I'm going to predict it won't follow a similar path. I could see it at $150, but don't think it would get back anywhere near $30. Too much institutional money to allow that to happen.
The higher this goes, the higher the support.
OT: Stock and Investment Thread
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I'm going to predict it won't follow a similar path. I could see it at $150, but don't think it would get back anywhere near $30. Too much institutional money to allow that to happen.
The higher this goes, the higher the support.
I'm going to agree with you. Even though the first 2 bull runs are eerily similar, a lot has changed with BTC. I guess that video sums up the most conservative possibility. I have X amount of dollars for my crypto account. My plan was to put in 60% now *which I did" and sit on the other 40% for the correction next year. I'm wondering if it would be better for me to bump up phase 1 to 75%. Hmmm.....
Just like in 1999. Making early calls is pretty typical for these things, and they are also typically called out as such and dismissed. Until, of course, well, history repeats.
If someone pulled back 3-4 years ago, there is no correction that would account for all the returns that were missed.
At the end of the day, I am not worried about the next bear/correction. I have a 16-year time horizon and plenty of resources to keep buying (and a better ability to figure our how to adjust allocations and find the right sectors/markets).
I am more worried about the following bear since it will be closer to our go time.
Interesting article about dividends! And how many of them were cut in 2020 by global companies, but the US stood pretty strong.
Also, regarding a company near and dear to my heart! Great buy and hold option. ARKK added NVS to their portfolio last year.
Also, regarding a company near and dear to my heart! Great buy and hold option. ARKK added NVS to their portfolio last year.
Sure. Unless, of course, you looked at market history. Then you’d see your 16 year horizon is inside of past troughs to peak.
No it's not. I researched tons of funds and indexes from 1999 onwards (literally year by year). If you're not recovered within 3-4 years max, you aren't doing your HW.
unfortunately, charts work until they don’t. If everything moved based on charts, no-one would ever need to “value” anything. They would just plug their Investment criteria in their trade program based on charts and call it a day.
And if charts were consistently accurate, you should be running for the hills with your equity investments. Based on the charts I showed the other day, we will be in for a world of hurt, given how much the markets are over valued. When will the correction happen? I have no clue. Could be next month, could be next year, or even after. But since we ARE overvalued, and given my age, my equity position will be quite low. If I miss a 10-15% increase, I’ll be fine given previous gains. If I stay heavily invested and lose 30%, I’ll need to put off retirement. And for what it’s worth, I am not a bear on the whole market as I am long on several stocks. Good luck to everyone, but to take a quote from the Field of Dreams movie, “he’s not going to want to load the bases, so look for low and away.......,but, watch out for one in your ear”. Bottom line, I try balanced at the plate, and not look too much in the the bull direction because I can’t afford to take one in my ear. My philosophy is largely due to my age, and where the market is; I’m not suggesting that my approach fits all or even the right approach.
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+1
Since the first 2 cycles didn't include any institutional support, the charts likely represent the worse possible scenario for this run. Lots of upside this time around.
FYI, the S&P index, which historically has outperformed most funds, was approximately 1,500 on March 31, 2000, it took 7 years to get back to that level. And then, after the market dropped again in 2008, it didn’t get back to 1,500 until early 2013, almost 13 years after the 2000 peak. And as far as the tech heavy NASDAQ, it took FIFTEEN YEARS to get back to the 5,000 level it hit in 2000.
You understand that there are things called mutual funds that are not solely based on major exchanges, right?
Reread my post. The data stands. Two of my long time funds crushed it from 1999 to 2013:
S&P = +39.1%
PRNHX = +330.3%
PRHSX = +547.3%
And there are plenty of more examples.
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I’m not predicting anything. But I am pointing out that the last time rates were very low and commenced a generation long Treasury bear market, the market took 17 years to climb back to where it was despite very robust economic growth. That period was before 1999.
Not worried about such ancient times. If it repeats itself, you can tell me what to do!
Not worried about such ancient times. If it repeats itself, you can tell me what to do!
Once again, good luck.
I’m long the market but have been slowly building a larger cash position. FWIW, most of the people I know who have been at this a while are flat or short here. And, Buffet buying VZ and Elliott Management going back to AT&T after exiting last year says a lot.
What year is that clip from? But Pins and Snap have both had strong revenue growth in recent years. And Amazon is as dominant a company as there is in this country.
That dude knew what he was talking about.
I think it was 2016. If you’ve never seen the series Silicon Valley on HBO it’s up there with Entourage as one of the greats. Funny as hell.
I think it says that Smart Money is starting to rotate into value/dividend plays. Retail investors are going to get shredded in a correction especially those chasing SPACs and spec plays.
Trust me - I was a value trap sucker more times than I’d like to admit when I first got started. At times like this with a potential correction on the horizon I view VZ/AT&T as safe havens. I wouldn’t transition my entire portfolio, but I’ll sleep better at night if volatility picks up. It doesn’t take a genius to realize SPACs will be the first to get crushed, followed by inflated stocks like Tesla and the biotechs that double daily. There will come a time when PE matters again.
If the fear is of a major market correction, a company that has not partaken in the run, but does make money and distributes dividends, is a pretty safe place to park your money.
If your not concerned about a correction, then yeah, value trap.
SPACs are feasting on retail investors. SPACs fell off a cliff ten years ago because nobody that knew anything about investing would touch them. Enter the RH retail investor...
Well, if you had PRNHX at the height of the dot.com bubble, it hit 32, nine plus years later the price got down to 14. So, even your prized FUND got hammered twice and, at one point was down 50% over a NINE year period. So, they DON’T always come back in 3-4 years.
Rookie mistake. Don't look at price, which doesn't include payouts, dividends, and corresponding adjustments. You need to look at Morningstar's $10k growth charts for the true story. PRNHX and PRHSX crushed the market and performed very well (as per my data posted before).
#3-4yearsatmost
More on ETH 2.0 and the EIP-1559 upgrade:
There’s multiple examples of SPAC’s that are over 50-60% institutionally owned, those are the ones I’ve been buying when I do. I don’t disagree that the craze is a bit much but completely ignoring them, especially when a legitimate target is confirmed, is also a mistake in my opinion.
time to put your ETH supplies to work. It’s down 10% this morning, so you can get it at a “discount.” I truly wish you the best. Unfortunately, or fortunately I don’t understand crypto (and I have read a ton on it), and since I am so late to the party, I don’t plan on showing up. At this point, it’s my loss.
+1
Definitely a nice buying day if the discounts hold. The science behind cryptos are beyond me, but it is pretty straightforward to learn the basics and understand its usability (or at least the vision for it). This bull cycle seems to be in full force but it is still at the beginning. I only jumped in 5-6 weeks ago, so it's not like I got in at the ground level.
Careful of the TKR jinx. It lives beyond just Rutgers sports.
What's the problem? Quality company with a bright innovative future. Just like Sam Goody and FYE.
10 year treasury up to 1.49% when it was near zero back in March. That's the equivalent of a 5% treasury moving to 9% back in the day. That's a huge move. The correction is nearing. IMO it won't be full blown crash since there is a lot of cash on the sidelines but this will probably be a "reflationary" correction. If I'm right, that would be a good thing for the market.
Not sure there are a lot of cash on the sideline. FOMO has made people jump in. Especially in highly speculative stocks.