If you're oging to buy coins outright, its best to buy them on an exchange were they can be taken off the exchange if needed. Paypal and RH do not offer that.
OT: Stock and Investment Thread
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Most of my ETHE was purchased while ETH was priced between 1200 and 1300. However, I have bought some more recently in the 1500 to 1600 range, so my cost basis is creeping up. I don't like this, but I have plenty more bullets to fire when both ETH and BTC pull back. I just believe ETH has a lot of wind to its back now, so who knows how much the pull back will be. It may set a new plateau.
I’m guessing you know the following story, but it’s instructive to your point and, I think, helps clarify Lynch’s point.
In 1963, a warehouse operator in Bayonne, NJ owned a large number of soybean oil tanks. The soybean oil, stored in large tanks, would serve as collateral for, in essence, loans issued to the warehouse operator.
Every so often, a representative of the lenders would check how much oil was in the tanks. They’d climb up and insert a measuring stick at the top of the tank to see if the tank was full, and they always were. The problem with their measurements, though, was that their stick only went A yard or so into the tank. And the operator knew this. So, Mr. DeAngelis would fill his tanks with seawater and place a relatively small amount of oil on top (which, of course, floated), thus deceiving the inspectors.
Eventually, Mr. DeAngelis made contractual commitments to sell the oil, collecting fees upfront. He assumes oil prices would continue to rise, but they collapsed. Counterparties wanted the oil, and discovered it was nothing but seawater. The loans were called, and their was no collateral. But the loans were further guaranteed by American Express.
Two days later, JFK was killed in Dallas and the stock market collapsed, forcing a temporary closure of the market. In the coming week, stocks rose but Amex did not and this caught the attention of a small and unknown fund manager. Indeed, Amex was off 50% and drifted lower despite the overall increase in the market in the weeks after JFK was killed. And, of course, the issue was whether Amex’s brand was damaged by their association with De Angelis ( not to mention the financial hit to the company. The guarantees were $175mm, which was a substantial amount at the time).
So, the fund manager set out to do diligence. He visited local restaurants to see if Amex cards were still being used. He sent others to see if hotels were still receiving and accepting travelers checks. And he concluded that the consumer hadn’t cared at all about the Bayonne oil scandal, if they knew about it at all. There was no change in the use of their product. And he knew Amex had the financial wherewithal to make good on its $175mm of loan guarantees So he set to buying stock hand over fist, as much as he could without disrupting the price, He ended up making a killing on Amex.
That is the diligence, in essence, conducted by Lynch. Lynch visited malls to see traffic patterns, warehouses to see shipments and capacity. Yes, he was interested in the products, but more to see what was selling than to understand the actual product. He wanted to understand the business, and the trends.
Which leads to my final point in this lengthy post. Investors don’t need to understand the product or service, per se, as the developer of each would need to. You don’t need to know the algorithm behind google’s search engine to understand the nearly impenetrable advantage it has in search and tailored advertising. But you’d better be able to understand why the business will continue to grow and fend off competition. What’s its edge? Most business earn average rates of return on capital, and their only edge is to improve efficiency and lower costs. It’s the rare business that can earn a return on capital exceeding its cost of capital, and you do need to understand why it does to have conviction. Conviction isn’t needed in times like today, Everyone is a genius because everything just goes up. But when prices fall, and eventually they will, perhaps substantially, how will you have conviction to hold or buy more? Easy to say when everything is rosy. Harder to do when skies turn dark. When it’s time to buy, you won’t want to. That’s why you need to understand the business, it’s value drivers and what is relevant and what is not,
Just as Buffett did when he loaded up on Amex in 1963 after what’s come to be known as the Salad Oil Scandal.
Here's a good listen from an old timer who's really on top of things. BTW, no fiscal year losses in his 30 years managing investments.
The GME/NOK/BB/AMC up-and-down of the past week is an anomaly. It's not indicative of a trend of millennials buying stock in companies from their childhood. People saw an opportunity to make money and jumped on board, didn't matter what the company was. The fact that they were nostalgic brands that were more relevant when we were younger was the cause of them being heavily shorted, and them being heavily shorted was the cause of the mass purchases of stock. Many seem to be skipping that part in the middle--the possibility of making money off a short squeeze--and are instead just arriving at the conclusion that these people bought these stocks just because they knew them from their youth.
Hey, thanks for that tip on Boston Chicken back in the day, Mr. Lynch. LOL.
In all seriousness though, his books should be required reading for new investors. I saw Beating the Street on cassette at a yard sale a few months ago, and had to buy it. That audiobook made me a lot of money over the years. Of course, 15 baggers are daily occurrences now so what does he know about digital currency backed with the full faith and credit of something no one can explain.
Nice video, learned something new. XONE up 11% today.
Galaxy Digital Holdings up 22% today. Glad I bought at $7.50, but unfortunately I only bought 1/2 the position I need. So I need to wait for the next pull back.
The narrator’s hair from short to long to short was freaky. XONE has been a favorite holding of mine. Bought at 16, still own it. I think it’ll be a multi bagger
Chevy Bolt is absolutely crushing the EV market in the Midwest and rust belt. They're everywhere! Tesla doesn't stand a chance.
You might be interested in one of these. I have had Crypto20 for the past few years, but have decided that I'm probably better off just sticking with bitcoin or ethereum. Crypto10 is better but it doesn't seem like you can get it in the US. C20 is at least available on HitBTC.
Grayscale is the way to go. There are not technically "funds", but rather "trusts". You essentially buy fractional shares of coins. They are traded like ETFs.
And a few others.
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I don't think these sales #'s will scare Tesla. LOL:
Also, Ford is coming for you/Tesla!
Just wait until coin base has its IPO in a few months. Gonna be wild.
VIX is down to 20.87. A few more days like today and we will be ripe for a correction. Corrections are not a big deal for long term investors, but an opportunity for short term gains. For all you UVXY fans, time to load up on upside calls.
I'm putting $100 target on GM stock 2 years out, I also think if you want to make money off the ev movement you need to invest in rare earth mining companies. Finally if you want to be aggressive and take a shot in the dark on getting a good Lucid valuation, put some skin on Cciv.
It’s a major piece of a typical s&p 500 index fund.
I’d wager most of us should hope so.
I have no interest in a Bolt but I guess Disney does:
Whoever can create the first electric bus, I'm sure WDW would buy an s-ton of them.
As I mention in a previous post, 31 of the 47 holdings in ARKK had 1-year returns over 100%. This is not a got lucky on Tesla story. They crushed it up and down their portfolio.
But I definitely agree with you. Tesla is floating a lot of boats.....growth funds and indexes.
+1 - small scale use I assume. Most MTA buses I see are not EV (but haven't been in the city in about a year!).
Think about how well E-buses would clean up cities. Buses are the dirty as hell. MTA, NJT, and all other public mass transit entities across the nation (probably world).
Elon, get on it! LOL.
Here is the S-1 registration statement for Bitcoin Trust Grayscale. This provides valuable information on the product, market, associated risks, etc. I am not invested in Bitcoin but if I were, it’d be maybe 1%-2% of my portfolio.
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On the top of the page, click on investment products. The have a bunch of other crypto trusts, but not any of the newer/hotter ones.....Polkadot, Cardano, or Dogecoin. They also have a trust with 4 different coins, but I don't like the mix. Not nearly enough ETH.
It's all about batteries. Tesla is ready to go on the semi truck, but they're battery constrained. Plans exist for a van/shuttle, but again... batteries.
The Austin factory and Berlin will both have their own battery production lines. Both come on line this year. Going to take some time to get going. 2022 is when things get interesting.
I have an irrationally large position on CCIV/Lucid. Hoping that works out and they can compete with Tesla. The SPAC market in general is a solid play with all aspects of EV (charging, buses, garbage trucks, other commercial vehicles).
Is Tesla making there own batteries, any development partners of interest?
Here is an excellent op-Ed by Mohamed El-Erian on the Reddit rebellion and GameStop events.
They're making their own cells now in a pilot plant in Ca. Don't let the words "pilot plant" fool you. It's in the top 10 of global production. They also buy cells from LG Chem, Panasonic, and CATL.
Tesla's pilot line.
These are 4680 high nickel cells. 46 mm x 80 mm.
These will be used in Berlin & Austin model Y, semi, and Cybertruck.
All other vehicles currently used either 2170 or 1865 which are produced by their 3 suppliers.
Eventually, all production lines will move to the 4680 cell, but not all as "high nickel". There will be different battery chemistries for different vehicles. For example, China model 3 uses LFP batteries. (Lithium, Iron, Phosphate)
These are 4680 high nickel cells. 46 mm x 80 mm.
These will be used in Berlin & Austin model Y, semi, and Cybertruck.
All other vehicles currently used either 2170 or 1865 which are produced by their 3 suppliers.
Eventually, all production lines will move to the 4680 cell, but not all as "high nickel". There will be different battery chemistries for different vehicles. For example, China model 3 uses LFP batteries. (Lithium, Iron, Phosphate)
https://www.motorbiscuit.com/7-cars-hoping-to-become-the-first-true-tesla-killer/Also, Ford is coming for you/Tesla!
That article is from 2016. Still waiting.....