Yes, the market is less than 5%. One reason I generally don’t like mutual funds/ETF but I have some because I like to take a rest from the market sometimes. Individual stocks that I look at are down at least 10% and like it better at 15-20% down. I am anxiously awaiting the temp correction. Trump causes a lot more fluctuations and 10-20% ain’t large for him.
Buffett's cash reserve is a fallacy. Based on BRK's market cap, the % cash on hand is well within norms of the past several decades.
When you amass that much cash you can afford to wait around.
Couple important facts for the discussion. While I own BRK.B in my custom stock basket, it has barely beat the VOO since the GFC. There are tons of funds and indexes that has whooped its ***. IIRC, the 13F is a snapshot of the last full quarter plus 45 days (i.e., trades can be as old as 135 days ago). So, Berkshire's selling of the SPY and VOO was clearly the wrong decision due to its ATH a few days ago. Berkshire has been pretty bearish over the past 2 years and got that wrong as well.
I don’t actual watch what Buffet does but he doesn’t just buy and hold. The fact that he is selling both ETF means he thinks there a dip coming in the market but he as well as everyone doesn’t exactly know when it’s going to happen. He can afford to wait 2-3 years unlike everyone else. Timing the market doesn’t mean moving 100% to cash or stock, it might be moving 15-40% of your assets to stocks or a safer investment. It all depends on your needs and tolerance. Some of the general rules of investments are for the general public who don’t invest the time that people on this board do and are generally less educated in investing.
It's all about timing, always, but.... different dynamics for institutional investors, holding companies (like BRK), mutual and exchange traded funds vs individual investors. Individuals are best served by long-duration (time in market) investment in broad indexes, mixing equities and bonds, at ratios dependent upon their age and amassed assets. Once the individual investor reaches or approaches retirement, things change. The ratio of stocks/bonds transitions along the way: 90/10, 80/20, 70/30, 60/40, 50/50, 40/60, 30/70, 20/80, 10/90. So making adjustments is SOP. If the equity market is at ATHs with lofty valuations and profit forecasts, and Treasuries (for example) are returning 5%, it is THE TIME to transition rebalance. Cast this as "market timing" if you must. But "buy and hold" really doesn't mean hold "forever."
No, not necessarily. They may have sold to buy more OXY or jump into another stock (which might have happened already and we won't know for another 3 months).
Buffet was only able to make those great deal with the banks and government during the 2008 Great Recession because he had the cash on hand.
Those moves were from 45-135 days ago. That new cash could have been used already.
I certainly don't but Buffet is also not infallible.
Yet he sold Delta near the Covid lows.
I was green early too.
Missed on HOOD under $50 this morning. Will wait to see if it drop back below. Are you still holding SERV? Nice pullback for that one as well.
Was never in on SERV, just an observer, I do own OUST which sells parts to SERV. And they've pulled back as well. I'm still in the green though, and not looking to add.
Good thoughts. I didn't buy anything today, but will be eyeing them closely tomorrow - PLTR, HOOD, and SERV. Also BBAI. That one is back below $6.
I sold all SERV and took profits. If it drops further I may buy back in.
Keep an eye on NOW. They may be a bigger AI software winner than CRM. But honestly, can't go wrong with any of those names.
Love BRK.B. Doing very well with it over the past year or two.
Don't take offense. It's your money.Love BRK.B. Doing very well with it over the past year or two.
FYI - comparing AI to the dot.com era is dumb as hell. Most companies leading the way with AI are making more money than ever in the history of the world. As compared to 1999/dot.com when 17 of the top 20 Nasdaq companies were unprofitable. Care to restate your position?
Don't ignore basic facts and you won't be corrected. Regardless, always interested in your opinion.
GOOG PE 23 MSFT PE 32 META PE 27 and I’m still cautious. Yes, some stocks on this board are speculating but I’m sure they are only putting in a small amount.
Be careful looking at PE’s when a lot of the money spent by these companies has been capitalized, not expensed. In many cases, capitalized costs end up being amortized quicker, or written down. If that happens, earnings could change quickly.
My feelings is there’s one more time, when the Techs rise for the first quarter earnings, and then crashes when the earnings comes out. I’ll be out of Tech stocks by April or May. Tom Lee is still convinced buyers will come back into the market.
Q4 earnings have been outstanding. Highest ever and beating already high expectations by about 5%. Obviously, this is being led by big tech.
Thought you said sales, revenues, margins don’t matter?Love BRK.B. Doing very well with it over the past year or two.
FYI - comparing AI to the dot.com era is dumb as hell. Most companies leading the way with AI are making more money than ever in the history of the world. As compared to 1999/dot.com when 17 of the top 20 Nasdaq companies were unprofitable. Care to restate your position?
Don't yell at me. Feel free to reply to Pinehurst. Regardless, you know that sales, revenues, and margins are different than valuations. Right?
All have bounced back from the lows. Maybe 15% is as low as they get which is normal for most quarters.
So, buy before earnings are announced and sell immediately after the press conference. Isn't that your mantra? Guaranteed profits for all investors! Pretty simplistic and not proven by backcasting. But carry on. 15% to 20% drop normal for most quarters? What are you inhaling?
Sell before earnings and buy when it drop 15% after the earning normally before the next earning season. It works generally. Been doing it for the last couple of years since the last time you were on this board.