OT: COVID-19 news. Out of over 3000 positive tests in prison
- Thread starter dinglefritz
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More evidence comes in....lockdowns did not work. Read this guy's posts for the last two weeks....it's eye opening. Of particular note, overall deaths in like 45 of 50 states are normal. Two of the 5, NY and NJ, made terrible policy decisions forcing nursing homes to take positive covid patients.
Lockdowns are ridiculous because you can't really lock down the whole population anyway. You force people to sit in cramped public housing and apartment complexes and not get any excercise or sunlight. There has to be a very high percentage of Vitamin D deficient people locked up in New York City right now. A PHD chemist friend of mine plotted on a graph early in this deal hours of sunlight, Vitamin D levels in humans and the death rate from seasonal influenza. The inverse relationship hours of sunlight and Vitamin D blood levels versus influenza deaths is pretty striking. I'm not sure where he found the data but he's a science wonk.
Keeping people inside when outside is safer.
Can get alcohol and pot, cant go to the dentist or have regular surgeries.
Yeah, I'm starting to think this isnt about public health.
Ironically I post about the information my friend showed me then I think I'll go Google it. There's multiple articles now linking an increased severity of COVID-19 infections with Vitamin D deficiency. There is a huge problem especially in urban areas with Vitamin D deficiency in adults.
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Which may account for why more social distancing and staying at home has led to more deaths. Most striking example is KY vs TN. Two states, right next to each other. TN shut down 5 days after KY, has a higher population density, has 2.4 more million people and fewer deaths.
Sad part is, the active cases are only the ones we know are over.
But, since many states arent following up, theres thirty percent or more that have recovered that arent counted, but still regarded as active cases.
Canada, 40% recovered, USA,15% recovered. So, since the world average is around 34% recovered, and Canadas timeline and medical resources are similar to ours, those active case are likely over 30% too high.
But, since many states arent following up, theres thirty percent or more that have recovered that arent counted, but still regarded as active cases.
Canada, 40% recovered, USA,15% recovered. So, since the world average is around 34% recovered, and Canadas timeline and medical resources are similar to ours, those active case are likely over 30% too high.
They were deadlier so far.
They had higher death rates.
Some were as infectious, most weren't.
Just going off what I remember.
Very nice write upSmokin
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The virus loading makes sense in that being new, having more virus immediately, there are no defenses.
Instead of building to uninfected areas, its already there unimpeded.
I see parts of their reinfection comments with no evidence, and no comments on the history of prior reactions in humans from earlier corona viruses.
Getting reinfected shouldn't be seen as having the same severity as getting it the first time.
History shows that's not how it goes, yet it could.
Yes, as I read, I became somewhat disappointed.
The common flu could mutate into a monstrous killer too.
Not middle of the road enough for my liking.
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I am as sciency as it gets but the original lockdown was unprecedented in American history and was only done because we were caught "off guard". There is little talk right now about the medical infrastructure being overwhelmed, and actually the opposite has happened. Viruses have a way of shutting things down organically and if you think about "opening up" what does that mean? Sit in services aren't going to see anybody...nobody is going to go to movies, and people aint traveling. All it takes is one acquaintance getting sick and and you completely shut your life down...and...although the virus is prevalent it isn't epidemic everywhere...schools aren't opening, sports aren't happening...the loosening is mostly a political move from red states..partially so they don't have to give handouts to businesses that are failing as people have the "choice" to go out now. The lockdown wasn't being enforced by law enforcement...parks had signs up but people still congregate and others call them idiots. America is known for idiots historically...we aren't a western society, we are a wild western society historically. Lets live through that.
The 1918 pandemic killed people until 1957...viruses are dangerous until every single human has immunity...getting the R0 value below 1 will kill an epidemic or pandemic but it will still likely be endemic. A disciplined and educated society could work coronavirus out of its daily life...but according to the 2k that die every day we aren't that.
Subways are like roads in nebraska...how can essential workers get to work if all of the roads are shut down? People don't have cars in a concrete jungle like New York...the distance required to walk is too far...and subways traverse freeways that are unwalkable.
All they had to do was like they are doing now, shut down for 2 hours to clean. It’s basic common sense and it took 7 weeks!!! With the amount of people using subway one could argue it “seeded” this whole mess.
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Thats why we kind of need to dismiss NYC as an outlier when we look at the national numbers. It has a very unique situation that basically nowhere else in the country is exposed to.
Some sciency stuff here, what Ive been pounding my drum to
Scientists likely underestimated the "number of asymptomatic cases" of the novel coronavirus, Dr. Deborah Birx said Saturday night.
"I think we're learning every day about the virus and how it interacts with us as human hosts," Birx, the White House coronavirus response coordinator, said during an appearance on Fox News' "Justice with Judge Jeanine."
"And that's been very important, to constantly be triangulating data," she added. "I think we underestimated, very early on, the number of asymptomatic cases. And I think we're really beginning to understand there are people that get infected -- that those symptoms are so low-grade that they don't even know that they're infected.
https://www.foxnews.com/media/dr-bi...gh-risk-for-coronavirus-remains-very-critical
NYC is six times infection rate or more than ny state.
Tip of the iceberg to true infection numbers.
Nyc has over eight million, if 25% have been infected, thats over two million right there.
Why arent they showing up anywheres? Because they didnt get sick, they dont count?
Those who tested that were asymptomatic, they know theyve been tested positive, where's the stories of reinfections?
We have multimillions of asymptomatic in this country right now.
Scientists likely underestimated the "number of asymptomatic cases" of the novel coronavirus, Dr. Deborah Birx said Saturday night.
"I think we're learning every day about the virus and how it interacts with us as human hosts," Birx, the White House coronavirus response coordinator, said during an appearance on Fox News' "Justice with Judge Jeanine."
"And that's been very important, to constantly be triangulating data," she added. "I think we underestimated, very early on, the number of asymptomatic cases. And I think we're really beginning to understand there are people that get infected -- that those symptoms are so low-grade that they don't even know that they're infected.
https://www.foxnews.com/media/dr-bi...gh-risk-for-coronavirus-remains-very-critical
NYC is six times infection rate or more than ny state.
Tip of the iceberg to true infection numbers.
Nyc has over eight million, if 25% have been infected, thats over two million right there.
Why arent they showing up anywheres? Because they didnt get sick, they dont count?
Those who tested that were asymptomatic, they know theyve been tested positive, where's the stories of reinfections?
We have multimillions of asymptomatic in this country right now.
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Data as of May 1, 2020
Jurisdiction of Occurrence COVID-19 Deaths (U07.1)1 Deaths from All Causes Percent of Expected Deaths2 Pneumonia Deaths
(J12.0–J18.9)3 Deaths with Pneumonia and COVID-19
(J12.0–J18.9 and U07.1)3 Influenza Deaths
(J09–J11)4
United States wuhan37,308 total deaths719,438 pct 97
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
These are confirmed deaths, sciency stuff
I have to ask, is the common flu only confirmed deaths numbers too?
Jurisdiction of Occurrence COVID-19 Deaths (U07.1)1 Deaths from All Causes Percent of Expected Deaths2 Pneumonia Deaths
(J12.0–J18.9)3 Deaths with Pneumonia and COVID-19
(J12.0–J18.9 and U07.1)3 Influenza Deaths
(J09–J11)4
United States wuhan37,308 total deaths719,438 pct 97
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
These are confirmed deaths, sciency stuff
I have to ask, is the common flu only confirmed deaths numbers too?
Small but very granulated sample size, because it was so early, but also more low hanging fruit.
Sciency stuff at its best
https://rsalzer.github.io/COVID_19_...UDVgrMz3PT4jeafiEi7ltD7vtNTm_aw_uw0z9pXa0P_JU
Broken down by age
Sciency stuff at its best
https://rsalzer.github.io/COVID_19_...UDVgrMz3PT4jeafiEi7ltD7vtNTm_aw_uw0z9pXa0P_JU
Broken down by age
There is little data that indicts surface contamination as a major driver of infections, there is a mountain of data that says sharing respiratory space is major driver of infection. Our case studies on infectious events show that 1 or 2 people can infect 80% of large group in a single meeting if talking and singing is involved. I am sure shutting down subways for the city that never sleeps is an easy thing to do
The good news is that we'll likely have a vaccine before the holidays. The only question will be is how widespread will it be available and will everybody be willing to take it to wipe this strain off the face of the earth. I would guess not on either point. I've said from the beginning that it will likely become routine to get your CV vaccine at the same time you get your annual flu vaccine.
As with getting on an airplane, I think one has to assume if you get on a train that your'e going to get exposed.There is little data that indicts surface contamination as a major driver of infections, there is a mountain of data that says sharing respiratory space is major driver of infection. Our case studies on infectious events show that 1 or 2 people can infect 80% of large group in a single meeting if talking and singing is involved. I am sure shutting down subways for the city that never sleeps is an easy thing to do
Everyone,essential workers got passes.
Shut the subways down only for them, clean the crap outta them, work coordinating schedules just for them.
Make uber and cabs essential, the non essentials get their rides this way.
It slows non essential travel,shortens it.
Just one idea that could have saved lives.
Shut the subways down only for them, clean the crap outta them, work coordinating schedules just for them.
Make uber and cabs essential, the non essentials get their rides this way.
It slows non essential travel,shortens it.
Just one idea that could have saved lives.
I'd like to know why you think that. I haven't seen any evidence that the original timeline, which was already super sped-up, of 12-18 months is not valid. I've seen the one group at Oxford that is going ahead with trials even though its riskier, but that's it.
I just hope for the love of god some miracle therapeutic comes out soon so football season can begin. I read about some drug (oral pill that causes mutation of virus) that is supposedly kickass but just now being tested on humans and starting clinical trials- no name just—- EID-2801, feel free to dig deeper on this therapeutic
The 538 Podcast just had a good episode with a professor from Johns Hopkins that talks about "the next phases" of this.
- We're going to see uneven but destructive upticks, due to easing restrictions well before we should.
- Phase 2 will be some opening, but with severe restrictions, people using masks, and if we're really fortunate, the eventual introduction of therapeutic treatments that can make the disease less severe. That is basically going to start happening now-ish.
- Phase 3 is we get the vaccine out and reach our herd-immunity levels, making this current crisis come to an end. This is a year away, maybe more.
- Phase 4 is planning for the next pandemic.
I’m trying in earnest not to buy anything made in the PRC. I have not walked into a Chinamart since the Red Chinese started WWIII. F* ‘em ! GDC’s!
My impression of the vaccine situation is the process is slow because our production investment is relatively low and CDC and FDA play a risk/reward game where rushing a flu vaccine makes no sense because it ultimately isn't that necessary or effective...most people think about the flu about 10 days out of the year. If the economy or "important lives" are in trouble then the risk/reward calculation changes. #1 make sure it is safe or at least as safe as cigarettes, alcohol, or other horrible things that americans ingest on a daily basis. #2 make sure it produces antibodies...this is easy to do and quick...#3 try to run a randomize test with a placebo and experimental group in a region where we can somewhat predict viral spread...hard to do and takes a long time...this may go "warp speed". I am not worried...most people in our country are so stupid, including myself, what is the worse thing that can happen...we are already zombies who consume everything of value around us and produce nothing in return...we sit in front of screens and drool until something triggers a base animal desire whether it is anger or lust. We had a chance as a society to slow down and begin to think about our place in the world, our priorities, our economy, the unsustainability of our current reality. Yet we found that american families can't be tied up together without dad beating everybody, drinking or smoking themselves to death...that 2-3k american lives being vaporized a day is an acceptable total as long as it is the right lives. We can only blame china...we lose nearly as many people in 1 day as china has lost in the entire episode...I am embarrassed at myself for expecting more...
You mentioned something intriguing. Pick an area where we know the spread.
Georgia, Atlanta area, there was a story about going door to door testing people to actually monitor the spread of the virus, a certain area, no others allowed.
Its testing like this that will likely open use of a vaccine.
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