OT: Stock and Investment Thread
- Thread starter RU05
- Start date
Your numbers lie. Tesla delivered 499,550 vehicles. They missed by 450 vehicles, during a global pandemic, and with a 6 week factory shutdown.
Also, every other auto maker on the planet saw deliveries drop last year except for one company. Can you guess who?
Last edited:
Is GM going to be profitable on the Hummer or Bolt? Is Ford profitable on the Mach-E? I'd love to know the answer to these questions. Both companies are producing limited quantities of these vehicles. Why are they limiting production?
Profitability wasn't really wasn't what my comment was about. It was more about manufacturing efficiency, battery technology, battery supply, software, over the air updates, autonomy + more. Give me another American OEM that is doing any of these things better than Tesla. Then realize that Tesla isn't standing still on any of these fronts. They're accelerating. I'm not a tesla fan gone astray. It's just the data.
And for the record, I'm all about EVs. The more the better. There are millions of ICE cars that need to be replaced with EVs. Tesla can't do it alone.
My mistake - another poster wrote that they only delivered 495K and I didn’t check it although I knew they fell short. Regardless, we can continue to debate the TSLA cult phenomenon and the “Technoking” but TSLA’s PE is still over 1,100 and competition has increased considerably. Quite simply, the stock does not trade on fundamentals, valuation, or any rational metrics - as evidenced by daily/weekly pops and drops of 20%-30%. Everyone that piled in at $900 when CW was pumping it on CNBC got hammered. I’m not sure I can name any other stocks in the S&P 500 with Tesla’s level of volatility.
I think that as more companies come out with EV's, TSLA superiority in the field will become more apparent and the appreciation for TSLA will be more widespread. It is one thing to say that you are going to come with EV's and another to come up with a product, make it work, mass produce it and still be profitable. I still think there will be many other winners in the field as well. I am thinking VW, GM, possibly Ford. I thought Lucid was going to be one of them as well, but right now I am not sure.
Think about what Honda, Toyota, and Hyundai did to the American small/midsize vehicle market in the 80s and 90s. I think history will be repeating itself, but this time with Chinese autos.
I may be wrong, but I don't ever see any major technological advancement from China or India for that matter. They do a great job of mass producing existing technology, but very little innovation comes from those places. Anything they can do there with their labor force can potentially be replicated in other places.
+1
Telsa is way ahead of any other EV makers. Will others catch up? Some will, some won't. No idea which ones.
You may be correct, and it's your 2nd point that is key. EV demand is rapidly growing, yet Ford and GM are limiting their production. Why? Could it be they're losing money on every EV they make? If they can't turn a profit on a $40-60K vehicle, how can they expect to enter the market of lower priced cars where margins are slimmer? This is where China comes in and dominates (along with Tesla), just like the Japanese did 30 years ago. Forget Tesla for a second, and realize China is pulling ahead of American OEMs. They have the production advantage.
Of course, I could be totally wrong, but this is what the tea leaves look like from my perspective.
Are you asking me if I read the 10kWhat is QS' revenue and profit #'s?
?Fintech is going to be really heating up. It worked well during the pandemic, but will really pick up steam as a reopening trade.
Trading around a long term bull thesis is not easy. Doing it successfully is one of the things that makes Cathie Wood so good at what she does.
Do you think she traded TSLA in 2020? If she did, guaranteed that she would have done better by just holding.
She also runs a fund and has to maintain TSLA at a certain percentage of the total portfolio. She is often forced to trade when TSLA outperforms her other stocks. I don't think you would impose such a rule in your personal portfolio. So if that is the case, your situation is not an exact comparison. But regardless, she does overall do a better job of trading around a bull thesis.
GME was down 20%Market sprinted through the finish line today!
TSLA up 2%.
#1 GM is actually producing EVs at a lower price point than tesla
#1a this likely leads to their pivot to make a hummer at 100k plus
#2 their investments are just starting to take shape and will begin to payoff as they are ahead of most other legacy automakers
Final point - anybody who thinks tesla(or any singular car company) can dominate is just plain wrong. People will always want options to differentiate themselves. How boring would it be of we all wore and drove the same exact thing.
For this reason costs for tesla will continue to rise. They better start making more models, in more trims, and more colors and more frequently update the models. They are still niche for now, but here in socal it's getting really bland seeing white model 3s everywhere. Clock is ticking...
Vids like this remind me why I’m not a “hodler” of crypto.
Why you don't invest in cryptos:
Unlike you, I have the guts! Too invest 0.3-0.4% of my assets.
But seriously, it's a lot of fun to learn something new.
I trust my skills at the craps table more than I do my ability to figure out the crypto game. I’ve spent so much time reading up on crypto yet my gut always tells me it’s a pyramid scheme. Of course, no offense to the crypto crazies on this board. On the other hand, I do believe in blockchain and NFTs. Although NFTs will suffer an epic crash at some point because from what I understand most NFTs of significant value are being purchased with BTC in order to avoid the tax man plus the NFT market will become so flooded with product that licensing a basketball video clip for tens of thousands of dollars will eventually go down as one of the dumbest ideas in the history of the world.Why you don't invest in cryptos:
Unlike you, I have the guts! Too invest 0.3-0.4% of my assets.
But seriously, it's a lot of fun to learn something new.
If you believe in blockchain, you should believe in Ethereum and Bitcoin. That's my focus and also on some of the companies that support ETH, BTC, and the technology. Like with everything, you can stay conservative and focus on the items with the track records.
Besides this, I do think Cardano and Polkadot have legs, but I'm not buying coins directly. Grayscale needs to come out with these trusts for me to be interested.
I also don't get the value in currency that has a finite number of availability. It seems like more of a collectible item than currency. I keep saying to myself, what is someone (Bill Gates, Bezos, Musk, etc) starts collecting bitcoins and hoards a large number of them? Then only a smaller number will be around for trading and thereby the value would skyrocket. It makes no sense to me. I guess if you invest 0.3-0.4% of your assets then it maybe fun, but that just doesn't move the needle enough for me to spend my time on it. Knowing myself, I will end up investing more and more over time and it will cease to become a 0.3-0.4% of my portfolio and eventually become a headache. For @T2Kplus10, he keeps buying more (or at least talks about buying more all the time) and I can see he is already becoming more of a trader of Bitcoin and Ethereum.
I don't understand the purpose of these trusts when it comes to cryptocurrencies. If you own shares in the trust, you cannot encash them for Bitcoin or Ethereum coins, correct? If cryptocurrency is eventually to replace dollars and other currencies, then these trusts serve no purpose other than enriching Grayscale. For people buying the trusts, it is just an investment vehicle and of no real world use for the investors. I don't get it. In some ways, it does seem like a Ponzi scheme, but let the fun continue.
If we're going to use athlete analogies for Tesla, rather than Usain Bolt I would compare Tesla to Dick Fosbury, who revolutionized the sport of high-jumping in 1968. Disruptive and transitional, that is Tesla and Musk.
It’s hard not to question the true value of NFTs. Beeple’s digital artwork is the perfect example. It was purchased by a NFT investor that has a clear interest in making sure NFTs have inflated values. He bought the Beeple piece for something like $60M in Ethereum and that single auction result automatically boosted the value of the rest of his NFTs. But, it really starts to get crazy when you read how these “investors” want to monetize NFTs. The same guy bought 20 single-edition Beeple images for a combined $2.2 million in December. From what I understand he then locked the artwork using blockchain into another smart contract, and then fractionalized them and intends to sell the fractions. Some idiot is going to buy a fraction of digital artwork as an investment?! This is all eerily reminiscent of Second Life when people were paying thousands for virtual real estate 10+ years ago - but the difference now is blockchain and crypto. Blockchain fools people into believing that because they receive a NFT for that piece of virtual waterfront property in a video game it’s actually worth something - but the only “worth” is what someone is willing to pay since it has no real world use like going there on vacation. And, inflated cryptocurrency assets are used to pay for a lot of this crazy virtual stuff. Anyway, the more I think about it the more my head hurts.
It’s a tax dodge transaction. The buyer wanted to reduce exposure to crypto but didn’t want to crash the market and incurred tax liabilities. So they used it as currency to purchase something else.
The trusts are a way to invest in cryptos without having to deal with digital wallets, storing coins, and security. You can also hold a trust in a tax deferred account. If you hold coins, most actions with them are taxable events.
Also, practically everyone involved with cryptos understand that BTC is NOT a replacement for fiat currency. It's real competition is gold as a vehicle for stored value. Also, the Ponzi scheme comment is stupid because nobody or entity runs and controls the BTC blockchain. This is one of the points of BTC.
I don't know much about NFTs, but I believe the creators/artists of NFTs can continue to receive payments on resales. If true, this is a very attractive feature from their POV.
I'm not sure the IRS will see it that way, but we're in uncharted territory and they have to deal with the retroactive changes in last weeks Covid relief bill.
The creators/artists are cashing in big time. But there is no limit to the number of NFTs that can flood the digital universe. Think back to baseball cards - once the packs from dozens of manufacturers started showing up in the check-out aisle at Walmart the entire industry came crashing down. But now it’s so much worse because ANYBODY can create a NFT. Heck, TKR can take this tread and turn it into a NFT.
It's a hybrid 1031. It delays the tax liability, not avoid it. The bigger thing is that it avoids the headline Crypto bulls selling.
You're post is littered with errors.
1. I imagine you're comparting the Bolt to the Model 3 (standard range). MSRP for both is ~$37K. Range is similar, but the model 3 has a smaller pack. Smaller pack = greater efficiency at a lower cost. Which vehicle is more desirable? Which vehicle gives the consumer more bang for their buck?
1a. Why is GM limiting production of the Hummer? They supposedly sold out of a mystery # of vehicles hours after the website went live. Sounds like demand is high. Why limit production?
Tesla costs continue to rise? Where? High end Model S and X are expensive, but Model 3 and Y prices have remained relatively flat with some price increases and cuts over the past 2 years.
Tesla needs more frequent updates? Tesla updates their vehicles faster than anyone, and it's not even close. Model Y saw 13 changes in 3 months last year. Tesla doesn't do model years. Changes happen throughout the year. Cars also get OTA software updates ~1/month. No one else is doing this.
I'm all for other EVs on the road. Tesla can't do it alone. But, why do most people want/have iPhones? The "competition" needs to get serious. OEMs are anchored to their ICE business. It's a big problem for them.
Please stop counting OTA changed as updates... The tesla model lineup is stagnant. It's still benefiting from being a niche maker but will be stagnant. It's at that point when they seriously need to pivot and make REAL changes in design, structure and styling that costs will rise. Tesla basically hasnt had to retool a production line yet.
Regarding the 37k model 3 - you mean the one they basically stopped selling?! Lol c'mon man. Musk sold it to hit a promise and basically cut off access to it.
Great comparison to IPhones... Shittier phones with a nice apple marketing twist driving sales. Meanwhile most users adopt android and majority are samsung - better tech at a fraction of the cost.