OT: Stock and Investment Thread

rutgersdave

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Sounds great but not supported by the data. I think you are confusing buy the rumor sell the news which is entirely different. Half the time stocks go up post earnings call and half the time they go down. If it were otherwise, investors would cause this arbitrage to disappear. But whatever floats your boat. I'm sure you'll be all cash when the market crashes.
Well, I guess there more to it and you have to have a sense when to buy and sell. It works for me for the last couple of years and I’ll stop when it doesn’t work anymore. You being in the industry can give us your advice, buy mutual funds/etf and hold.
 
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T2Kplus20

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So, buy before earnings are announced and sell immediately after the press conference. Isn't that your mantra? Guaranteed profits for all investors! Pretty simplistic and not proven by backcasting. But carry on. 15% to 20% drop normal for most quarters? What are you inhaling?
Most folks in this thread don't really believe him. 😁

Are you mostly funds/etfs or stocks?
 

patk89

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I'm overly weighted to cash which means that you have beaten the pants off of me the last several years. My only defense is that I'm older than you and have seen more bad markets. Preservation of capital becomes more important as my days dwindle.
 

RU05

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Sell before earnings and buy when it drop 15% after the earning normally before the next earning season. It works generally. Been doing it for the last couple of years since the last time you were on this board.
We went over this last earnings seasons. Stocks on average are up post earnings.
 

RU05

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I keep nibbling. Added to HOOD. Started a position in RDDT.

I need to compare the respective 6 month performances but HOOD being down significantly more then RDDT the past couple is interesting.

Edit: Also need to move some cash over and get back inti CRWD which is getting near a level which should be support.
 
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T2Kplus20

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I keep nibbling. Added to HOOD. Started a position in RDDT.

I need to compare the respective 6 month performances but HOOD being down significantly more then RDDT the past couple is interesting.

Edit: Also need to move some cash over and get back inti CRWD which is getting near a level which should be support.
Still haven't pulled the trigger on HOOD. Maybe tomorrow. NVDA may flip the market and cause a face-ripping rally. As Tom Lee says, whenever the market is scared of something untrue (i.e., economic growth collapse), sooner or later the facts win out.
 

jtung230

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Don't yell at me. Feel free to reply to Pinehurst. Regardless, you know that sales, revenues, and margins are different than valuations. Right? :)
Just trying to help you understand the difference between analysis/research vs justification
 

tom1944

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I'm overly weighted to cash which means that you have beaten the pants off of me the last several years. My only defense is that I'm older than you and have seen more bad markets. Preservation of capital becomes more important as my days dwindle.
Same. I have a number of 5%+ CD's and also sitting with a chunk of cash in my IRA. I keep thinking that I will buy an index fund with it at some point if the market takes a big enough hit. I am 67 and plan to wait until the last possible moment to start my RMD.

I do have a non-retirement index fund that I have been DCA for a few years and also a 529 fund so not completely out of stocks. About 35 to 40% stocks 60+% CD's
 
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T2Kplus20

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Same. I have a number of 5%+ CD's and also sitting with a chunk of cash in my IRA. I keep thinking that I will buy an index fund with it at some point if the market takes a big enough hit. I am 67 and plan to wait until the last possible moment to start my RMD.

I do have a non-retirement index fund that I have been DCA for a few years and also a 529 fund so not completely out of stocks. About 35 to 40% stocks 60+% CD's
If you are not using the money anytime soon, some of it should be in a broad index fund. Maybe VTI or something with lower volatility (VIG is also a good option).
 

rutgersdave

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We went over this last earnings seasons. Stocks on average are up post earnings.
Does it continue to go up for the next 2-3 months? I think you will see it fall 10-20% for these high tech stocks during the next 2-3 months. Meta earning came out Jan 29, AMZN earning Feb 6 and GOOG Feb 4.
 
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T2Kplus20

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Glad I held onto Axon although I was about to double-down at 3:30 and chickened out.
I didn't add either. It was my largest position in my personal account before the dip and my cost basis is $250. I came close, but decided to wait.

ZETA with a clean double beat and raised guidance as well. I assume any dips will be short-lived. My ZETA position now is leap calls - Jan 2027 $30. I will buy more contracts tomorrow if the dip holds.
 

T2Kplus20

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Credit card and auto loan delinquencies are hitting new highs and getting close to GFC levels but y'all party on.
Not true.

Also mortgage delinquencies rates (which are way more important than credits cards) remain very low:
The non-seasonally adjusted seriously delinquent rate, the percentage of loans that are 90 days or more past due or in the process of foreclosure, was 1.68 percent. - Feb 6, 2025

 

RU05

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Does it continue to go up for the next 2-3 months? I think you will see it fall 10-20% for these high tech stocks during the next 2-3 months. Meta earning came out Jan 29, AMZN earning Feb 6 and GOOG Feb 4.
You are aware 3 months is the quarter?

&

META was straight up for 14 straight trading days after it's earnings.
 

voltz99

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Maybe he is raising cash for a large purchase...maybe buying Bloomberg

The move to cash is interesting though as he does believe there is a dip coming
There is always a dip coming. The question is when?

Buffet has been increasing his cash for several years now.
He sold a lot of AAPL and missed the 35% gain last year. He bought SIRI. That is down 46% for the year. Oxy is down 17% for the year.


When you amass that much cash you can afford to wait around.


What is he waiting for? Market was up 20% the last two years. He would have had more cash staying invested.
 

rutgersdave

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You are aware 3 months is the quarter?

&

META was straight up for 14 straight trading days after its earnings.
The stocks dip during the quarter, watching 14 days doesn’t work. Meta was a usual situation, it isn’t 100%. Looking at your trades, most don’t make sense, it appears like you are chasing momentum.
 

rutgersdave

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Anyone have a TD Ameritrade account that was transferred to Schwab? I was using TurboTax and it wouldn’t allow me to download the Ameritrade information but was able to the downloaded Schwab info
 

RU05

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The stocks dip during the quarter, watching 14 days doesn’t work. Meta was a usual situation, it isn’t 100%. Looking at your trades, most don’t make sense, it appears like you are chasing momentum.
What does this mean? "During the qtr"? Everything is during one quarter or another.

My trades? Ya, I do chase momentum sometimes. Momentum is a fine strategy. Getting killed this last week though. Not afraid to admit it.

Up nicely today, so maybe the little selloff is over?
 

RU05

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HOOD with a PE under 30x. Is 29x expensive? A good argument could be made for no given their growth over the last 3 years.

It, like CRWD, appears to be down near a support level.
 

rutgersdave

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What does this mean? "During the qtr"? Everything is during one quarter or another.

My trades? Ya, I do chase momentum sometimes. Momentum is a fine strategy. Getting killed this last week though. Not afraid to admit it.

Up nicely today, so maybe the little selloff is over?
I would sell before earnings normally near the ATH and after earnings wait till it drop anything during the quarter sometime right after earnings or any time afterward, 1-2 months afterward, normally 10-15% drop from the ATH not the price I sold it before the earnings. I think this a safer way for me to trade. You have to decide when you want to buy it back. Sometime, it will continue to increase and never drop but you have to decide. It’s work for me but you have to be selective with the stocks.
 
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RU in IM

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Anyone have a TD Ameritrade account that was transferred to Schwab? I was using TurboTax and it wouldn’t allow me to download the Ameritrade information but was able to the downloaded Schwab info
I had a TD Ameritrade account, but it was transferred to Schwab in 2023, not 2024. So it was 100% Schwab this year.
 
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T2Kplus20

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The Godfather of AI crushes it again:

Here’s how the company did, compared with estimates from analysts polled by LSEG:

Revenue: $39.33 billion vs. $38.05 billion estimated
Earnings per share: $0.89 adjusted vs. $0.84 estimated

Nvidia said that it expected about $43 billion in first-quarter revenue, versus $41.78 billion expected per LSEG estimates.
 

Sleeping Giant

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The Godfather of AI crushes it again:

Here’s how the company did, compared with estimates from analysts polled by LSEG:

Revenue: $39.33 billion vs. $38.05 billion estimated
Earnings per share: $0.89 adjusted vs. $0.84 estimated

Nvidia said that it expected about $43 billion in first-quarter revenue, versus $41.78 billion expected per LSEG estimates.

Surprised NVDA going down after announcement?
 

T2Kplus20

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Surprised NVDA going down after announcement?
As of now, it's pretty flat. Still need to hear from Jensen during the call. Lots of bears are desperately trying to find fault with the report and guidance and it isn't going well for them. NVDA to $150+ in short order.

Blackwell demand is thru the roof. Amazing company.
 
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Sleeping Giant

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As of now, it's pretty flat. Still need to hear from Jensen during the call. Lots of bears are desperately trying to find fault with the report and guidance and it isn't going well for them. NVDA to $150+ in short order.

Blackwell demand is thru the roof. Amazing company.
Just doesn’t make sense to me when earnings are fantastic!

Why do you think Zeta has been tanking since good earnings?
 

T2Kplus20

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Just doesn’t make sense to me when earnings are fantastic!

Why do you think Zeta has been tanking since good earnings?
One of the hardest lessons for investors is that the market (especially short-term price movements) is not about good or bad news/results, it's about exceeding or missing expectations.

- An amazing report may cause a price drop because investors were expecting the results to be even better.
Or.
- An awful report may cause a price increase because investors were expecting the results to be even worse.

This can be counterintuitive and really confusing.

In my mind, the two rules of the market:
1. It's about expectations
2. It's forward-looking
 

T2Kplus20

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NVDA now up a little in extended.

From the call:

“Demand for Blackwell is amazing as reasoning AI adds another scaling law — increasing compute for training makes models smarter and increasing compute for long thinking makes the answer smarter,” said Huang in a statement. “We’ve successfully ramped up the massive-scale production of Blackwell AI supercomputers, achieving billions of dollars in sales in its first quarter. AI is advancing at light speed as agentic AI and physical AI set the stage for the next wave of AI to revolutionize the largest industries.”
 

365Poster24Seven

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NVDA now up a little in extended.

From the call:

“Demand for Blackwell is amazing as reasoning AI adds another scaling law — increasing compute for training makes models smarter and increasing compute for long thinking makes the answer smarter,” said Huang in a statement. “We’ve successfully ramped up the massive-scale production of Blackwell AI supercomputers, achieving billions of dollars in sales in its first quarter. AI is advancing at light speed as agentic AI and physical AI set the stage for the next wave of AI to revolutionize the largest industries.”
Mortimer sell sell sell lol. You make fun of a 70 year old about a weather thread but look at you in this thread.
 

RU05

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Just doesn’t make sense to me when earnings are fantastic!

Why do you think Zeta has been tanking since good earnings?
Wonder if people are still worried about the short report and thus don't believe these earnings.

But cheap with good growth and at a support level. Another stock I need to keep an eye on.
 

T2Kplus20

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Wonder if people are still worried about the short report and thus don't believe these earnings.

But cheap with good growth and at a support level. Another stock I need to keep an eye on.
Didn't get a chance today, but will buy more call contracts tomorrow. BTW, are you/anyone able to buy or sell options contracts after hours? Fidelity says that you can in a brokerage account, but I have never been successful getting an order filled.