OT: Moderate to Significant Snowfall Incoming for Late Sat through Sunday Morning (12/14)

RU848789

Heisman
Jul 27, 2001
64,486
43,595
113
As of 9 am we have 5.7" otg at 31F and it looks like we'll hit 6"with another half hour of decent snowfall remaining and then some lighter snow after that. Starting to see a little wind bringing diem mini snow avalanches from the trees lol. Here's a pic.

1765722562328.png
 

koleszar

Heisman
Jan 1, 2010
36,232
56,547
113
It's still coming down pretty good here in Howell already at 5"+. The christening of the Ariens will be today. This should be a fun experience as my tutorial on use was over 2 yrs ago. I'll let you all know how much sh*t I fv*k up, I'm real good at that.
 
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RULoyal

Heisman
Jul 28, 2001
15,045
17,864
113
It's still coming down pretty good here in Howell already at 5"+. The christening of the Ariens will be today. This should be a fun experience as my tutorial on use was over 2 yrs ago. I'll let you all know how much sh*t I fv*k up, I'm real good at that.
 
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Postman_1

Heisman
Mar 12, 2017
7,539
12,253
113
As of 9 am we have 5.7" otg at 31F and it looks like we'll hit 6"with another half hour of decent snowfall remaining and then some lighter snow after that. Starting to see a little wind bringing diem mini snow avalanches from the trees lol. Here's a pic.

View attachment 1073668
I couldn't even walk on the sidewalks when I went for my walk because some trees were hanging so low.
How do they get accurate measurements with all the compaction that happens?
 

koleszar

Heisman
Jan 1, 2010
36,232
56,547
113
At least 6" and still coming down in Tinton Falls. Looks pretty though.
You, my wife and our company from England (most snow they've ever seen) all think the same. Me, I just can't help but think, man that's a sh*t ton of work. I have to plow a football field long driveway, my shop, then snow blow all the barns and chicken coop out. The added bonus, the house, as I have contractors coming on Monday to start siding. Yay, me.
 
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RU848789

Heisman
Jul 27, 2001
64,486
43,595
113
As of 10 am we had 6.3" and then I did my 3rd shovel (so much easier in batches, lol) and as of 10:45 am with the snow winding down we have 6.6"; could get another 0.1" or so based on radar. Huge overperformer from my 5" guesstimate and the 4.5" NWS forecast (and some media forecasts for only 1-3" for our town).

It's so pretty out there - great to finally have a decent snowstorm that was all snow and at/below 32F so it all accumulated. Biggest snowfall since 11.25" on 2/17/24 that was a freak megaband storm; our last "regular" storm with more snow was 7.5" on 1/29/22. Winds are about to pick up and it's going to get quite cold with lows in the mid-teens and it won't get above 32F until Wednesday, so shovel before sunset if you can as the snow was wetter than expected and will freeze solid later.
 

RU848789

Heisman
Jul 27, 2001
64,486
43,595
113
I couldn't even walk on the sidewalks when I went for my walk because some trees were hanging so low.
How do they get accurate measurements with all the compaction that happens?
Compaction happens and it's just part of the measurement, although one is supposed to measure in an open area away from trees/buildings. One is also allowed to clear the snowboard every 6 hours, which reduces compaction a bit; the other thing that is recommended is to measure as close as possible to the end of the snow, before additional compaction occurs. For a snow like this that's fairly wet, I've see 10-20% compaction in a few hours after the snow ends.
 
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RU848789

Heisman
Jul 27, 2001
64,486
43,595
113
As of 10 am we had 6.3" and then I did my 3rd shovel (so much easier in batches, lol) and as of 10:45 am with the snow winding down we have 6.6"; could get another 0.1" or so based on radar. Huge overperformer from my 5" guesstimate and the 4.5" NWS forecast (and some media forecasts for only 1-3" for our town).

It's so pretty out there - great to finally have a decent snowstorm that was all snow and at/below 32F so it all accumulated. Biggest snowfall since 11.25" on 2/17/24 that was a freak megaband storm; our last "regular" storm with more snow was 7.5" on 1/29/22. Winds are about to pick up and it's going to get quite cold with lows in the mid-teens and it won't get above 32F until Wednesday, so shovel before sunset if you can as the snow was wetter than expected and will freeze solid later.
Final number was 6.7" as we tacked another 0.1" after I was done shoveling. Lots of reports of 5-8" almost everywhere in NJ, eastern PA, and LI, but only 3-5" in much of NYC (heat island?).
 

Postman_1

Heisman
Mar 12, 2017
7,539
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The streak is over. The snow blower was used. Did my house and the neighbors sidewalk on each side of me. Also used my snow rake on my roof out back were I had ice dams before. I cant use the rake on the front of my house because of the Christmas lights. Hopefully no issues there.
Time to relax and have a Troegs Mad Elf
 
Jun 30, 2025
9
5
3
Just cleaned off the car here in South Wall. Tale of the tape measure on the roof was 9". Glad I cleaned off the driveway of about 3-4" at 8:00 AM. That was wet and heavy. The stuff that fell after that was light and fluffy.
 
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Knight Shift

Heisman
May 19, 2011
86,707
84,255
113
South wall here too. At least 5" on the ground and snowing steadily. Solidly in that yellow patch in the forecast map.
Went out for a fire call 5:30, then multiple calls for downed wires (all cable), got back home around 11 a.m. ,was still snowing and measured 7". Noticed at 5:30, snow was only about about 3-4" estimated, it seemed heavier at the border of Wall/Howell.

Storm overperformed. No bust.
 

kupuna133

All-American
Jul 13, 2015
6,230
6,935
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Went out for a fire call 5:30, then multiple calls for downed wires (all cable), got back home around 11 a.m. ,was still snowing and measured 7". Noticed at 5:30, snow was only about about 3-4" estimated, it seemed heavier at the border of Wall/Howell.

Storm overperformed. No bust.
Thanks for the assistance. Heard lots of sirens. Went to the beach chapel for church at 10 and looked like there were some wires down off of Main st and 71.

have about 7 or so inches also. Suns at and things are already melting.
 
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bac2therac

Hall of Famer
Jul 30, 2001
240,319
170,142
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Went out for a fire call 5:30, then multiple calls for downed wires (all cable), got back home around 11 a.m. ,was still snowing and measured 7". Noticed at 5:30, snow was only about about 3-4" estimated, it seemed heavier at the border of Wall/Howell.

Storm overperformed. No bust.
Well that means the mets busted but in the wrong direction
 

RU848789

Heisman
Jul 27, 2001
64,486
43,595
113
Haven't seen actual snowfall maps up yet, but the NWS did very well on this storm, IMO, with the exception of areas N of 78 in PA/NJ and N of NYC in NY getting significantly more than expected, whereas several local media sources did much worse, especially for areas south of 78 and along the 95 corridor, where they had forecasts of 1-3" (channel 7, in particular, who didn't upgrade their forecast for these areas until 6 am this morning).

On another note, I know some people bust my balls about the Metuchen snowglobe, joking that I inflate my snowfall reports (actually not true, but I can live with ball busting), but if you want to see a grossly overstated snowfall report, just look below, as someone else in Metuchen reported 8.7" vs. my report of 6.7" (not on their list). There's simply no way that's right, as it's an outlier vs. all other county reports (especially when, generally, more snow fell in southern Middlesex than northern) and it's a huge outlier vs. the nearby Edison reports (6.6" and 5.6") and my report of 6.7". Even when I measured on grass, the most I saw was about 7.4", but one isn't supposed to measure on grass, as it inflates those measurements.

...Middlesex County...
Metuchen 8.7 in 0945 AM 12/14 Public
Plainsboro Township 8.0 in 1100 AM 12/14 Public
Cranbury 7.3 in 1045 AM 12/14 Trained Spotter
East Brunswick Twp 7.0 in 1045 AM 12/14 COCORAHS
Edison 6.6 in 1045 AM 12/14 Newspaper
North Brunswick Twp 1.5 W 6.6 in 0426 PM 12/14 COCORAHS
Parlin 6.4 in 0100 PM 12/14 Trained Spotter
East Brunswick 6.2 in 1100 AM 12/14 Trained Spotter
Sayreville 6.0 in 1135 AM 12/14 Public
South River 5.8 in 1119 AM 12/14 Trained Spotter
Edison 5.6 in 1145 AM 12/14 Trained Spotter
 

Sweet Pea's Corner

All-American
Sep 10, 2001
17,217
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Haven't seen actual snowfall maps up yet, but the NWS did very well on this storm, IMO, with the exception of areas N of 78 in PA/NJ and N of NYC in NY getting significantly more than expected, whereas several local media sources did much worse, especially for areas south of 78 and along the 95 corridor, where they had forecasts of 1-3" (channel 7, in particular, who didn't upgrade their forecast for these areas until 6 am this morning).

On another note, I know some people bust my balls about the Metuchen snowglobe, joking that I inflate my snowfall reports (actually not true, but I can live with ball busting), but if you want to see a grossly overstated snowfall report, just look below, as someone else in Metuchen reported 8.7" vs. my report of 6.7" (not on their list). There's simply no way that's right, as it's an outlier vs. all other county reports (especially when, generally, more snow fell in southern Middlesex than northern) and it's a huge outlier vs. the nearby Edison reports (6.6" and 5.6") and my report of 6.7". Even when I measured on grass, the most I saw was about 7.4", but one isn't supposed to measure on grass, as it inflates those measurements.

...Middlesex County...
Metuchen 8.7 in 0945 AM 12/14 Public
Plainsboro Township 8.0 in 1100 AM 12/14 Public
Cranbury 7.3 in 1045 AM 12/14 Trained Spotter
East Brunswick Twp 7.0 in 1045 AM 12/14 COCORAHS
Edison 6.6 in 1045 AM 12/14 Newspaper
North Brunswick Twp 1.5 W 6.6 in 0426 PM 12/14 COCORAHS
Parlin 6.4 in 0100 PM 12/14 Trained Spotter
East Brunswick 6.2 in 1100 AM 12/14 Trained Spotter
Sayreville 6.0 in 1135 AM 12/14 Public
South River 5.8 in 1119 AM 12/14 Trained Spotter
Edison 5.6 in 1145 AM 12/14 Trained Spotter
Why North Brunswick only show 1.5 ? How can they take this kind of info?
 

RU848789

Heisman
Jul 27, 2001
64,486
43,595
113
Why North Brunswick only show 1.5 ? How can they take this kind of info?
The way they type it can be confusing - the location is 1.5 miles west of NoBr and the amount is 6.6 inches. They do leave in way too many partial reports, though, from when the storm is obviously not over yet - I deleted those.

North Brunswick Twp 1.5 W 6.6 in 0426 PM 12/14 COCORAHS
 

RU848789

Heisman
Jul 27, 2001
64,486
43,595
113
Haven't seen actual snowfall maps up yet, but the NWS did very well on this storm, IMO, with the exception of areas N of 78 in PA/NJ and N of NYC in NY getting significantly more than expected, whereas several local media sources did much worse, especially for areas south of 78 and along the 95 corridor, where they had forecasts of 1-3" (channel 7, in particular, who didn't upgrade their forecast for these areas until 6 am this morning).

Below is the actual snowfall map for the region and the final NWS snowfall map from about 5 pm (time stamp says 10 pm, but that's just the one I grabbed at the time). IMO, that's a pretty good forecast, as I said in the quoted post above. It had the maximum amounts along 95 and in south/central interior NJ and eastern LI right (even if a bit under-forecast) and had lesser amounts for far SENJ right, but was a fair amount under for areas N of 78 and especially for Sussex/Poconos/Hudson Valley, but they at least had 2-4" amounts for those areas unlike many other forecasters who had them around 1" or so. In the big picture, the take home message was a moderate (2-4" for me) to perhaps significant (4-8" for me) snowstorm for most of the region and that's what we got.

1765824298584.png

1765824277162.png
 
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LeapinLou

All-American
Jul 24, 2001
12,743
5,994
113
So, I see "he" showed. Hopefully you made it and enjoyed the 3 song performance!!!
yes - amazing show from start to finish and Bruce showing up was quite a thrill.

He actually did 4 songs
- I don't want to go home (A Southside Johnnie staple that was written by Steve VanZandt)
- 10th Ave Freezout
- Merry Christmas Baby
- Santa Claus is coming to Town

Crazy thing - about 90 seconds after Bruce came on stage, the fire alarm went off. The show was delayed about 10 minutes. I was scared to death that they were going to end the show and clear the building. After all the kicks in the nuts I've taken with Rutgers sports this Fall, that would have been quite the cherry on top.