OT: Stock and Investment Thread

[RU05]

Going OT but this has been my place for under the radar Russian/Ukraine talk. And it does have relevance to this thread.

But anyone see the video of Putin all twitchy while with the president of some stan country? Between that and the blankets on the leg at the Victory day parade. Something is definitely up with him. I'd love to see him to stand trial for his actions, but I'd be fine with him just keeling over.

 

[T2Kplus20]

I bet more hedge funds follow suit. Not good for the overall market.

Most hedge funds are garbage. I believe 4,000 of them closed down over the past 5 years. Think about that. In a raging bull market.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Going OT but this has been my place for under the radar Russian/Ukraine talk. And it does have relevance to this thread.

But anyone the video of Putin all twitchy while with the president of some stan country? Between that and the blankets on the leg at the Victory day parade. Something is definitely up with him. I'd love to see him to stand trial for his actions, but I'd be fine with him just keeling over.

He seems unwell. Whether this is a chronic issue or just massive stress from screwing the pooch and embarrassing himself, no idea. However, Russia is known for abrupt leadership changes.

Think about how the market will react if such news breaks. This is why you can't be on the sidelines with cash.

 

[RUschool]

CSCO down big after hours 13% and TSLA ready to break 700, watch out below.

 

[T2Kplus20]

CSCO down big after hours 13% and TSLA ready to break 700, watch out below.

TSLA is a BIG buy under $700. I will add to my position. I have been doing some math on SSO (Proshares S&P 500 2x). If the 500 gets to $3800, I may swap out VOO with SSO in one of our accounts to maximize the rebound.

Now is money-making time.

 

[RUAldo]

Will be interesting to see how the talking heads address TSLA when it finally comes under serious pressure - especially since they had no problem pumping it when they were piggybacking the retail traders that dumped all that stimulus money into Musk’s bank account

 

[RU05]

CSCO down big after hours 13% and TSLA ready to break 700, watch out below.

Shanghai shutdowns big drag for CSCO.

 

[RUAldo]

TSLA is a BIG buy under $700. I will add to my position. I have been doing some math on SSO (Proshares S&P 500 2x). If the 500 gets to $3800, I may swap out VOO with SSO in one of our accounts to maximize the rebound.

Now is money-making time.

TSLA is the next to collapse…supply chain woes plus the rich not feeling so rich anymore will slow demand

 

[RUAldo]

TSLA is a BIG buy under $700. I will add to my position. I have been doing some math on SSO (Proshares S&P 500 2x). If the 500 gets to $3800, I may swap out VOO with SSO in one of our accounts to maximize the rebound.

Now is money-making time.

I thought you said you were fully invested? If so, how do you buy ever week on dips?

 

[T2Kplus20]

I thought you said you were fully invested? If so, how do you buy ever week on dips?

Tons of disposable income, annual bonuses from March, RSUs vesting every quarter, etc. Plenty of new money flows in every week. Also, we have been investing a series of maturing CDs, since we have plenty of cash in our security accounts (no need for more).

 

[T2Kplus20]

TSLA is the next to collapse…supply chain woes plus the rich not feeling so rich anymore will slow demand

The rich are making more money than ever. Demand for Tesla EVs is increasing.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Market is way oversold (and this is before today):

 

[RUAldo]

The rich are making more money than ever. Demand for Tesla EVs is increasing.

Not anymore…Josh Brown had a great segment this evening on CNBC basically saying the Fed won’t rest until the rich feel poor because that’s the only thing that will stop the real estate and auto markets. Made a comment that people only buy stuff like boats when they feel rich.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Not anymore…Josh Brown had a great segment this evening on CNBC basically saying the Fed won’t rest until the rich feel poor because that’s the only thing that will stop the real estate and auto markets. Made a comment that people only buy stuff like boats when they feel rich.

Not gonna work. The rich (i.e., not the ULTRA RICH) get their money via income, not equity. Income is growing.

FYI, inflation crested last week and is starting to head down. The Fed will start pulling back on their hawkish-ness soon. Rates are going to come in lower than expected and what does that mean for the market? #kaboom

 

[RUAldo]

Not gonna work. The rich (i.e., not the ULTRA RICH) get their money via income, not equity. Income is growing.

Totally disagree - 401Ks and investment accounts are what ultimately lead rich people to overspend on everything because that’s where disposable income of the rich is typically diverted. They don’t buy shore houses because they got a 4.5% raise. They buys shore houses when they see their investment accounts skyrocket.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Totally disagree - 401Ks and investment accounts are what ultimately lead rich people to overspend on everything because that’s where disposable income of the rich is typically diverted. They don’t buy shore houses because they got a 4.5% raise. They buys shore houses when they see their investment accounts skyrocket.

401ks are out of sight, out of mind for the majority of people (especially those that are money smart). Rich people are rich day to day due to income. And income is booming!

 

[RU05]

The rich are making more money than ever. Demand for Tesla EVs is increasing.

Ya zero signs of slumping demand for TSLA's.

Supply chain issues could continue to be an issue, especially with the Shanghai shutdown, but through this whole post covid stretch TSLA has navigated better then anyone.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Ya zero signs of slumping demand for TSLA's.

Supply chain issues could continue to be an issue, especially with the Shanghai shutdown, but through this whole post covid stretch TSLA has navigated better then anyone.

I'll be patient and greedy as emotional CLs continue to sell, but TSLA is on the top of my buy list. I want more shares!

 

[RU05]

Not anymore…Josh Brown had a great segment this evening on CNBC basically saying the Fed won’t rest until the rich feel poor because that’s the only thing that will stop the real estate and auto markets. Made a comment that people only buy stuff like boats when they feel rich.

Noted this a couple weeks ago, but new car sales are way down over the past 2 years because of supply chain issues.

I haven't checked the numbers but I have to imagine the average age of a car in the US is significantly above average.

The demand for new cars should remain very strong.

 

[RUinPinehurst]

Shiller PE ratio for the S&P 500:
30.89 -1.30 (-4.04%)
4:00 PM EDT, Wed May 18

Mean:	16.94
Median:	15.87
Min:	4.78	(Dec 1920)
Max:	44.19	(Dec 1999)

 

[Steve91562]

Shiller PE ratio for the S&P 500:
30.89 -1.30 (-4.04%)
4:00 PM EDT, Wed May 18

Mean:	16.94
Median:	15.87
Min:	4.78	(Dec 1920)
Max:	44.19	(Dec 1999)

The QE day of reckoning is here. Artificially low rates always creates assets bubbles, and we've had 10+ years of such rates. The Fed increased the money supply by 40% -- inflation! Rising rates, balance sheet roll off. This will result in a revision to the mean. Although there's a lot of "free" money sloshing around the tank, that will probably keep the bloated boat afloat.

 

[RUAldo]

Ya zero signs of slumping demand for TSLA's.

Supply chain issues could continue to be an issue, especially with the Shanghai shutdown, but through this whole post covid stretch TSLA has navigated better then anyone.

Hyundai/Kia just announced a $16B EV investment. In a deep recession people lean towards lower cost alternatives. I’m just saying I don’t think Tesla demand will increase from current/previous levels if the economy continues down this path.

 

[Steve91562]

Market is way oversold (and this is before today):

Not even close to oversold. Revision to the means possible an S&P below 3000. Historically high inflation that will continue through the year. The Fed increased the money supply by 40% over three years. That's more then the last twenty years! More money chasing finite goods, and for a number of reasons the quantity of those goods can't be increased. Artificially low rates always create assets bubbles, and we've had 10+ years of such rates. Asset bubbles in stocks. Now an asset bubble in real estate and commodities. Supply chain hiccups, war. Rates rising and that will continue to rise much higher. No more "free"money for unprofitable corporations. Rates generally take 10-24 months to effect demand, and rates usually have to raised to the level of inflation. The Fed soon to be rolling off its' balance sheet. Send bond yields higher, competition for stocks. Profits being squeezed, purses tightened. No more Fed Put. No more TINA. Soon no more FOMO. No, it'lll go much lower. This is a major market bubble being corrected, akin to the 2000 dot com bust. It may take a long time to unwind.

 

[RUAldo]

Not even close to oversold. Revision to the means possible an S&P below 3000. Historically high inflation that will continue through the year. The Fed increased the money supply by 40% over three years. That's more then the last twenty years! More money chasing finite goods, and for a number of reasons the quantity of those goods can't be increased. Artificially low rates always create assets bubbles, and we've had 10+ years of such rates. Asset bubbles in stocks. Now an asset bubble in real estate and commodities. Supply chain hiccups, war. Rates rising and that will continue to rise much higher. No more "free"money for unprofitable corporations. Rates generally take 10-24 months to effect demand, and rates usually have to raised to the level of inflation. The Fed soon to be rolling off its' balance sheet. Send bond yields higher, competition for stocks. Profits being squeezed, purses tightened. No more Fed Put. No more TINA. Soon no more FOMO. No, it'lll go much lower. This is a major market bubble being corrected, akin to the 2000 dot com bust. It may take a long time to unwind.

Stop being so emotional LOL…BTW, I totally agree.

 

[RU in IM]

I'll be patient and greedy as emotional CLs continue to sell, but TSLA is on the top of my buy list. I want more shares!

Patient? No, Greedy, yes. You have grabbed the falling knife for 4 straight months on the countless dips. But, with that being said, I have made many strategic purchases on the big dips. Not sure where to go at this point, as I still have a majority on the sideline. (But I am older and retiring soon. You buying today is not as big a risk as it is for me.(

 

[RUinPinehurst]

2020's COVID impact aside, since 1926 the average Bear market lasted 23 months. One year later, post-Bear, the markets gained 49%, on average.

So where's the current bottom? For the S&P, 3500? 3000? 2500?

Senor Buffet once observed:
“The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.”

Going to be a loooong summer....

 

[Jtung230]

The rich are making more money than ever. Demand for Tesla EVs is increasing.

The rich don’t buy Tesla. $6 oil don’t bother them but fake leather and plastic does. For Tesla, it’s all about the upper middle class or wanna-bes.

 

[Jtung230]

TSLA is a BIG buy under $700. I will add to my position. I have been doing some math on SSO (Proshares S&P 500 2x). If the 500 gets to $3800, I may swap out VOO with SSO in one of our accounts to maximize the rebound.

Now is money-making time.

Does Morningstar think that’s a good idea? Like I said in an earlier post, there is a fine line between investing and gambling. I see that CW has rubbed off on you.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Not even close to oversold. Revision to the means possible an S&P below 3000. Historically high inflation that will continue through the year. The Fed increased the money supply by 40% over three years. That's more then the last twenty years! More money chasing finite goods, and for a number of reasons the quantity of those goods can't be increased. Artificially low rates always create assets bubbles, and we've had 10+ years of such rates. Asset bubbles in stocks. Now an asset bubble in real estate and commodities. Supply chain hiccups, war. Rates rising and that will continue to rise much higher. No more "free"money for unprofitable corporations. Rates generally take 10-24 months to effect demand, and rates usually have to raised to the level of inflation. The Fed soon to be rolling off its' balance sheet. Send bond yields higher, competition for stocks. Profits being squeezed, purses tightened. No more Fed Put. No more TINA. Soon no more FOMO. No, it'lll go much lower. This is a major market bubble being corrected, akin to the 2000 dot com bust. It may take a long time to unwind.

Oversold. PEs are down to average levels for large caps. Small and mid caps are at historic 20 year lows. Growth/tech have the same valuations as traditional value stocks now. Don't believe the fear porn out there by shorters.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Patient? No, Greedy, yes. You have grabbed the falling knife for 4 straight months on the countless dips. But, with that being said, I have made many strategic purchases on the big dips. Not sure where to go at this point, as I still have a majority on the sideline. (But I am older and retiring soon. You buying today is not as big a risk as it is for me.(

Each month has had clear big dips and until recently, pretty similar dips. When new money keeps flowing in, you need to keep buying since you never know when this amazing opportunity will end. In 15 years from now, whether all my shares were bought at the "bottom" or not is practically pointless.

Keep your eyes on the big picture, not the emotional day to day silliness.

 

[T2Kplus20]

2020's COVID impact aside, since 1926 the average Bear market lasted 23 months. One year later, post-Bear, the markets gained 49%, on average.

So where's the current bottom? For the S&P, 3500? 3000? 2500?

Senor Buffet once observed:
“The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.”

Going to be a loooong summer....

The bottom is S&P 1000!!!!! This is one of the best CL posts in a long time.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Does Morningstar think that’s a good idea? Like I said in an earlier post, there is a fine line between investing and gambling. I see that CW has rubbed off on you.

You need to explain this post more. Are you talking about TSLA or SSO?

 

[RUAldo]

Hilarious:

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/19/tes...=iosappshare|com.apple.UIKit.activity.Message

 

[Steve91562]

Stop being so emotional LOL…BTW, I totally agree.

Not emotional, just macro economic data. Core and wage inflation continues to increase. The Fed doesn't dare support the market until inflation gets under control and that will likely take years to get it to 2% CPI. The Fed admits to that. Not talking about you but most haven't figured out what a big change it will be for the Fed not support the market, as it has been with artificially low rate and QE for the last 15 or so years. Hate cliche's but don't fight the Fed, right? As I said, it take awhile for this market to unwind, but the assets bubble is deflating, similar to the 2000 dot com bust. Not a perfect analogy of course; some unknowns like all the "free" cash on the sidelines which could support the bloated market, but even that will contract as the Fed runs off its' balance sheet. Not saying sell everything, that obviously rarely works, but the downside pressures are fairly significant.

Oversold. PEs are down to average levels for large caps. Small and mid caps are at historic 20 year lows. Growth/tech have the same valuations as traditional value stocks now. Don't believe the fear porn out there by shorters.

Yes, but the "E" part of PE will contract, just like you saw with Walmart and Target this week.

 

[RUinPinehurst]

The bottom is S&P 1000!!!!! This is one of the best CL posts in a long time.

If nothing else, you're consistent. Keep calm and carry on. Buy the dips via your endless supply of capital.

Fyi... what's funny about the pic you shared is the tag line it features: "This time the sky really is falling." You may need an editor....

 

[RUDead]

Not emotional, just macro economic data. Core and wage inflation continues to increase. The Fed doesn't dare support the market until inflation gets under control and that will likely take years to get it to 2% CPI. The Fed admits to that. Not talking about you but most have figured out what a big change it will be for the Fed not support the market as it has been doing for the last 15 or so years. Hate cliche's but don't fight the Fed, right? As I said, it take awhile for this market to unwind, but the assets bubbler is deflating, similar to the 2000 dot com bust.



Yes, but the "E" part of PE will contract, just like you saw with Walmart and Target.

He thinks the E is a static number. Doesn't realize its changing for the worse and will continue to put pressure on stocks.

 

[RUDead]

ARKK held up well relative to the NASDAQ yesterday. Finding support at these levels.

 

[RUschool]

Not emotional, just macro economic data. Core and wage inflation continues to increase. The Fed doesn't dare support the market until inflation gets under control and that will likely take years to get it to 2% CPI. The Fed admits to that. Not talking about you but most have figured out what a big change it will be for the Fed not support the market as it has been doing for the last 15 or so years. Hate cliche's but don't fight the Fed, right? As I said, it take awhile for this market to unwind, but the assets bubbler is deflating, similar to the 2000 dot com bust.



Yes, but the "E" part of PE will contract, just like you saw with Walmart and Target.

It’s as simply as DON’T FIGHT THE FED.

 

[RU05]

The 4 worst years of inflation prior to this run occurred between 1979-1982.

The S&P returns in those years were 18%-32%- negative 5%- 21%.

So if we want to compare era's this year might be akin to 1981, with a negative return(we are currently at negative 17% so some catch up is likely in this comparison), but overall the market did well during that run of inflation.

I think where you are in the market is also important to consider. I'll look deeper but I bet oil companies did quite well then, and they are doing quite well now as well.

 

[RU05]

ARKK held up well relative to the NASDAQ yesterday. Finding support at these levels.

BTC as well, hanging above $29K.

I've been using this as my overnight-early morning barometer.