I'd think recession fears will have the opposite effect. WTI currently at $101.
OT: Stock and Investment Thread
- Thread starter RU05
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Ya, I still have about 10% cash, and am playing the volatility through near term in/near the money covered calls, so I'm set up for a retest. Not really looking fwd to it though.
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Big rate moves are already expected and baked in:
The market will likely respond positively like it did for the first hike. As inflation peaks and starts to decline, look for ATHs in the 2nd half of 2022. Choppy waters until then.
Lots of folks were predicting $180-$200 oil by now. Not gonna happen. The Russian oil is still making it into the market, but at a reduced price. Also, remember T Boone's famous quote....."the solution to the problem of $100 oil is $100 oil".
I'm eyeing a bunch of plays, but mostly my leveraged ETFs. However, I will add to NVDA, AMZN, and GOOGL at the right price (based on my current CB) and also to a few non-coin crypto plays.
Cash is prudent now, methinks. I'm a short-timer recent retiree. Sold some big gains in BRK-B, having bought a bunch in March '20 at 185-190. Will sit tight and repurchase after it backs down. Got into commodities ETFs in early Feb. Sold off all except GLD. Then did some repurchasing a week ago. Also picked up some SH. Might have to wait a bit for redeploying cash. Patience is needed.
Ya seems it is mostly a rerouting of supply lines. Those countries willing to buy Russian oil get it at a discount, those not willing are paying more.Lots of folks were predicting $180-$200 oil by now. Not gonna happen. The Russian oil is still making it into the market, but at a reduced price. Also, remember T Boone's famous quote....."the solution to the problem of $100 oil is $100 oil".
Can the west get it to the point where no one buys it? Doubtful. Does the west really want that? Doubtful there too.
10% cash is like no cash. I am at about 80% cash, sold most of my AMZN and GOOG at a profit and waiting for a better price to buy. I was fooled into buying the other Techs but reduced my exposure. I think I will basically only trade AMZN, GOOG and AAPL. I hope my high dividends stocks don’t fall too far.
Purchased more 2 years notes this morning. I’m a long time retiree. I don’t want to go back to work when I’m in my 80’s.
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As I recall, you scoffed at my prior posts suggesting multiple 50 bps moves. Anyway, this market is fickle with a capital F. Nothing is baked in.
76% = baked in
It's a great set-up when the market expects the worse possible scenario. The only possible variation is on the upside and then will lead to a nice rally. I'm still not sure about .5%. Lots of folks talked tough in Feb only to settle on a normal .25% hike. All of Powell's comments to date foreshadow a bunch of quarter pointers. We shall see. Once again, I'm just happy to see the market freaking out and predicting the worse.
STNE has been getting some light shine on it of late. Berkshire has a significant stake. ARK in it too, so both ends of the spectrum.
Down a ton off it's highs, did bounce of it's lows though it has given about half of that back. Had a rough 2021 in terms of profits, though it's rev's growth was very good. 2022 is thought to be looking much better.
Down a ton off it's highs, did bounce of it's lows though it has given about half of that back. Had a rough 2021 in terms of profits, though it's rev's growth was very good. 2022 is thought to be looking much better.
It's not a ton, but like I said I have some money tied up in options plays which I will want to transition eventually. Also have some money in some high dividends stocks as well, which I will also look to transition eventually.
You'll see some clarity this afternoon at 2 pm when the Fed speaks. You'll also very likely see a retreating market close.
But where is the baked in level? Closer to the March lows? Or up where it was late last week after that rally?
I'm not sure if anything is ever fully baked in. Thus the market is constantly in flux.
Because of what the Fed says?
I wouldn't be surprised to see a slight dovish pivot off of the hawkish Brainard comments.
It's almost always prudent to buy near the close. As for clarity, today will be helpful, but next week is the March CPI report. You also need to look at things from a political POV. Yes, the Fed is supposed to be "independent", but that's BS. As per direction from the WH, look for the Fed to talk tough, but punch lighter than expected. This means, the WH needs to look good battling inflation, but can't risk tanking the economy with an election 7 months away.
Investors have been whistling by the graveyard re: the Fed. The Fed has been releasing its intent, but investors seem to be ignoring it or not believing it. Fed has to play catch up now, and fast.
Have they though? Prior to this recent rally the Nasdaq was down 20%.
CPI will be up. But where it is, at that measure in time, is not as important as where it will be next. Reminds me of the famous and spot on Gretzky line: "The key is to not skate to where the puck is but to where it will be."
And FYI, Brainard comments were not that hawkish. People are quoting a few words, but much in her talk highlighted the need for steady and methodical hikes, which is normal language for .25%'ers. Powell already said to look to the run of .25%'ers from the mid 90s. That's his working plan.
Also, the balance sheet runoff is BS! There is so much unused money in the banking system that it will take a long time to make a meaningful impact. The Fed Reverse Repo number is about $1.6T. Even if the Fed aggressively runs off their balance sheet by $100B a month, it will still take 16 months to dry up the money that banks are not even using! LOL.
Once again, facts are more important than emotions.
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The market is already there (based on the 10y). The Fed raising rates is mostly meaningless. The market already did the hard work. Watch the market continue to pop as Fed rates go up to match the market.
The CPI will start going down very soon as last year's base affect kicks in.
30 year mortgage over 5%, applications for mortgages down 40%, earnings for Q3 and Q4 expected to be downgraded, prolonged war predicted. I'd tread very carefully this year.
The US isn't in a war. And Russia is already consolidating operations because their military blows.
Kind of funny though, the market dipped last week when the positive employment numbers came in. Why? Because that signals further inflation.
But your #'s suggest peak inflation, and likely decreasing prices. So is it a bad thing?
I'm good with my observations. Being mindful of history and patterns tends to render a cautious approach. This is not a sign of weakness. Being exuberant in this climate? Hmmmmm.... I've seen this dynamic a number of times in my 60+ years. It doesn't end well. But, as the saying goes, "You pays yer money. You makes your choices."
Nah bro, they are actually winning and they are just trying to lure us in.
You have to look at the markets historically. History tends to repeat itself. There are admittedly new factors in this modern economy but my previous post is in line with a prediction of a recession. I don't know what the odds of that happening is but all I'm saying is to stay agile in this market.
He has a different time frame than most humans. I see the old investors have a different view than the youngsters.
History = stocks go up 6 of the last 7 rate hike cycles
I hear you, like I say above, I'm kind of positioned for continued volatility.
I do think the market after a mega 2 year run was poised to take it's medicine in the form of interest rate hikes. And I think it might be poised to take it's medicine in the form of a recession.
Now obviously that medicine would be a short term recession, and not a long term or worse, but it might be what we need.
Even the concerns of a recession will put pressure on oil prices, which is beneficial for the economy.
Interesting push and pulls in all these moves.
As it should be
I was almost completely out of the stock market because I reached all my objectives. I am now buying because I can take the risk
Safety (utilities, staples), pharma and energy bucking the negative trend today. I see WMT, DG, COST in the green. WMT broke out of its lower trading range and testing ATHs. I mentioned dollar stores/WMT are usually safer areas with threat of recession and inflation. COST can be somewhat seen as that too, their member base is quite sticky and loyal.
@RUAldo should be happy with WMT.
@RUAldo should be happy with WMT.