OT: PAC/ACC merger?
- Thread starter Retired711
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Isn't he a tad late? After all the animals have left, he's trying to close the barn door.
It's a good thing he waited this long before revealing.
Imagine if the schools new the projections before USC,UCLA left
& Then if they new projections before Colorado left....
Maybe he can show the final projections in cents so the number looks big like SEC/B1G.
Does he finish the whole presentation before some ADs shout "were out"
Imagine if the schools new the projections before USC,UCLA left
& Then if they new projections before Colorado left....
Maybe he can show the final projections in cents so the number looks big like SEC/B1G.
Does he finish the whole presentation before some ADs shout "were out"
After Colorado, I wouldn’t be surprised if the other PAC presidents put pressure on him to finally come up with hard numbers and exposure information.Isn't he a tad late? After all the animals have left, he's trying to close the barn door.
He was stringing out and that was probably his only play, hoping to lock schools in after a date it might be too late to leave for next year.
I'm sure backdoor channels were being used hot and heavy by PAC members
to the B1G and Vitamin Conference looking for a place to land if the PAC settled for a G-5 type TV rights deal.
I feel with Colorado gone , Utah,UofA &ASU HAVE THE b-12 on speed dial to be used if they don't like the deal. Kliavkoff finally presents
Washington and Oregon will already have reps at B1G headquarters asking for an invite
Stanford and Cal will wait, knowing the B1G will be raiding for more if they take Oregon and Washington because they represent total West Coast AND California dominance if they go B1G.
The Pac 12's Hail Mary to stay alive as a conference. My guess is that the ball hits the turf and the clock hits triple zeroes.
Rumors are that the linear TV element of the deal he will present is minimal, and that there are escalator clauses (revenue isn’t fully guaranteed).
If that is the case, at least Arizona announces a B12 move by the end of the week.
If that is the case, at least Arizona announces a B12 move by the end of the week.
Pac-12 is DOA if that's true. Arizona will be gone by Friday and Utah/ASU may follow them right out the door to the Big 12.
From Thamel’s article:
Arizona has been at the forefront for a potential move to the Big 12, as it had the most extensive talks with the league prior to the Colorado departure. A move by Arizona to the Big 12 would significantly weaken the Pac-12, putting an unstable league on the brink. And no one realizes this more than Robbins.
"He knows the gravity," said a person familiar with Robbins' thinking. "He does not want to be the one to break apart the Pac-12."
That's why sources say Arizona, Arizona State and Utah -- the Pac-12's remaining three of the so-called Four Corner schools -- are expected to lump their futures together.
As another industry source pointed out: "I don't see any of them having the fortitude to break up the Pac-12 themselves. They'll break as three. It's either going to be all three leave, or none leave."
Will they stay? Will they go?
Was listening to a Thamel pod and he was predicting (NOT news he heard from any sources) that Utah, Arizona, ASU would end up going to the B12.
Thamel also mentioned the FSU/Clemson stuff and how it's not happening despite what rumors you might see online.
Other rumors online have GK's tv deal putting numbers around 20M or so. I actually think the PAC teams might reluctantly accept the 10M deficit vs the B12 but I think the exposure problems and lack of linear tv will be the straw that breaks the PAC's back. Money deficit AND exposure deficit is probably a bridge too far.
I figured Warner/TNT would toss its hat into the ring. They kicked the tires and checked under the B1G and Big 12 hood but weren't even considered a serious contender. Clearly, they want some action in sports. They do an excellent job with NBA and NHL coverage. They may overpay to get a piece of the Pac-12. It probably won't be the money the other Power 4 conferences are getting, but likely more than what they were getting with the old Pac-12 media deal. I suspect the Pac-12 will play earlier games like they did during the Covid season. They had some strong ratings with noon and 3:30 games.
I know a ways back PAC games used to come on the Turner networks. I don't remember though if they were primetime or after dark or both.
Sounds like Apple’s MLS deal. Also said it could surpass the B12 deal if they were to get enough subscriptions.
That's a big IF relying on subscriptions from a conference void of stud schools to attract viewers.
I don’t think MLS was doing great in subscriptions until maybe Messi came on board.
There is no Messi coming to the PAC. I’d be surprised if they signed up enough subscriptions. I’m guessing it an add on to Apple TV+ not something that comes with the subscription. That’s two hurdles to go over. Save the die hards, I don’t know that they would get a lot of subscribers. It would kind of like the PAC network.
Edit: I suppose Apple could have subleasing deal on a more widely distributed channel that could help the PAC a little on exposure.
if is right.
If subscriptions are low the programs that would be leaving the PAC joining the B-12 ( if accepted) might see their payout drop from the approx $30mil+ to far less ($20 mil??)
The PAC will have to sell how subscription base payouts will be much better once they become the norm
I think subscription-based payouts for other Power 5 conferences will be a hard sell. I think there will be future deals where subscription payout is a part of the larger media deals we are used to seeing.
I think they could deal with the 10M revenue gap but I think exposure is the biggest issue. They’d drop off the face of the map, as is the time difference always hurts them.
I mentioned above it’s possible for sublicense deals to widely distributed networks but that’s an if and also how many games is a question.
Money alone I think maybe they could deal with but money and exposure could be too much. McMurphy brought up a good point too about planning AD budgets and having revenue somewhat in flux from year to year.
I’d be pretty leery of depending on hitting numbers controlled by the entity who saves money if you don’t hit those numbers.
It’s kind of like people not making any money because Hollywood movies that grossed $500 million are somehow shown by the studio as unprofitable.
It’s kind of like people not making any money because Hollywood movies that grossed $500 million are somehow shown by the studio as unprofitable.
Break up the Pac-12, ahh, the Pac-10, or does it re-invent itself as the Pac-8 again?
More like PAC 6 or maybe 4 lol. The exposure piece is a big thing imo. You’d think that money plus the lack of visibility on tv has a very good chance of pushing the other 3 corners schools to the B12. How many games can be sublicensed? I don’t know that it would be enough.
Then if the PAC deal is only for 20M and the B12 deal is for 30, are Oregon and Washington out there to be had for very cheap and would the B10 move their timetable on it.
In a way it's sad to see how the PAC probably will be breaking up and from a P-5 will become a G-6
i miss the days of conferences that didn't have a national presence feel, but were more of regional feel.
SEC
SWC
Big 8
BIG 10
PAC
ACC
( needed an eastern conference with
Rutgers, BC, Penn St,WV, Syracuse VT, Pitt & Temple in it)
B1G will be selective of who they want to join them moving forward. If a school can't provide value equal to the one year of the current media deal, chances are slim the B1G invites you. This is where Oregon may fall short. I'm not sure of Washington's actual value.
I think the B1G is waiting for the dust to settle and bring in some PAC programs on a 10-15 year partial payout before full share.
Start out with Vitamin conference money and slowly increase payout, over timespan of 10-15 years, until full share is reached
Once the 3 other 4 corner schools (Colorado already gone to Big 12) jump to the B-12, Oregon and Washing would be willing to make a deal like that.
Cal and Stanford as well .
Bringing them in might be for controlling all of the West Coast college sports especialy if the B1DG decides that want Staford and Cal in so the while of California is considered B1G territory .
I think once those two California schools look at their athletic budgers , the PAC revenue payout and what the B1G offers, they will follow the money and want to join if the B1G ill accept them.
The only threat to the B1G attempting to control the west coast is the B12, but how much of a threat are they? Those moves are secondary to screwing over the SEC while destroying the ACC. The idea is to keep the SEC bottled up in the south while removing the ACC from the big boy table. Once that's done, the B1G turns its attention back west, where several hungry teams will do pretty much anything the B1G ask of them.
I’ve always thought there would be more from the west, specifically to a total of at least 4 from the west. Timetable is always hard to predict other than tv contract expirations usually being a good time.
I’ve never seen USC and UCLA being left out there alone in perpetuity.
I’ve also said it’s not just the value of the school and oh if it doesn’t bring 70M or whatever value assigned individually then it’s a no go.
It has to be looked at as the whole is greater than the sum of its parts. New TV packages package can be possibly be opened for Friday night or Sat after dark if you have enough schools from the west. Also you could have not just a conference championship but also conference semi final games if the conference has enough teams. Those are two extra valuable games that can be packaged in the overall tv package. So you can’t just look at the individual value of each school but also how the conference as a whole can benefit.
I'm looking at the B1G looing to become a 24 program conference.
8 programs running down the east/south part of country
8 Midwest
8 West Coast
( maybe get a little greedy with 10 in each regional division)
I don't feel B1G expansion will stop until all of those 3 sections of the country have a B1G presences and the B1G will take what the PAC has to offer now, then when the ACC's GOR is up will fight the SEC for control of the south by picking off the ACC programs they can get.
I’ve thought anything from 20-24 is possible.
I think 20 is a good stopping point and to go over that you’d want ND to be “in the mix” and if they hold out then hold at 20.
Another negative to the Apple deal.
From the article:
Apple has dived into sports rights in recent years, inking deals with Major League Baseball in addition to an exclusive rights deal with Major League Soccer that began this season and has been aided by the arrival of Lionel Messi with Inter Miami. Based on those prior deals with MLB and MLS, Apple does not produce the games, which leaves the Pac-12 and its schools with the production cost and could impact bottom-line numbers for the schools.
www.espn.com
From the article:
Apple has dived into sports rights in recent years, inking deals with Major League Baseball in addition to an exclusive rights deal with Major League Soccer that began this season and has been aided by the arrival of Lionel Messi with Inter Miami. Based on those prior deals with MLB and MLS, Apple does not produce the games, which leaves the Pac-12 and its schools with the production cost and could impact bottom-line numbers for the schools.
Sources: Apple emerges as likely play for Pac-12
Although several options were presented to Pac-12 presidents and chancellors, the primarily subscription-based Apple streaming deal emerged as the likely leader when commissioner George Kliavkoff presented it to the group Tuesday.
www.espn.com
I'm thinking ND when the ACC GOR expires.
I believe though they are not a football member they are contractual obligated to play 5 football games against ACC teams every year until the ACC GOR expires, That is because they agreed to playing those games when they put their other sports programs in the ACC..
So the B1G will go after the west coast, then when the ACC's GOR is up
raid that conference for some of it's regular members to shore up eastern and southern section and add Notre Dame to the B1G Midwest section.