OT: Stock and Investment Thread

RUAldo

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RUinPinehurst

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RUDead

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I guess Brian Cornell of Target, prob one of the best CEOs in the biz, mismanaged the quarter as well. Just wait until Cramer does a 180 today because he loves Cornell and it’s obvious what’s happening in retail. The Walmart quarter was completely blown out of proportion given the current environment.


If Walmart and Target can't manage this environment then I don't know who can.

Revenue is up but how much of that number is inflation? Bottom line revenue growth isn't keeping up with inflation/costs.
 
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T2Kplus20

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RU05

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Can we construe WMT and TGT seeing tightening margins along with large inventory surpluses, as a positive sign for the economy?

Limited supply and high margins, which had been the story for 2 years, sounds to me like an inflation driver, this sounds like the oppositie.

Granted the fuel prices underlying all this are clearly an inflationary. But the last line of the chain is finally pulling back.
 

RUschool

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Looks like their leadership isn't as good as Home Depot's or Costco's.
After HD earnings and forecast came out yesterday, stock went up 4 points but today pre market down 7.5 points. Market looks like it will continue to go down no matter the earnings. I noticed that for several stocks, up after earnings but down the following day.

Fighting inflation and increasing rate will deflate the market. Still waiting for 3600.
 

T2Kplus20

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After HD earnings and forecast came out yesterday, stock went up 4 points but today pre market down 7.5 points. Market looks like it will continue to go down no matter the earnings. I noticed that for several stocks, up after earnings but down the following day.

Fighting inflation and increasing rate will deflate the market. Still waiting for 3600.
Solid earnings for Lowe's as well. Investors continue to act like emotional children. However, common sense always comes back to rule the day.
 

T2Kplus20

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Can we construe WMT and TGT seeing tightening margins along with large inventory surpluses, as a positive sign for the economy?

Limited supply and high margins, which had been the story for 2 years, sounds to me like an inflation driver, this sounds like the oppositie.

Granted the fuel prices underlying all this are clearly an inflationary. But the last line of the chain is finally pulling back.
Sounds like things happened too quickly for these companies to adjust. Online and foot traffic is strong, sales are strong, etc. Looks for adjustments next quarter and much better earnings.
 

RU05

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After HD earnings and forecast came out yesterday, stock went up 4 points but today pre market down 7.5 points. Market looks like it will continue to go down no matter the earnings. I noticed that for several stocks, up after earnings but down the following day.

Fighting inflation and increasing rate will deflate the market.
Despite their strong earnings, I'm thinking WMT's and TGT's earnings are weighing on HD.
 

RUDead

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Solid earnings for Lowe's as well. Investors continue to act like emotional children. However, common sense always comes back to rule the day.

Lowe's and Home Depot still riding the housing boom. I don't think they are comparable to Walmart and Target.
 
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RU05

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TJX jumps on a good report.

If TGT and WMT have too much inventory TJX should benefit down the line. Not sure if that is baked into the jump.
 

RU05

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Lowe's and Home Depot still riding the housing boom. I don't think they are comparable to Walmart and Target.
They are all a measure of the consumer though. But it is good to parse the similarities as well as the differences.
 
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RU05

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To be fair, that’s really all he can say after the results that came out.
Agree, there can be smoke in that statement.

I think the lynch pin right now is fuel prices. WTI (Jun ) at $112. If it's $130 in a couple months then inflation continues to be a story. If it can at least stabilize, then we will probably be fairly positive.
 

RU05

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+1
Very good interview with the TGT CEO on CNBC this morning. Buy the dip?
I think TJX might be the better buy. Up today but still significantly off it's highs. Taking advantage of surpluses, people looking for bargains, and people getting back out to stores. 60ish, where it is now, is it's precovid levels.
 
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Joey Bags

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Agree, there can be smoke in that statement.

I think the lynch pin right now is fuel prices. WTI (Jun ) at $112. If it's $130 in a couple months then inflation continues to be a story. If it can at least stabilize, then we will probably be fairly positive.
The problem is most industries are not geared for $100+ Oil right now and are still adjusting to that. Even if things stabilize in the low 100s, those costs are going to be passed along to the consumer side which will also keep inflation running along.

It’s also important to consider that just because prices stabilize across various markets doesn’t mean everything is back to normal. Sustained inflated prices have a massive detrimental effect as well even if they track along historical inflation metrics going forward.
 
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RU05

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"Markdown pressures will continue to hit margins"

Again this sounds like a good thing for the economy, if not for the companies themselves.

Also note there has been a shift away from Bike's TV's and appliances(see pull fwd) to things like toys luggage and food&drink.

As per Toys, perhaps Mattel is a good play here?
 
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RU05

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On oil production.

"inability of the world to respond to the demand" says companies are "moving heaven and earth".

Yet this was from most recent qtrly report from Diamondback.

Diamondback CEO Travis Stice says while Russia's invasion of Ukraine has caused price spikes and uncertainty in global supply, the company doesn't "feel that today is the appropriate time to begin spending dollars that would not equate to additional barrels until multiple quarters from today."

Is Diamondback the only one holding back, or is their CEO the only actually admitting they are holding back.
 

T2Kplus20

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On oil production.

"inability of the world to respond to the demand" says companies are "moving heaven and earth".

Yet this was from most recent qtrly report from Diamondback.

Diamondback CEO Travis Stice says while Russia's invasion of Ukraine has caused price spikes and uncertainty in global supply, the company doesn't "feel that today is the appropriate time to begin spending dollars that would not equate to additional barrels until multiple quarters from today."

Is Diamondback the only one holding back, or is their CEO the only actually admitting they are holding back.
Everyone is holding back investing to increase production and I don't blame them. This is a temporary price spike which will end once Putin is done Putin'ing. Also, the long-term demand is oil is lower, not higher.
 
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RU05

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Everyone is holding back investing to increase production and I don't blame them. This is a temporary price spike which will end once Putin is done Putin'ing. Also, the long-term demand is oil is lower, not higher.
Interestingly, these high oil prices now probably speed up the transition to EV.
 

RUschool

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Interestingly, these high oil prices now probably speed up the transition to EV.
California $6 gallon. The SUV must cost $100 to fill up.

I believe the US is slow compared to the world to adopt EV vehicles.
 
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RU05

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BTC back below $29 K. Maybe worth a trade if it get to $28?


WTI(jun) down to $110, so that's good.
 

RU05

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California $6 gallon. The SUV must cost $100 to fill up.

I believe the US is slow compared to the world to adopt EV vehicles.
Slow compared to Europe at least. And Europe has had higher gas prices then us in recent years I believe.

Not sure where China is in terms of EV adoption. I know it looks like they are heading that way, but not sure where they are right now.

And my Subaru sedan cost $70 to fill here in NJ. So I'm sure SUV's, especially in Ca are up over $100.
 

RU05

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Everyone is holding back investing to increase production and I don't blame them. This is a temporary price spike which will end once Putin is done Putin'ing. Also, the long-term demand is oil is lower, not higher.
I will say that unless Putin get's the boot, we will continue to sanction Russia for a long while after Ukraine drives them out.
 

RUschool

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Slow compared to Europe at least. And Europe has had higher gas prices then us in recent years I believe.

Not sure where China is in terms of EV adoption. I know it looks like they are heading that way, but not sure where they are right now.

And my Subaru sedan cost $70 to fill here in NJ. So I'm sure SUV's, especially in Ca are up over $100.

As a result, China’s policymakers planned to phase out the subsidies at the end of 2020 and instead impose a mandate on car manufacturers. Simply stated, the mandate requires that a certain percent of all vehicles sold by a manufacturer each year must be battery-powered. To avoid financial penalties, every year manufacturers must earn a stipulated number of points, which are awarded for each EV produced based on a complex formula that takes into account range, energy efficiency, performance, and more. The requirements get tougher over time, with a goal of having EVs make up 40 percent of all car sales by 2030.


You just have to look at some of our threads to see there are significant number against wind, solar power and EV vehicles in the USA similar to vaccines. Freedom of choice.
 
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RUschool

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I think my next car with be a hybrid but I purchased a new car in 2020. The next car will be my last car, maybe in 2024-25.
 

RU05

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SQ with a price to book under 3x. It's a gosh darn value stock.

SOFI even moreso at 1.2. Stock is up 4% today bucking the trend.
 

RU in IM

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California $6 gallon. The SUV must cost $100 to fill up.

I believe the US is slow compared to the world to adopt EV vehicles.


I paid $100 to fill up my Ford Windstar (26 gallon tank) when gas prices hit $4 a gallon about 15 years ago. So inflation adjusted, $4.50 is much cheaper than the previous peak.
 

RU05

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I paid $100 to fill up my Ford Windstar (26 gallon tank) when gas prices hit $4 a gallon about 15 years ago. So inflation adjusted, $4.50 is much cheaper than the previous peak.
That $4 a gallon 15 years ago did help crack the economy.

So while it may not be as high in real dollars, I think it's fair to say the current prices are a real detriment.