OT: Significant snowstorm on Friday night into Saturday
- Thread starter Mikemarc
- Start date
This is some epic-level whining. Trolling activity in weather threads is a small fraction of what it use to be. Busts are way too common and with the benefits of global warming, winters have been mild for the past several years. Your post is just more evidence of why you get trolled in the first place.
FYI - bears have been in hibernation in the stock thread for quite a while. Hope you are enjoying this market and making good money. 2026 should be a fun year!
My thanks to Numbers and BAC for the updates. While I got a couple or few inches less than forecasted the meteorologists nailed the timing and the snow & ice part. Some will call it a bust but does it really matter if I got 3 or 4 inches instead of 6? What matters to me is that they got it right that it would start around 6:00, the roads would be slick, and I should get my snowblower ready.
I should have done just that vs. all the constant prep and updates and holding. Just that my family has struggled to gather for last 4 years. My wife actually cleared off all the tables and stuff pre-set BEFORE I had a chance to even weigh in and contact folks. Spousal stress relief. THAT in itself was worth the cancellation. Just can't win anymore trying to do good deeds lol. HAlf the folks are happy I cancelled. Half are annoyed lol. CHEEERS!
100% Can't do a damn thing with it. I put down 25lbs of salt (and not a big salt guy)..... and just pushed about 100 square feet off the front porch drive. (10 by 10). Impossible.
And even more snow. Since my last measurment of 2.1" I had some errands to run and then I went to Oak Ridge Park and shoveled all the disc golf tee pads (29!), as I'm part of the club there and I enjoy being out in the snow shoveling and walking around. It was snowing the whole time and they went from 2.5" to 2.7" when I was done around 1:00 pm. So I got home and measured again and we got about 0.3" more snow as everything was covered again - bonus! My wife said it was snowing the whole time I was gone and the radar showed the snow - looks like that inverted trough feature some were talking about materialized for much of NJ, even down into SNJ. Anyway I think the final number is now 2.4" (I don't think we'r going to get more), which brings my season total up to 10.1". It's just beautiful out there and despite the bust for our area and most in NJ, I'm pretty happy with the result as it feels like deep winter out there - 28F at midday with snow falling - sweet! Here's a link to the radar summary for the storm through about noon today, which is pretty cool.
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachme...4329a597cc783feeb84f7481585b6415cfea7dd0f007&
Would've loved it, but would've liked beating PSU more.
Since it’s a weather thread, do I just hold onto my SNOW, at 20% below its high, or do I add?FYI - bears have been in hibernation in the stock thread for quite a while. Hope you are enjoying this market and making good money. 2026 should be a fun year!
As I said earlier:
Would you two stop agreeing and start bickering again? That's more entertaining!
Definitely add! Been trading gold futures for the past year, so I need to thank the goldbugs on the board.
Were you ever going to win completely in that situation?
I didn;t
I didn't see a post regarding the Washington's Crossing this year. Did it go off?
There was no Crossing this year as the Delaware is too low. I was up there in early November and I've never seen it so low before. The dock for the Durham boats was on a dry river bed. With the recent rains the water was high enough to raise the dock so two boats could be placed in the water but there was no way to cross.
We still went, to meet up with friends and former neighbors. There are plenty of activities even without the Crossing. Most of us then went to the Washington Crossing Inn for a quick beverage. Still worth the ride!
Time for a post-mortem on our snowfall and the NWS forecast and that of most media forecasts, which were generally similar to the NWS's with many even more bullish; there was one forecaster (JDJ Weather Consulting - didn't see his forecast before the storm) who barely busted at all, as he was well below most of the forecasts out there (his forecast is below). Below is the actual snowfall map for the Philly-NJ-NYC region, which is what I focus on in these posts (note that the NWS-Philly covers all NJ counties, except for Union, Essex, Hudson, Passaic and Bergen, which are covered by the NWS-NYC; a map showing the NWS-Philly and NWS-NYC counties is below) and the NWS snowfall forecast map from about 8 am Friday, as I like to gauge the outcome vs. the forecast from 8-12 hours before an event starts, which is what most people tend to make decisions on.
IMO, most of the NWS-Philly counties suffered major forecast busts, which I somewhat arbitrarily define as getting less than half of the low end of the snowfall forecast range, while a few areas suffered moderate forecast busts, which I define as getting below the low end of the forecast range, but more than half of that amount. with the only non-bust exception being Morris County which generally got 3-5" vs. a forecast of 4-7" (a bit low, but wouldn't call that a bust, except for SW Morris which got only 1-3"). Areas that had moderate to major busts (insert jokes or GIFs here) included the following:
- Areas along and a bit south of 195 in NJ and along the PA TPK extension from Philly to Allentown experienced major busts, as they were generally forecast to get 2-3" and these folks all got <1"
- Areas from Philly to LBI and a bit south of there experienced major busts,, as they were forecast to get 1-2" but only got <1/2" with some getting nada
- Areas like Carbon and the Lehigh Valley experienced major busts as they were forecast to get 2-4/3-5" and generally got only 1-2"
- Areas like Sussex/Monroe that generally got 2-4" vs. 4-7" forecasts experienced moderate busts
- Areas between 195 and 78 in NJ (most of CNJ) generally experienced a major bust, as most of the area was forecast to get 3-5", but got mostly <1"" with a few spots getting 1-2". The small exception to this was that the far northern parts of Somerset/Middlesex/Monmouth, which were forecast to get 4-7" got 2-3", which is a moderate bust IMO.
With regard to impact, at least they got the start time correct and the storm was quite impactful on road conditions even for areas that got mostly sleet with some freezing rain, as predicted. In fact, if the forecasters went by frozen mass, the forecasts would've ranged from being decent to maybe moderate busts. For example many locations in the 3-5" forecast areas got 1/2-1" of sleet, which is 1.5-3.0" of snow, by mass, which added to 1/2-1" of snow on top would give 2-4" of snow, by mass (minor bust) vs. the 1-2" snow reported (moderate to major bust).
And personally, my pre-storm forecast of 6.1" for my house was a major bust vs. 2.4" of sleet/snow I got and even vs. the 3.2" of snow-mass (0.4" sleet and 2" snow), but as I said above what we got was only a moderate bust vs. the 4-7" NWS forecast range.
Attachments
-
1767107387972.png
Last edited: