OT: Stock and Investment Thread

Dec 17, 2008
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"Massive outflows from U.S. equity funds are just getting started as the Federal Reserve ramps up its hawkish rhetoric, according to Bank of America Corp. strategists."

"Everyone bearish, but redemptions just starting,” said BofA strategists led by Michael Hartnett, adding that the environment of “extreme inflation” and rates shock is just setting in, as the Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy. “75 basis points is the new 25 basis points,” Hartnett said, referring to the scope of future interest-rate hikes.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bofa-strategists-see-u-equity-093508112.html
It's not today as most sectors are down but kind of surprised that some of that safety/income has had held up well. I expect them to hold up well on a relative basis but they've done just well in general.

I'd think if TINA finally abates at least somewhat after a decade plus of low rates the acceptable yield premium of some of these dividend names (utilities, staples, telcom etc..) would also have to readjust also but really haven't seen that.
 

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,324
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It's not today as most sectors are down but kind of surprised that some of that safety/income has had held up well. I expect them to hold up well on a relative basis but they've done just well in general.

I'd think if TINA finally abates at least somewhat after a decade plus of low rates the acceptable yield premium of some of these dividend names (utilities, staples, telcom etc..) would also have to readjust also but really haven't seen that.
When everyone is so emotionally bearish, now is the time to buy. It always works out well in the end. Looking to buy more closer to the close.
 

RUschool

Heisman
Jan 23, 2004
49,910
14,001
78
When everyone is so emotionally bearish, now is the time to buy. It always works out well in the end. Looking to buy more closer to the close.
Tough day today. I did buy some GOOG but still caution waiting for capitulation. Many of the Techs hit new 52 week low.
 
Dec 17, 2008
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Tough day today. I did buy some GOOG but still caution waiting for capitulation. Many of the Techs hit new 52 week low.
Months ago I mentioned 2400 as an area for GOOGL that I thought wasn't bad so I bought a little today under 2400...about 20% off its highs. But I wouldn't discount that 2000 or even somewhat below as possible.
 

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,324
19,308
113
Tough day today. I did buy some GOOG but still caution waiting for capitulation. Many of the Techs hit new 52 week low.
Plenty of capitulation already. Second day in a row where all sectors are down. That's a very good sign for buying!
 

RUschool

Heisman
Jan 23, 2004
49,910
14,001
78
Months ago I mentioned 2400 as an area for GOOGL that I thought wasn't bad so I bought a little today under 2400...about 20% off its highs. But I wouldn't discount that 2000 or even somewhat below as possible.
I’m ready to hold and even buy more at 2000. Another 100 pts down for AMZN and I’m buying more. Been real conservative only in 10-13% in the market.
 

RUschool

Heisman
Jan 23, 2004
49,910
14,001
78
Plenty of capitulation already. Second day in a row where all sectors are down. That's a very good sign for buying!
Capitulation might be Monday but not enough people scared today. The techs reached the lows but didn’t drastically drop below the previous low. AAPL still holding its price.
 

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,324
19,308
113
Months ago I mentioned 2400 as an area for GOOGL that I thought wasn't bad so I bought a little today under 2400...about 20% off its highs. But I wouldn't discount that 2000 or even somewhat below as possible.
With max fear now expected by the market, this tiniest positive news (or less negative) will set off a multi-week rally. Gotta be ready for the flip.
 

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,324
19,308
113
I’m ready to hold and even buy more at 2000. Another 100 pts down for AMZN and I’m buying more. Been real conservative only in 10-13% in the market.
Bought NVDA, GOOGL, and a few of my leveraged ETFs. Also did an across the board buy for our E-Trade account.

I am eyeing AMZN, but not sure if it will be slower on the upswing than some of the other big boys. Then again, I love the upcoming stock split (and possible listing on the Dow).

FYI - 10-13% isn't going to cut it. These are the days that pay off in the long run. Don't miss out.
 
Dec 17, 2008
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PYPL is another one I have an eye on. That sucker I have some from the 150s and been waiting to finally average it down lol. I said I widen my buy points in volatility and the 80s is where I mentioned I could be looking to add. It's here now but I haven't pulled the trigger yet. I think somewhere between 70 and 85 is where I'll finally add some.
 

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,324
19,308
113
We may see a few bounces but we are trending towards lower highs and lower lows.
That's actually not true (as of now). The year lows are still from Feb. The markets are holding up extremely well with absolute max fear hitting them. Gotta be big-time bullish for 2H of the year and beyond.
 

RUschool

Heisman
Jan 23, 2004
49,910
14,001
78
PYPL is another one I have an eye on. That sucker I have some from the 150s and been waiting to finally average it down lol. I said I widen my buy points in volatility and the 80s is where I mentioned I could be looking to add. It's here now but I haven't pulled the trigger yet. I think somewhere between 70 and 85 is where I'll finally add some.
PYPL was 83 in March 2018.
 

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,324
19,308
113
PYPL is another one I have an eye on. That sucker I have some from the 150s and been waiting to finally average it down lol. I said I widen my buy points in volatility and the 80s is where I mentioned I could be looking to add. It's here now but I haven't pulled the trigger yet. I think somewhere between 70 and 85 is where I'll finally add some.
Why PYPL? Why not SQ or SOFI? I can't figure out which is the best fintech opportunity, so I'm chilling.
 
Dec 17, 2008
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Why PYPL? Why not SQ or SOFI? I can't figure out which is the best fintech opportunity, so I'm chilling.
I've said this before I don't think of PYPL as fintech...I'm quite simple minded. I just see it as a payment processor. In that space, V and MA are my favorites with PYPL a distant 3rd behind them. I traded it successfully when it was higher but another try in the 150s didn't go my way. It makes money, valuation has gotten much better and still think it's a good company and I'm fine holding it. Little peeved at management though.

As far as SQ and SOFI those aren't really on my radar or my kind of stocks. SOFI maybe for a trade because it seems to be in a defined channel so if it hits the bottom of that channel maybe a trade with stop below it but as holdings for the longer term...not the type of stocks for me.
 
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T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
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Beautiful way to end the day! Emotional people needed to get that all out of their systems.
 

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,324
19,308
113
The BIG Tech earnings coming out April 26-28.
From Cramer and Team:

What’s ahead​

Next week promises to be the busiest week of this latest earnings season. Club stocks reporting starts with Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) after the closing bell Tuesday. Boeing (BA) and Humana (HUM) are out before the opening bell Wednesday, and Facebook-parent Meta Platforms (FB), Qualcomm (QCOM), PayPal (PYPL) and Ford (F) hit after the bell. Eli Lilly (LLY) and Linde (LIN) are before the opening bell Thursday, with Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) out after the bell. Chevron (CVX), Abbvie (ABBV) and Honeywell (HON) finish the week before the opening bell Friday.

Here are some other earnings reports and economic numbers to watch in the week ahead:
Monday, April 25
  • Before the bell: Coca-Cola (KO), Philips (PHG), Otis Worldwide (OTIS), Activision (ATVI)
  • After the bell: Whirlpool (WHR), Ameriprise Fin (AMP), Universal Health (UHS), Crown (CCK), WR Berkley (WRB), Packaging Corp (PKG)
Tuesday, April 26
  • Before the bell: PepsiCo (PEP), Centene (CNC), Valero Energy (VLO), UPS (UPS), Archer-Daniels (ADM), General Electric (GE), Raytheon (RTX), Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD), Novartis (NVS), 3M (MMM), Sherwin-Williams (SHW), Waste Management (WM)
  • After the bell: General Motors (GM), Chubb (CB), Capital One (COF), Mondelez (MDLZ), Visa (V), Texas Instruments (TXN), Chipotle (CMG), Edwards Lifesciences (EW), Teradyne (TER), Exact Sciences (EXAS)
  • 8:30 a.m. ET: Durable goods orders
  • 10 a.m. ET: New home sales
Wednesday, April 27
  • Before the bell: United Micro (UMC), T-Mobile (TMUS), Cenovus (CVE), Bunge (BG), General Dynamics (GD), Penske Auto (PAG), Kraft Heinz (KHC), Fiserv (FISV), Spotify (SPOT), Harley-Davidson (HOG)
  • After the bell: Molina Health (MOL), Amgen (AMGN), CH Robinson (CHRW), Avnet (AVT), Aflac (AFL), O’Reilly Auto (ORLY), Equinix (EQIX), Las Vegas Sands (LVS), Matel (MAT), Netgear (NTGR)
  • 10 a.m. ET: Pending home sales
Thursday, April 28
  • Before the bell: Comcast (CMCSA), Merck (MRK), Caterpillar (CAT), Thermo Fisher (TMO), Sanofi (SNY), Northrop Grumman (NOC), McDonald’s (MCD), Mastercard (MA), Southwest (LUV), Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), American Electric (AEP), Domino’s Pizza (DPZ)
  • After the bell: Intel (INTC), Gilead (GILD), US Steel (X), Western Digital (WDC), Celanese (CE), Dexcom (DXCM), Seagen (SGEN), Zendesk (ZEN)
Friday, April 29
  • Before the bell: Exxon (XOM), Phillips 66 (PSX), Charter Comm (CHTR), LyondellBasell (LYB), Bristol-Myers (BMY), AstraZeneca (AZN), Magna (MGA), Newell Brands (NWL)
  • 8:30 a.m. ET: Personal income and spending
 
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T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
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Anyone invested in / consider buy-write funds? Each fund (RYLD, QYLD, QYLG...) aims to track different indices. And, with net yields of 7% - 12%, they might be a nice semi-conservative haven.

Global X Funds - Global X Russell 2000 Covered Call ETF is an exchange traded fund launched and managed by Global X Management Company LLC. The fund invests in public equity markets of the United States. The fund invests directly and through derivatives in stocks of companies operating across diversified sectors. It uses derivatives such as options to create its portfolio. It invests in growth and value stocks of small-cap companies. The fund seeks to track the performance of the Cboe Russell 2000 BuyWrite Index, by using representative sampling technique. Global X Funds - Global X Russell 2000 Covered Call ETF was formed on April 17, 2019 and is domiciled in the United States. The investment seeks to provide investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the Cboe Russell 2000 BuyWrite Index. The fund invests at least 80% of its total assets in component securities of the index or in investments that have economic character.
Interesting stuff. I don't know anything about buy-write funds.
 
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T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,324
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Lets wait until next week before declaring capitulation
S&P oscillator shows a massively oversold market. Emotions and fear are sky high. Sad thing is, there is nowhere else to put money. Bonds? Getting trucked. Real estate? Massive bubble. Cash? Just bleeding off due to inflation. Lots of folks are going to miss the rebound.....whether it is Monday, next month, or next year.

Sticking to the plan with our retirement accounts and building positions in my fun account to prepare for the turnaround.
 

RUinPinehurst

All-American
Aug 27, 2011
8,396
7,918
113
Shiller PE ratio for the S&P 500:

Current: 33.63 -0.96 (-2.77%)
4:00 PM EDT, Fri Apr 22

Mean:16.94
Median:15.87
Min:4.78(Dec 1920)
Max:44.19(Dec 1999)
Price earnings ratio is based on average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years, known as the Cyclically Adjusted PE Ratio (CAPE Ratio), Shiller PE Ratio, or PE 10.
 

rurahrah000

All-Conference
Aug 21, 2010
3,249
2,204
88
S&P oscillator shows a massively oversold market. Emotions and fear are sky high. Sad thing is, there is nowhere else to put money. Bonds? Getting trucked. Real estate? Massive bubble. Cash? Just bleeding off due to inflation. Lots of folks are going to miss the rebound.....whether it is Monday, next month, or next year.

Sticking to the plan with our retirement accounts and building positions in my fun account to prepare for the turnaround.
Hopefully no one with long term horizon is pulling out of the stock market. Folks with automatic investments in 401k and personal investment accounts hopefully are not changing their plans. I agree that 10 years from now, the market will go up and this will be yet another blip. However, for the short term investors, this volatility continues to be boon times. My returns for this year have blown the market returns.

P.S. It was great rolling out of the hospital stock options just 2 days before the crash today. Remember, if options run up before an earnings report or any anticipated catalyst event, nothing wrong in taking profit.
 

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,324
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Hopefully no one with long term horizon is pulling out of the stock market.
^^^^^ Most important lesson for investors. Traders can have their fun with volatility, but I look at corrections and crashes as massive long-term opportunities. I definitely don't have the time or knowledge to be a short-termer. However, I want to maximize these downturns. So, enter the leveraged ETFs. I can have my cake and eat it to.....or at least, that's the plan!

If you are into volatility, wouldn't leveraged etfs be good tool for you to use? I made 50% on the well time SOXL run!
 
Last edited:

rurahrah000

All-Conference
Aug 21, 2010
3,249
2,204
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^^^^^ Most important lesson for investors. Traders can have their fun with volatility, but I look at corrections and crashes as massive long-term opportunities. I have definitely that I don't have the time or knowledge to be a short-termer. However, I want to maximize these downturns. So, enter the leveraged ETFs. I can have my cake and eat it to.....or at least, that's the plan!

If you are into volatility, wouldn't leveraged etfs be good tool for you to use? I made 50% on the well time SOXL run!
I use options in leveraged ETF's to generate substantial alpha particularly in times of high volatility. I guess I could sell put options and be happy to own the TQQQ, etc. Let me think about it.
 

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,324
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I use options in leveraged ETF's to generate substantial alpha particularly in times of high volatility. I guess I could sell put options and be happy to own the TQQQ, etc. Let me think about it.
Interested to hear what think after analyzing them. The daily 3x (or 2x) math is really powerful and benefits you on the upswing. It's so strong that you don't need to "time" the bottom that well, just jump in during a correction and it will turn out very lucrative. I'm holding extra cash in this account to improve the CB if the market goes down a meaningful amount more.....is this a hedge? :)

My fun account is now: TQQQ, UPRO, USD, UWM, NVDA, and GOOGL. Also about 25% cash.
 

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,324
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I "think" you mean "10,000," given your history. "LOL"!
I will be conservative, S&P 10,000 by the end of 2024. Also look for Dow 50,000 and Daq 20,000 around this timeline. 😁

Seriously, I don't know exactly when it will happen, but once inflation starts inflecting down, hold onto your hats!!!!! Inflation heading down is coming within a month or two. It's almost a mathematical certainty due to the base effect with Q2 2021 becoming the denominator instead of the COVID impacted 2020.
 

tom1944

All-American
Feb 22, 2008
6,596
6,971
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It is understandable but regrettably that people bail out of a falling market.

For a novice investor seeing your account go down in value while your contributions increase is difficult

They cannot see the lower price actually benefits them if they do not plan to access the account until a much later date
 
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