OT: Stock and Investment Thread
- Thread starter RU05
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Model Y starts at $42K, Model 3 $38K, Cybertruck (available next year), starts at 40K. Tesla also makes the model S and X, but they're high end luxury, $80K+.
Chevy makes the Bolt starting at $36K, but it's a compact w limited range, and is practically invisible in the market.
Ford Mustang Mach E starts at $42K. Production just began.
Rivian is making delivery vans for Amazon. They also have a pickup and SUV, but both high end, and neither in production.
There are a few other start-ups, but none in production.
So here's the issue w Biden's pledge and your question. Price competitive with who? There are so few domestic EV choices right now for government vehicles. Add to that, Biden said "American UNION workers" will make these vehicles. That doesn't apply to Tesla, and probably doesn't apply to the startups either.
It's really a shame American OEMs dragged their feet on this and there was no push from the previous administration.
Tsla short.... again?!?
Some advice....go to the casino. You're odds are better
So the rant goes on, and the financial facts that Frida, I and others brought up are simply ignored. And you don't even get the facts in your rant right. Who' s holding on in Washington?
President - Biden - Silent Generation
Veep - Harris - Gen X
Senate President - Schumer - Boomer
Ranking Member -McConnell Silent Gen
Majority Leader - Pelosi - Silent Gen.
Minority Leader - McCarthy - Gen X
Looks to me you have the wrong generation holding on.
BTW - If your investment philosophy is blind rage I hope you have a barrel and suspenders ready, 'cause that's a surefire way to go broke.
But I can’t write off my loses and I’ll have to report it to the boss. No bueno.
Does your short automatically close if the price goes up in AH (with your buy stop order)?
ARKK finally bought some DKNG. That is really good news for the stock. I can see it go up to $100 at some point.
Yes, I put a stop in. Always do when I put on a short position. It’s a trade, don’t get emotionally attached.
Edit: if AH is means after hour, then no it does not.
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Not ARKK (Innovation ETF - their flagship product), but rather ARKW (Next Generation Internet ETF). Still great news for DKNG.
Bought it at 17 cents. I've already trimmed along the way but still have a good chunk left.
I don't mind that I've trimmed and it has gone up since, all part of being disciplined, but I was this close to adding more when it dipped below a dollar in early Jan, like literally set up the trade but didn't click the "submit order" button.
But I've killed this one otherwise.
Maybe you have already but could you explain what is it about this GME trade that is costing (or requiring) RH (to have) all this money that wasn't the case previously?
@ScarletNut
You mentioned SENS last week, and it pulled back since then until today when it jumped 20%, pretty much back to those same levels from when you mentioned it.
Worth watching.
You mentioned SENS last week, and it pulled back since then until today when it jumped 20%, pretty much back to those same levels from when you mentioned it.
Worth watching.
So you missed the first post I made. The point of this is not to make money, people are prepared to lose all they have in it. It’s about bleeding the hedge funds as these shorts become due. It’s about hedge funds taking abet that a retailer that currently has 5k stores with 50k employees would go broke.
no one for the most part has put any more than they are prepared to completely lose. As for going broke, I’m quite happy with my portfolio and have less than 2% of my overall portfolio invested in this. So I really don’t care if I lose it
I might add HAIL to our retirement E-Trade account (to compliment IDRV). Check it out, may be some good ideas in its portfolio:
SPDR® S&P Kensho Smart Mobility ETF
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In terms of price action UAVS(drone company) looks interesting, was trading under a dollar precovid, it has really been running the past 6 weeks, but has pulled back the past 2 weeks(though up 17% today). Most recent pull back just some profit taking along the path of a longer run?
Though on the earnings/revenues side the only positive I see for UAVS is that the sept qtr was significantly higher then previous qtrs. Otherwise they've been trending downwards for years.
It is HAIL's largest holding. Maker of drones, not one that I was familiar with. Current market cap of 670 million.
NIU has had strong rev growth. 3.5 Bil market cap.
BLNK down about 25% this week after being up 6x since Dec(I did want to buy this back when it was $10ish). Market cap of $2bil. EV charging. Looks expensive based on past revenues, but huge growth incoming in this sector. If they get the gov't contracts.......
I was up big on PLUG but sold recently. Has leveled out after a huge run, the final leg of which was 2 big overseas contracts. Hyrdorgen fuel cells. My brother wanted in because he see's all their forklifts at the AMAZON warehouses, but missed the most recent run and is waiting on a pullback. 31 bil market cap.
TSLA of course. NIO.
Nikola is interesting as well. Certainly all sorts of drama through summer and fall, but I think they are now on a steady track, under a steady ceo, towards clean hydrogen production, and we know the market loves that. Still pre rev's. Still under their spac merger pricing. 9bil market cap.
Pretty fun list there.
HAIL is very tech and innovation heavy. IDRV is more car makers and larger data/software companies. This is likely a nice combo to capture the entire value chain of emerging transportation. Just gotta figure out the best timing and price to jump in.
You are right. Thanks for the clarification. I like PENN as well. Dave Portnoy has a cult like following which will help.
Ya, Portnoy is a nice driver. Penn also has brick and mortar so they have a reopening component.
Penn has performed much better since March, pretty smooth consistent upward trend. While DKNG has been pretty erratic and is still down off it's early Oct highs.
Most of the paperwork, including current earnings, future revs, smaller market cap, favors PENN.
DKNG is faster growing, but that is easier for a smaller company.
Because they need to maintain minimum reserves before a contra party will lend them shares to give to their customers to sell short. Anyone can call themselves a broker and cross their own internal orders and call it "after hours". But when they need to settle all those trades, they have to follow the same laws all the other players have to follow.
Anyone following CYDY? Having a nice run up of late, as a promising COVID therapeutic. Forgot who it was on this board who had been championing it months ago. ???
There is a good oped in today’s Journal walking through the issue, if you’re interested. He walks through the mechanics of why brokers, and RH, needed to post collateral due to the volatility in GME along with the use of margin and options by their clients. Written by the former GC of Interactive Brokers.
It’s a glucose monitoring device that has received payment approval from Emblem Health. That’ll be a great source of revenue..
I’ve been following it since that poster first mentioned it. Seems it’s gotten approval for a phase 3 COVID therapeutic trial.
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Oops, sorry, forgot about this. Great column:
The Real Force Driving the GameStop Revolution
BY JASON ZWEIG, MARKETWATCH - 2:00 PM ET 1/31/2021
DEFAULT
This was the week when a bunch of amateur traders made Wall Street's finest look like idiots.
From Jan. 25 through Jan. 29, a ragtag army of individuals sent shares in GameStop ( GME ) Corp. up 500%, and sent many others skyrocketing too. In three days, many of these stocks gained more than most do in a decade. The hedge funds on the other side of these bets lost billions (https://www.wsj.com/articles/several-hedge-funds-stung-by-market-turmoil- 11611842693).
This movement is the culmination of nearly five decades of the democratization of markets set off by none other than the late founder of Vanguard Group, Jack Bogle (https://www.wsj.com/articles/john-c-bogle-founder-of-vanguard-group- dies-11547677745).
For all the hyperventilating over this week's financial revolution, though, investors should regard it as the latest phase in a long evolution--and unlikely to disrupt markets overall.
Still, this is a remarkable moment. It's as if a bunch of couch potatoes watching a Los Angeles Lakers basketball game on TV belted down their beer and nachos, barged onto the court--and proceeded to block LeBron James's shots and mercilessly dunk on Anthony Davis.
Amateur investors have always had advantages over professionals: They can invest for the long run and ignore the short term, since they can't get fired for underperformance and don't have clients who give them money (or take it away) at the worst time.
Now, however, amateur traders are asserting their advantages, too. They can communicate instantaneously, band together by the thousands--millions, perhaps--and buy or sell commission-free.
Thousands of members of WallStreetBets (https://www.wsj.com/articles/playing-the-market-has-a-whole-new-meaning- 11591974010), a forum at the online community reddit.com, have been leading the swarm of amateur individual traders buying stocks that hedge funds and other institutional investors were betting against.
Moving in sync and en masse, such traders can drive a stock way up or down even if each trader commits only a few dollars. Professionals, on the other hand, are legally restricted from colluding and incur much higher brokerage costs.
These new mobs of amateur traders resemble swarms of animals that often coalesce in the wild. You may have seen videos of an immense school of fish () flashing in unison through the sea or a murmuration of starlings () forming a vast swirling vortex in the sky.
These swarms shift direction in swift, coordinated bursts to find prey and evade predators (https://www.pnas.org/ content/116/41/20556).
But it's simplistic to think of this trading movement as a frontal assault on Wall Street's elite by Joe Schmo and Jane Doe.
The caricature of this new breed of fast-moving trader is a 19-year-old living in mom's basement. Locked down and bored by the pandemic, with fewer sporting events to bet on and stimulus checks (or "stimmies") burning a hole in his pocket, he gets his kicks trading stocks. Often, he buys and sells options (https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-wildly- popular-trades-behind-the-markets-swoon-and-surge-11599989400), which can produce even bigger, faster gains.
There's some truth to that stereotype. The WallStreetBets culture can be rude and crude (https://www.wsj.com/articles/ wallstreetbets-founder-reckons-with-legacy-amid-memes-loss-porn-and-online-threats-11611829800), seeking short-term thrills with no regard for risk (https://www.wsj.com/articles/playing-the-market-has-a-whole-new-meaning-11591974010). Yet some of its leaders are highly sophisticated (https://www.wsj.com/articles/keith-gill-drove-the-gamestop-reddit- mania-he-talked-to-the-journal-11611931696), and not everyone piling into stocks this week belongs to WallStreetBets.
Sean Mattingly is a 35-year-old semiconductor engineer in the Portland, Ore., area. He favors a simple, diversified portfolio of low-cost index funds that he almost never trades.
On Jan. 25, Mr. Mattingly was on Bogleheads.org (https://www.bogleheads.org/), one of his favorite websites, which advocates long-term investing. There, Mr. Mattingly stumbled on a reference to GameStop's ( GME ) wild price moves.
Cautious as he is, Mr. Mattingly likes to reserve up to 5% of his portfolio for what he calls funny money. After visiting WallStreetBets, he thought, "Wow, this might be fun. I'll take a chance and see what happens."
He bought "less than 20" shares of GameStop ( GME ) at about $110 on Jan. 26. Mr. Mattingly says it "absolutely has been fun" owning GameStop ( GME ) , which went as high as $483 this week. But, he says, "it has also been really fun to be--without expecting to--part of what is becoming a movement." (He says he sold at $400 a share on the morning of Jan. 29 and it " felt great.")
That movement is Mr. Bogle's monster love-child. It's the culmination of 45 years of relentless decline in the cost of investing that kicked off when the late Vanguard founder launched the first index mutual fund in 1975 (https:// blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2016/08/31/birth-of-the-index-mutual-fund-bogles-folly-turns-40/). Stock funds used to carry commissions of up to 8% and annual expenses as high as 2%; now you can buy index funds at zero commission and with expenses under 0.05% annually.
Decades ago (https://www.wsj.com/articles/BL-TOTALB-348), small investors might pay as much as 5% to trade a stock. A stockbroker was a 9-to-5 guy in a paneled office who picked your pocket on every trade. Nowadays, your stockbroker is in your pocket, as apps on your phone let you trade stocks at zero commissions, anytime you want.
WallStreetBets is the ultimate stage of this evolution. Thousands of people can amass small trades into giant pools of capital and whip each other into a collective frenzy.
In what neuroscientists call "dynamic coupling (https://b0e95918-69fa-461c-8a44-239d3f2b4c80.filesusr.com/ugd/b75639_ 2ebc30b974af469eadb3a7aa17ed4343.pdf)," the brain activations of different people doing the same task converge, firing in sync. In such situations, says Princeton University neuroscientist Uri Hasson (https://www.hassonlab.com/about), "I'm shaping the way you behave and you're shaping the way I'm behaving. And coordinated behavior across many, many individuals can generate dynamics that are larger than anything they could produce separately."
That can also make emotions run high. Although short-selling hedge funds are fairly small in the financial ecosystem and their managers are more often mavericks than members of the establishment, the flash mobs have sometimes portrayed them as Goliaths (https://www.wsj.com/articles/gamestop-stock-short-squeeze-ugly-side-11611750250).
And when, on Jan. 28, leading online brokerage firms restricted buy orders for some of this month's hottest stocks, thousands of small traders took to social media simultaneously to express outrage, demand redress (https://twitter.com/ search?q=robinhood gme&src=typeahead_click) and exhort each other to "HOLD THE LINE (https://twitter.com/search?q=hold the line&src=typeahead_click)," by not selling their shares.
While the David-versus-Goliath narrative was always overblown, the populist anger against brokerage firms for restricting trading is real--and immediately was mirrored in Washington (https://www.wsj.com/articles/online-brokerages- restrict-trading-on-gamestop-amc-amid-frenetic-trading-11611849934), where several (https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/ amc-gamestop-stock-market/card/NyfPXvNLfap9wTIl3Clr) members of Congress called for investigations into the matter ().
This market moment, with its surge in technology-fueled social speculation, is an echo of 1999 and early 2000, when television ads for brokerage firms (http://createsend.com/t/d-C75AD8FF7B8DA5472540EF23F30FEDED) celebrated moms day- trading in their pajamas and claimed that tow-truck drivers could afford to buy tropical islands.
It's also reminiscent of 1901, when investors with widespread access to the telegraph and telephone bubbled with enthusiasm over the new century. Total trading volume on the New York Stock Exchange doubled from the year before to a then-unheard-of 209 million shares (https://archive.org/details/newyorkstockexch01unse/page/474/mode/2up). On April 24 that year, two-thirds of all of Union Pacific(UNP) Corp.'s outstanding shares changed hands (https:// babel.hathitrust.org/cgi/pt?id=hvd.hndp4y&view=1up&seq=70). Across the NYSE, annual turnover, a measure of how fast stocks trade, hit 319% (https://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2015/04/10/why-hair-trigger-stock-traders-lose-the-race/), a record that wouldn't be surpassed for roughly another century.
At thousands of so-called bucketshops (https://doi.org/10.2307/4486233), individuals gambled on whether stock prices would go up or down without having to buy any stock. Taking directional bets as small as $5 or $10 (https://archive.org/ details/goldbricksofspec00hill/page/22/mode/2up), far below the minimum then required by legitimate firms, the bucketshops boomed--even though they were illegal in many states.
"The desire to get rich without labor has prevailed among men at all ages," wrote the journalist and economist Horace White in 1909 (https://www.jstor.org/stable/1820765), "and will doubtless continue as long as human nature remains unchanged."
That brings us back to today's flash-mob traders. Beyond the few stocks that are their favorite playthings, how have they affected the stock market as a whole?
At the SPDR S&P Retail exchange-traded fund, which seeks to own approximately equal amounts of its roughly 100 holdings, GameStop ( GME ) reached 19.9% of total assets on Jan. 27. But such small and specialized funds are only droplets in the roughly $42 trillion ocean of the U.S. stock market.
As of Dec. 31, heavily shorted stocks like AMC Entertainment Holdings(AMC) Inc., BlackBerry(BB.T) Ltd., iRobot(IRBT) Corp., and others lately favored by the flash mob (https://www.wsj.com/articles/blackberry-amc-and-other-reddit-yolo- favorites-that-arent-gamestop-11611681716) made up only 0.13% of the S&P 500 and only 4% to 5% of leading indexes of small stocks, according to Matarin Capital Management, an investment firm in New York.
By Jan. 27, the most-shorted stocks still accounted for only 0.17% of the S&P 500. They did roughly double to 8.6% of the S&P 600 Small-Cap index and 11% of the Russell Microcap index. But investors who are well diversified aren't likely to feel a major impact.
Volatility for the S&P 500 so far in 2021 is up a bit but still ranks almost exactly in the middle of its levels recorded since 1928, according to Distillate Capital Partners LLC., a Chicago-based investment firm. Even the S&P 600 index of small stocks, which includes GameStop ( GME ) and several other flash-mob favorites, has fluctuated about one-third less sharply in 2021 than its long-run average.
Taken together, these indicators suggest the flash mobs haven't had significant effects outside the two- or three- dozen stocks they love to trade the most.
The momentary computer-trading glitch that triggered the "flash crash" of May 6, 2010 (https://www.wsj.com/articles/ SB10001424052748703338004575230600732737716), was distressing to anyone who traded within a narrow time window but left longer-term investors unscathed. Similarly, this latest upheaval will likely have a bigger impact on investors' attention than on their portfolios.
The financial flash mobs may be a symbol or a symptom of the populist disruption that has swept the world in recent years. They aren't likely to be a cause of it.
Write to Jason Zweig at [email protected] (mailto:[email protected])
-Jason Zweig; 415-439-6400; [email protected]
Decades ago (https://www.wsj.com/articles/BL-TOTALB-348), small investors might pay as much as 5% to trade a stock. A stockbroker was a 9-to-5 guy in a paneled office who picked your pocket on every trade. Nowadays, your stockbroker is in your pocket, as apps on your phone let you trade stocks at zero commissions, anytime you want.
Now instead of paying 5% to a broker they pay 5% to Citadel on their zero commission, free trading app.
Now instead of paying 5% to a broker they pay 5% to Citadel on their zero commission, free trading app.
I’m glad they were prepared. Because they are losing all of it. But the pump and dump guys are laughing all the way to the bank.
I don’t know who the losers are but there are plenty. I think there will be enough losers that next time won’t be as successful.
Today is a nice day in the real stock market. AMZN and GOOG earnings after the close. I will be 15- 25% in the market after today. Nice quarter.
That was an excellent read.
T2K, can you get through the paywall on this because there are here people who really need to read it, as well as AOC and Cruz. In particular, the fact that for the broker, losses are NOT offset by gains.
There was a reason it was 140% short interest. No one short squeezes a dying business unless you can front run other people’s money (aka ponzi or pump n dump). Sad that these people got used. Hope they learned a lesson.
A lesser target of the "flash mobs" over the last 2 weeks was BGS. Started around 30, went to 47 and is now back down to 31.5. Been in this stock since around 2004 except for 6 months in 2008 when the world was collapsing. Pays a dividend around 5-6% depending on price. Risk is high leverage and dividend coverage. Short interest around 36%. Nobody will be able to retire 3 weeks after purchase but it can be a good buy and hold for income at 30 or below.