OT: Stock and Investment Thread

[T2Kplus20]

Crypto investors - check out this video and make sure your ETH supplies are ready to go:

@bob-loblaw
@RU-05
@ScarletNut

Sounds like ETH is only a few weeks away from a major upgrade that will dramatically drop gas fees. It is covered in the BNB section (around the 6 and 7 min mark).

 

[T2Kplus20]

Why did regulators want to meet w Tesla? Please don't tell me battery fires and unexpected acceleration. That's the same bs the short and distort TSLAQ gang has been spinning for years. Not true then, not true now. Maybe the meetings are about rolling out autonomy? The truth is, no one knows, and personally, I'm not worried. But that's just me.

In this thread, TDS means Tesla Derangement Syndrome.

 

[phs73rc77gsm83]

If you get tired of the pumpers, read this:

https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc210201/

Thanks for posting. In my opinion this is an excellent article with insightful perspective and many reminders. Having said that, after a quick look at their prospectus, I would not be inclined to invest in their funds.

 

[RUAldo]

If you get tired of the pumpers, read this:

https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc210201/

It’s a long article but well worth the read. Plus, the clip from Silicon Valley is hilarious. For anyone that has never watched Silicon Valley on HBO it’s one of the best series.

 

[RU in IM]

Thanks for posting. In my opinion this is an excellent article with insightful perspective and many reminders. Having said that, after a quick look at their prospectus, I would not be inclined to invest in their funds.

correct, I’m not investing in their funds either, but the many many meaningful charts that show how overbought the market is, should be a wake up call

 

[RUDead]

It’s a long article but well worth the read. Plus, the clip from Silicon Valley is hilarious. For anyone that has never watched Silicon Valley on HBO it’s one of the best series.

That's a great show.

 

[T2Kplus20]

correct, I’m not investing in their funds either, but the many many meaningful charts that show how overbought the market is, should be a wake up call

The market is overbought in normal times, but the game has changed. As long as interest rates stay at zero (or close to it) and the feds keep pumping, the market will continue to go up. The vast majority of people in America have 2 choices for their money. Invest in the stock market or essentially hide your money under the mattress. Enjoy the party while it lasts (definitely through 2021 and probably 2022).

 

[Zimm80]

Crypto investors - check out this video and make sure your ETH supplies are ready to go:

@bob-loblaw
@RU-05
@ScarletNut

Sounds like ETH is only a few weeks away from a major upgrade that will dramatically drop gas fees. It is covered in the BNB section (around the 6 and 7 min mark).

Thanks for that little tidbit, have a great weekend.

 

[Jtung230]

Never said it was. You're implying that stationary storage has the same functionality as a gasoline generator, and therefore can be compared on cost. That is false.
Your 75 years, and 50% savings is also a lie. But that's ok. You're bitter, and your motives are clear and known to those who have been reading this thread.
Since I'm a nice guy, I'll let you know you should establish that tsla short position soon. I don't see any big runs in the near future, and it's possible Q1 and Q2 disappoint. S & X sales will be flat w/ production lines being retooled. But once Berlin and Austin come on line (each w/ their own cell production lines) and Shanghai reaches full production, you're going to see another big run.

You are too funny. Of course I wasn’t serious about 75 years and 50% but the fact you thought you need to defend that means I wasn’t that far off. I’m not bitter. I’m actually a big fan of green energy. That’s why I prices out all the products because I was a potential customer. The problem is costs and that’s why it’s not a mass market product. I personally don’t think it’s a good time to short it because of the Bitcoin investment. I rather be late than early to this party.

 

[BellyFullOfWhiteDogCrap]

 

[Frida's Boss]

The market is overbought in normal times, but the game has changed. As long as interest rates stay at zero (or close to it) and the feds keep pumping, the market will continue to go up. The vast majority of people in America have 2 choices for their money. Invest in the stock market or essentially hide your money under the mattress. Enjoy the party while it lasts (definitely through 2021 and probably 2022).

So said Chuck Prince circa 2007.

 

[T2Kplus20]

So said Chuck Prince circa 2007.

1. Apples and oranges (was there 0% rates in 2008 with the feds pumping)
2. Made a ton of money in 2008 and 2009. Just kept buying.

 

[Frida's Boss]

1. Apples and oranges (was there 0% rates in 2008 with the feds pumping)
2. Made a ton of money in 2008 and 2009. Just kept buying.

1. Yes.
2. Good luck.

 

[T2Kplus20]

1. Yes.
2. Good luck.

1. No (rates where about 3% when the s started to hit the fan in early 2008 and it was close to 5% in 2007, which you mentioned in your post).
2. Don't need luck, just data.

 

[T2Kplus20]

I'm seeing Hive up 4%.

There seems to be different times when different equity types become open for trading?

FYI - rumors that HIVE and Argo are working on Nasdaq listings. Kaboom if this happens!

 

[Frida's Boss]

1. No (rates where about 3% when the s started to hit the fan in early 2008 and it was close to 5% in 2007, which you mentioned in your post).
2. Don't need luck, just data.

The Fed slashed rates then by about the same magnitude.

And, trust me, you need luck. Anyone aggressively long and pursuing speculative assets needs a good bit of luck.

 

[T2Kplus20]

The Fed slashed rates then by about the same magnitude.

And, trust me, you need luck. Anyone aggressively long and pursuing speculative assets needs a good bit of luck.

They slashed after the s hit the fan. Apples and oranges versus today.

 

[Frida's Boss]

They slashed after the s hit the fan. Apples and oranges versus today.

As the did in this crisis. Not so different. Except this time they were approved to purchase a far more expansive group of risk assets, such as high yield bonds. That is very different than last time. But the rate action wasn’t all that different.

 

[T2Kplus20]

As the did in this crisis. Not so different. Except this time they were approved to purchase a far more expansive group of risk assets, such as high yield bonds. That is very different than last time. But the rate action wasn’t all that different.

Rates were only 1.5% prior to COVID and the feds were already pumping. Also, COVID is a night and day different crisis compared to 2008/2009. Obviously, the market snapped back with several months and started hitting all-time highs.

Once again, I agree that the bear is on the horizon, but I doubt anything lasting will happen in 2021 and probably not well into 2022. Interest rates, feds pumping, trillions of stimulus, vaccine and society reopening. Too much positive going on right now. If inflation spikes and forces the feds hand, I will be worried.

Until then, enjoy and take advantage of the party.

 

[RU05]

It’s Saturday!!!! LOL

You guys do know who the largest holders of gold are? If you think those players will rotate out of gold, then you have 90% more upside.

I'm not sure if those large holders of gold will ever rotate out. But I do know money is flowing into BTC, while trickling out of Gold(over the last 6 months or so in regards to the latter).

As both of these are very much psychological plays, money flows are important to watch.

 

[RUAldo]

As the old Poker saying goes, if you can't spot the sucker in your first half hour at the table, then you are the sucker.

 

[RU05]

FYI - Comments from ARK on some of their big movements this week:

​ ​ ​ We share weekly commentaries with investors on stocks in our strategies that have appreciated or dropped more than 15% in a day during the course of the week. We hope you find this commentary useful.​ ​

​ ​ ​ ZhongAn Online (6060 HK)​ 32%​ ZhongAn Online (6060HK) appreciated more than 32% on Tuesday in what we believe is a delayed response to results that suggest its heavy investment spending is paying off. ZhongAn is an online-only insurance company based in China that has expanded into new markets and products during the past few years. As a result of increased business activity and lower than expect underwriting losses, ZhongAn expects to report that it turned the corner from losses to a net profit for the full year in 2020.​ Butterfly Network (BFLY)​ 17%​ Butterfly Network (BFLY), a medical technology company focused on democratizing access to point-of-care ultrasound (POCUS) devices, traded up nearly 17% on Wednesday after consummating its merger with Longview Acquisition Corporation (LGVW), a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC). In our view, investors are building positions in Butterfly as they learn more about its competitive advantages, particularly its application of federated learning and avoidance of piezoelectric crystal technology.​ Yeahka (9923 HK)​ 26%​ Yeahka (9923HK), a QR-code based independent payment processing company in China, rose 26% on Wednesday, as part of a broad-based rally in China-based SaaS companies.​ Fastly (FSLY)​ 15%​ Fastly (FSLY), an edge computing platform-as-a-service company, traded down 15% on Thursday despite reporting fourth quarter revenue and 2021 revenue guidance in line with expectations. The results were underwhelming on a sequential basis compared to those of its competitor, Cloudflare (NET), as well as on an organic basis excluding the contribution from Signal Sciences.​ Organovo (ONVO)​ 15%​ Organovo (ONVO), a biotechnology company focused on 3D-bioprinting, traded down 15% on Thursday in a broad market selloff. We believe shares will remain volatile until Organovo reveals more about its path forward.​ Stratasys (SSYS)​ 15%​ Stratasys (SSYS) closed down 15% during a broad-based market sell-off on Thursday after the company reported that it acquired RPS, a UK based stereolithography (SLA) 3D printing company, and plans to phase out its V650 Flex, an SLA 3D printer introduced in 2019.​ ExOne (XONE)​ 18%​ ExOne (XONE) closed up more than 18% on Friday, perhaps in a delayed response to an announcment that it is developing a 3D printing factory housed in a shipping container for the Department of Defense (DoD).​

Bought some BFLY the other day. It's a name that keeps popping up. As it just came public, and there are no fundamentals to sift through, I'm just working on the buzz right now.

Been watching FSLY, roller coaster continues there.


Josh Brown recommended GHVI, another spac, which recently merged with Matterport, a spacial data (think 3d imaging) company. If CW isn't interested in this one specifically, I'm sure she has an eye on the space.

 

[RU05]

Joe Taranova made a pretty good hockey analogy on the Halftime report(on Friday I think).

Consider this market a major 5 on 3 power play advantage. It won't last forever, eventually the opposition will be out of the penalty box, so what you want to do now, is rack up as many goals as you can.

He didn't go this far into the analogy, but if you think the analogy has merit, I would then ask where are most of the goals scored on a power play? In this market it has been, fwd looking companies, green energy, crypto, small caps. I think there are certain sectors which have done well compared to historical performance, the 18% gain from Walmart was recently talked about, but have underperformed relative to swaths of the market which have done far better.

 

[Frida's Boss]

Rates were only 1.5% prior to COVID and the feds were already pumping. Also, COVID is a night and day different crisis compared to 2008/2009. Obviously, the market snapped back with several months and started hitting all-time highs.

Once again, I agree that the bear is on the horizon, but I doubt anything lasting will happen in 2021 and probably not well into 2022. Interest rates, feds pumping, trillions of stimulus, vaccine and society reopening. Too much positive going on right now. If inflation spikes and forces the feds hand, I will be worried.

Until then, enjoy and take advantage of the party.

As I said, you have a kindred spirit in Prince. Prince said Citi had to keep dancing, and the implication was they’d be able to shut off risk when warning signs emerged. You are, in essence, offering a similar justification. The record of investors justifying risk-on behavior until warning signs emerge isn’t great. Because here’s the real issue. The catalysts you are discussing are all known by the market, Those positive items are priced in, leading to very stretched valuation metrics. Historically, they’ve never been more stretched. What’s not priced in is any sort of margin for negative news, and this is typical for euphoric bubbles. By definition, markets change when new information not previously discounted emerges. If valuations are in a range of fair value, the market can digest that information with some disruption but nothing too dramatic. However, when valuations are stretched, the ability to factor in negative news with minimal disruption is challenged. And it’s worth noting that the opposite is true at bottoms. Fear of loss leads to overly pessimistic markets which can’t imagine anything positive, in my view, we are at the opposite end of that spectrum. All of the signs - valuation extremes, dismissal of valuation metrics because “this time it’s different,” new investors who can’t take on risk fast enough for fear of missing out...its all here, right now. A new generation of speculators emerges dismissing history, just as has happened with some regularity in the past. They’ve never been right to dismiss valuation. Today, I suspect many are making the exact same mistake wrapped in the false comfort that it’s different now and they know better. Or that they will uniquely be able to spot warning signs before the markets, and reallocate ahead of trouble, Which is why I’ve offered you good luck. It will be needed to pull of what you’re looking to do,

 

[T2Kplus20]

Joe Taranova made a pretty good hockey analogy on the Halftime report(on Friday I think).

Consider this market a major 5 on 3 power play advantage. It won't last forever, eventually the opposition will be out of the penalty box, so what you want to do now, is rack up as many goals as you can.

He didn't go this far into the analogy, but if you think the analogy has merit, I would then ask where are most of the goals scored on a power play? In this market it has been, fwd looking companies, green energy, crypto, small caps. I think there are certain sectors which have done well compared to historical performance, the 18% gain from Walmart was recently talked about, but have underperformed relative to swaths of the market which have done far better.

+1
Keep rolling until the game changes. I have been lightening up on broad indexes and focuses on sectors and markets. I am a big believer that innovation will still perform well in a bear market. As Frida has mentioned (via Grantham), emerging markets will likely be fruitful in a downturn. I even jumped into a small allocation with a China-based managed fund (TCELX) to better cover EMs.

 

[Scarletnut]

Bitcoin hit 58k today

 

[RU in IM]

As I said, you have a kindred spirit in Prince. Prince said Citi had to keep dancing, and the implication was they’d be able to shut off risk when warning signs emerged. You are, in essence, offering a similar justification. The record of investors justifying risk-on behavior until warning signs emerge isn’t great. Because here’s the real issue. The catalysts you are discussing are all known by the market, Those positive items are priced in, leading to very stretched valuation metrics. Historically, they’ve never been more stretched. What’s not priced in is any sort of margin for negative news, and this is typical for euphoric bubbles. By definition, markets change when new information not previously discounted emerges. If valuations are in a range of fair value, the market can digest that information with some disruption but nothing too dramatic. However, when valuations are stretched, the ability to factor in negative news with minimal disruption is challenged. And it’s worth noting that the opposite is true at bottoms. Fear of loss leads to overly pessimistic markets which can’t imagine anything positive, in my view, we are at the opposite end of that spectrum. All of the signs - valuation extremes, dismissal of valuation metrics because “this time it’s different,” new investors who can’t take on risk fast enough for fear of missing out...its all here, right now. A new generation of speculators emerges dismissing history, just as has happened with some regularity in the past. They’ve never been right to dismiss valuation. Today, I suspect many are making the exact same mistake wrapped in the false comfort that it’s different now and they know better. Or that they will uniquely be able to spot warning signs before the markets, and reallocate ahead of trouble, Which is why I’ve offered you good luck. It will be needed to pull of what you’re looking to do,

this ^^^^^^. Great post!! Especially the “it’s different this time.“ The last time prices were this stretched compared to the fundamentals was 21 years ago. The “experts“ at the time justified the prices by saying “it‘s the new economy” (I heard this over and over again at the time), and it’s the new way stocks are valued. Then the **** hit the fan an the NASDAQ dropped 80%. Now this time there are not as many stocks with crazy prices (but there are a lot) so the pain most likely won’t be a bad, but you can’t argue that current prices make sense. And for those who think that they will just get out in time, well, when do they know when to get out? People thought that last time, but many bought the dips and ended in worse position. So, for example, if Tesla drops to 700, many that own the stock will think that they are getting a bargain and will buy more, but then the price continues to drop. That’s why they say “it‘s tough to catch a falling knife”.

 

[RUschool]

Freida‘s Boss,

When the market does crashes, I keep on hearing that it will be similar to Japan and won’t recover for a long time. Do you expect a quick turn in 3-5 years or more like 10 years or more?

 

[RU05]

this ^^^^^^. Great post!! Especially the “it’s different this time.“ The last time prices were this stretched compared to the fundamentals was 21 years ago. The “experts“ at the time justified the prices by saying “it‘s the new economy” (I heard this over and over again at the time), and it’s the new way stocks are valued. Then the **** hit the fan an the NASDAQ dropped 80%. Now this time there are not as many stocks with crazy prices (but there are a lot) so the pain most likely won’t be a bad, but you can’t argue that current prices make sense. And for those who think that they will just get out in time, well, when do they know when to get out? People thought that last time, but many bought the dips and ended in worse position. So, for example, if Tesla drops to 700, many that own the stock will think that they are getting a bargain and will buy more, but then the price continues to drop. That’s why they say “it‘s tough to catch a falling knife”.

You maintain exposure but continue to pull profits, those profits should then be allocated to more reasonably valued stocks.

And since people keep trotting out the same tired sayings such as "this time it's different" I'll use one that was posted here the other day.

As Peter Lynch said, (paraphrasing) I've seen more money lost in the anticipation of a correction, then in the corrections themselves.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Bitcoin hit 58k today

Keep it rolling!
Monday is going to be fun.

 

[T2Kplus20]

You maintain exposure but continue to pull profits, those profits should then be allocated to more reasonably valued stocks.

And since people keep trotting out the same tired sayings such as "this time it's different" I'll use one that was posted here the other day.

As Peter Lynch said, (paraphrasing) I've seen more money lost in the anticipation of a correction, then in the corrections themselves.

We all need to be careful with "value" stocks. They performed well above growth and S&P 500 in the early 2000s, but not after the 2008/2009 crash. Beware of the value traps.

Also, excellent quote by Lynch.
#truth

 

[Frida's Boss]

Freida‘s Boss,

When the market does crashes, I keep on hearing that it will be similar to Japan and won’t recover for a long time. Do you expect a quick turn in 3-5 years or more like 10 years or more?

I suppose those concerns stem from rates, and the assumption that Fed efforts to stem the underlying economic causes leading to a large market decline would prove unsuccessful. While that may come to pass (I don’t know if it will or not), there are important differences between Japan and the US which makes a Japanese style languishing less likely.

There is far less hedge fund and private equity activity in Japan, and, consequently, far, far less shareholder activism. Corporate takeovers and LBOs happen less frequently, and that potential buyer group would take advantage of cheap public valuations in the US. Also, bankruptcies and reorganization’s happens less frequently in Japan, Over levered businesses are permitted to stay that way, often indefinitely, whereas US lenders would more proactively seek to restructure insolvent companies. There are many other reasons, but I think those two are significant.

 

[Frida's Boss]

We all need to be careful with "value" stocks. They performed well above growth and S&P 500 in the early 2000s, but not after the 2008/2009 crash. Beware of the value traps.

Also, excellent quote by Lynch.
#truth

Lynch’s quote is trotted out in the midst of bubbles. Happened in 1999, too. Of course, subsequent market declines wipe out those gains, I suppose many will claim they can nimbly trade around such volatility. I’ll add the prevalence of that assertion, and the use of Lynch’s quote, to the list of reliable bubble indicators.

Your comment regarding “value” traps is reasonable, in fact, this idea of “value” versus “growth” investing gets in the way of good analysis. A company with strong growth prospects may indeed be purchased at a good, value price if it can be acquired for a price at a discount to a reasonable calculated valuation. Tesla, for example, could trade at a price where a purchaser could buy and have a margin of error baked into the investment. In my view, Tesla doesn’t trade anywhere near that price today, but that doesn’t mean it might not at some future date. Something like bitcoin, of course, could never have a margin of safety because it cannot be valued. That said, in bubble like conditions like we are in today, companies trading at low multiples of earnings or cash flow or book value tend to have good reasons to do so, and generally aren’t good values at all.

 

[RUAldo]

You maintain exposure but continue to pull profits, those profits should then be allocated to more reasonably valued stocks.

And since people keep trotting out the same tired sayings such as "this time it's different" I'll use one that was posted here the other day.

As Peter Lynch said, (paraphrasing) I've seen more money lost in the anticipation of a correction, then in the corrections themselves.

I’m trimming some positions in my individual account and IRAs as part of regular profit taking. However, I Haven’t reinvested much yet since my gut tells me to hold more cash given the sky high prices and in anticipation of a correction. I take the Lynch approach in my 401K/529s and I’m of the opinion that the rich, politicians, pension hol

Lynch’s quote is trotted out in the midst of bubbles. Happened in 1999, too. Of course, subsequent market declines wipe out those gains, I suppose many will claim they can nimbly trade around such volatility. I’ll add the prevalence of that assertion, and the use of Lynch’s quote, to the list of reliable bubble indicators.

Your comment regarding “value” traps is reasonable, in fact, this idea of “value” versus “growth” investing gets in the way of good analysis. A company with strong growth prospects may indeed be purchased at a good, value price if it can be acquired for a price at a discount to a reasonable calculated valuation. Tesla, for example, could trade at a price where a purchaser could buy and have a margin of error baked into the investment. In my view, Tesla doesn’t trade anywhere near that price today, but that doesn’t mean it might not at some future date. Something like bitcoin, of course, could never have a margin of safety because it cannot be valued. That said, in bubble like conditions like we are in today, companies trading at low multiples of earnings or cash flow or book value tend to have good reasons to do so, and generally aren’t good values at all.

Best clip:

 

[T2Kplus20]

Lynch’s quote is trotted out in the midst of bubbles. Happened in 1999, too. Of course, subsequent market declines wipe out those gains, I suppose many will claim they can nimbly trade around such volatility. I’ll add the prevalence of that assertion, and the use of Lynch’s quote, to the list of reliable bubble indicators.

Your comment regarding “value” traps is reasonable, in fact, this idea of “value” versus “growth” investing gets in the way of good analysis. A company with strong growth prospects may indeed be purchased at a good, value price if it can be acquired for a price at a discount to a reasonable calculated valuation. Tesla, for example, could trade at a price where a purchaser could buy and have a margin of error baked into the investment. In my view, Tesla doesn’t trade anywhere near that price today, but that doesn’t mean it might not at some future date. Something like bitcoin, of course, could never have a margin of safety because it cannot be valued. That said, in bubble like conditions like we are in today, companies trading at low multiples of earnings or cash flow or book value tend to have good reasons to do so, and generally aren’t good values at all.

Good stuff on value traps, thanks.

FYI - just added to my signature.

 

[RU05]

The beauty of BTC not having an intrinsic value is it can never be considered overvalued.

 

[RU05]

Did people trot out the Lynch quote in 1999? I'll trust that they did.

But people have been calling this a bubble since June.

It's been a huge run since then, it probably doesn't end tomorrow.

So back to the Lynch quote.

 

[RU05]

Should also be noted that some of the most prevalent bubble callers aren't pulling their money out of the market.

Some are even throwing their money into the dreaded SPAC craze.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Did people trot out the Lynch quote in 1999? I'll trust that they did.

But people have been calling this a bubble since June.

It's been a huge run since then, it probably doesn't end tomorrow.

So back to the Lynch quote.

Some people (the bears) have been calling this a bubble for the past 3-4 years.

 

[T2Kplus20]

FYI - pretty good video on future BTC projections (starting at the 10-min mark):

Bottom line, based on the charts of the past 2 bull run and halfing cycles, BTC projected to reach $150-$175k later this year. Then drop to $30k'ish and settle closer to $60k. In 2024 for the next halfing and bull run, watch out for $300k to $500k levels.