 at some point. BC and Cuse are f**ked, however.

The Big 12 wants quality and not quantity.
There must be a few MWC teams that bring similar value to the Big 12, like San Diego St., UNLV, or Colorado St.

 

[cubuffsdoug_rivals]

They (especially USC) had leverage. The SEC could have swooped them up if the B1G didn’t.

I don't think the B1G overpaid for UCLA and USC. Their value was considered by the former B1G commissioner long before those two teams decided to jump the Pac-12 ship.

USC might have thought they had leverage by playing the B1G against the SEC, but the SEC doesn't have multiple networks paying them. Each network is paying a percentage of the $70 million. ESPN is footing the entire bill for each SEC team to the tune of $65 million, which is why Disney is shopping ESPN because the ROI may not be worth it. Disney is tightening the belt.

 

[JayDogSmooth]

“While also keeping an eye on if any teams leave the ACC…”

Still will have to see it to believe that part but @JayDogSmooth should be happy to see that lol.

I like I like

 

[JayDogSmooth]

FSU says to hold my AAU-flavored beer.

TJ’s right